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Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds
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Alabama is entering a new era this season, but the Tide are still expected to heavily compete for a College Football Playoff berth in 2024.
Even with Nick Saban retiring and several key members of the 2023 team leaving, Alabama returns a loaded roster and an energized coaching staff in 2024. With the College Football Playoff set to expand to 12 teams, Alabama figures to have even more margin-for-error as it attempts to reach the CFP in Kalen DeBoer’s first season.
Alabama is +124 to reach the College Football Playoff, according to the latest odds at FanDuel. Here’s a breakdown of Alabama’s 2024 roster, returning production and schedule as it relates to the Tide’s Playoff hopes:
Alabama’s 2024 roster and returning production
Alabama lost several players from its SEC-winning team to the NFL and then had a few more transfer losses in the wake of Saban’s retirement. The result of that roster turnover is Alabama being ranked at No. 98 nationally in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ returning production rankings. But as Bill Connelly notes in that piece, a lack of returning production doesn’t necessarily mean a team can’t compete for a championship.
Still, that could be a worrying sign for Alabama backers, especially as it pertains to the defensive side of the ball. The Tide rank 121st in weighted defensive returning production per SP+.
The good news for Alabama is that it has recruited as well as anyone in the country over the last few years, and plenty of the top talents in Saban’s final classes are still in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is loaded with blue-chip recruits that it hopes will emerge as big-time contributors on defense in 2024. To name a few: Tim Keenan, Tim Smith, Jah-Marien Latham, Keanu Koht, Justin Jefferson and DeVonta Smith, amongst others.
In the transfer portal, Alabama did add a few defensive backs who could be difference-makers this season. After losing Caleb Downs, the Tide replaced him former Michigan safety Keon Sabb. Alabama also picked up potential starting cornerbacks Domani Jackson and DaShawn Jones out of the portal.
Offensively, Alabama does return a little bit more production. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is back, although there are some questions about how he will fit into the system that Kalen DeBoer ran with Michael Penix at Washington over the past 2 seasons. Per ESPN, Alabama is set to return 64% of its weighted offensive production from last season, which ranks 58th nationally.
Germie Bernard is the name to know on offense. He made the biggest play of the day in Alabama’s spring game and looks to be a legitimate deep threat after transferring from Washington this offseason. Kendrick Law and Kobe Prentice are both back and seem poised for bigger roles this season after making double-digit catches a year ago.
Kadyn Proctor is back to anchor Alabama’s offensive line on the left side. Parker Brailsford is another Washington transfer who should slot in as the Tide’s starting center. Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts are also returning and are the presumed starters at guard for Alabama. The only OL question mark entering fall camp is at right tackle, but Alabama has several talented options to choose from for that role.
Interested in joining a sportsbook this summer? Here’s Saturday Down South’s breakdown of all the best betting apps for real money that are available in 2024!
Alabama’s 2024 schedule
Like every team in the SEC, Alabama will have a different schedule in 2024 than it’s used to. The SEC no longer uses a divisional structure, which resulted in former SEC West foes Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Arkansas falling off of Alabama’s 2024 slate.
Alabama will face SEC newcomer Oklahoma this season in Norman. That meeting will come during the penultimate week of the season on Nov. 23 — when both teams could still be in contention for a College Football Playoff berth.
Here’s a look at Alabama’s full 2024 schedule:
- Aug. 31: Western Kentucky
- Sept. 7: South Florida
- Sept. 14: at Wisconsin
- Sept. 28: Georgia
- Oct. 5: at Vanderbilt
- Oct. 12: South Carolina
- Oct. 19: at Tennessee
- Oct. 26: Missouri
- Nov. 9: at LSU
- Nov. 16: Mercer
- Nov. 23: at Oklahoma
- Nov. 30: Auburn
Even with only 2 old SEC West foes on the schedule, this is a very tough slate for the Crimson Tide. They’ll face CFP hopefuls Georgia and Missouri at home while taking trips to Tennessee and Oklahoma in the second half of the season. Alabama also has a very difficult nonconference road trip on the schedule this year with its Week 3 meeting against Wisconsin.
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff in 2024?
Given Alabama’s strength of schedule and the expanded College Football Playoff, a 10-2 record should be enough for the Tide to comfortably make the 12-team field. Even at 9-3, Alabama would likely be in consideration for a spot in the CFP when the selection committee finalizes its rankings.
ESPN’s SP+ gives Alabama a 52.3% chance of going 10-2 or better during the regular season. With that in mind, FanDuel seems to be offering a more-than0fair price at +124 for Alabama to reach the Playoff. That +124 price equates to implied odds of 44.64%, which is well below SP+’s projection for Alabama to meet the 10-2 threshold.
The picture gets even rosier for Alabama if you prefer ESPN’s Football Power Index. FPI gives Alabama a 57.2% chance to reach the College Football Playoff in 2024. Given the +124 price, that translates to an expected value of $28.13 for bettors who place a $100 wager on Alabama to make the Playoff.
Even with all the question marks surrounding Alabama this offseason, there appears to be a surprising amount of value on backing the Tide to reach the 12-team Playoff in DeBoer’s first season.
PICK: Alabama to make the College Football Playoff (+124 at FanDuel)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
