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Hugh Freeze did something that his predecessor failed to do. That is, get a Year 3.
We can argue how much of Freeze’s 11-14 mark through 2 years was the aftermath of the Bryan Harsin era, but there’s no arguing against the notion that the honeymoon phase is over.
Freeze’s seat is the hottest of any SEC coach in 2025. That includes Billy Napier, Sam Pittman, Brent Venables and Mark Stoops. Why? Isn’t Auburn the program that would like to avoid another coach buyout after the $37 million it committed to paying Gus Malzahn and Harsin to go away? Ideally, yes. It’s also the program that would be on the hook for about $15 million for Freeze’s post-2025 buyout if it moved on from a 3rd coach in the 2020s. But $15 million doesn’t sound quite as bad when you realize that unlike Malzahn and Harsin, who were owed 50% of their respective buyouts within 30 days, Freeze’s payments would be monthly installments that would be spread out through 2028.
Again, it’s not ideal. You know what else isn’t ideal, though? Four consecutive losing seasons in the post-Malzahn era. Freeze might only be responsible for 2 of those, but he’s also responsible for the first Auburn season that ever included 3 pre-October losses at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Even worse, those 3 losses all came against teams that went 6-6 in the regular season. And just in case you forgot, Auburn later suffered a 10-point home loss to 6-6 Vanderbilt, which marked the second consecutive year that Diego Pavia led an upset victory at Jordan-Hare.
A 6-6 regular season in 2025 shouldn’t give Freeze a Year 4. It should instead give him an 8-figure buyout, albeit one that could be slightly less than his predecessors on The Plains. If Freeze can’t put together an 8-4 season in which he gets Auburn back to some sort of national relevance — something that Vegas doesn’t feel is that far-fetched with the 19th-best odds to win the national title on DraftKings — what would be redeemable about that 3-year stretch?
He’s not in the position of someone like Napier, who had the benefit of watching 5-star DJ Lagway emerge as a true freshman, which ultimately gave his head coach a longer leash. Well, not unless 5-star true freshman Deuce Knight climbs the depth chart and plays roughly half a season with plenty of dazzling plays like Lagway made.
Freeze’s buyout is less than half of Venables’ post-2025 buyout of $35 million, which was the byproduct of the raise he got last summer a week before Oklahoma was set to join the SEC.
Pittman might feel a bit stale to some Arkansas fans, but he’s still coming off a 3-win improvement season wherein he posted a winning season, AKA the thing that continues to elude Auburn post-Malzahn.
And for all the angst about Stoops’ struggles the past 3 years, he’s still the winningest program in UK history — he’s also the longest-tenured SEC coach — who has a buyout of around $37 million.
Freeze has … some elite recruiting classes. That’s about it. One shouldn’t diminish the significance of that — go back to the Harsin era and talk to me about signing/keeping blue-chip talent — but that alone won’t save him.
Yes, for now, it is just the recruiting. That’s the only thing that Freeze has delivered on in 2-plus years on the job. It’s fair to mention that Auburn just had its first top-40 passing offense since 1997. It’s also fair to mention that his decision to double down on turnover-happy Payton Thorne played a massive role in a 5-7 season in Year 2. Freeze, the quarterback whisper, has instead yelled a loud, Toby Keith-like message (RIP) about his evaluation of the position.
“I AIN’T AS GOOD AS I ONCE WAS … “
So now, that’ll likely be up to another transfer quarterback to turn around Auburn’s offense. Former 5-star quarterback and Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold will be the favorite to win the offseason job, though Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels could have a say in that. Freeze doesn’t have to defer to who was more decorated as a recruit or who looks like the quarterback of the future. His starter will have a short leash, especially if there are any 2023-24 flashbacks with turnovers.
But that was just on the previous quarterback room, not Freeze … according to Freeze.
For what it’s worth, Freeze’s teams turned the ball over at least 20 times and they averaged at least 1 interception per game in each of the past 4 seasons. In fact, Freeze’s teams averaged at least 1 interception per game in all 7 of his seasons as an SEC head coach. His starting quarterback finished in the top 2 in interceptions thrown in 5 of those 7 seasons as an SEC head coach. Go figure that 2024 wasn’t one of those seasons.
(Thorne averaged 1 interception for every 35.2 throws in 2024, which was a worse INT rate than 3 of the 4 SEC quarterbacks who threw more picks than him.)
That context is important because if history repeats itself in Auburn losses, Freeze won’t be able to throw his new-look quarterback room under the bus. Or at the very least, it’s going to be a much greater indictment on his offensive acumen, especially with the Cam Coleman-led group of receivers that appear to be among the most talented that Auburn has ever had.
That’s not to say Freeze will be fired if his offense fails to light up scoreboards on a weekly basis. Lord knows that style points aren’t in demand for a team that’s trying to end its longest consecutive streak of losing seasons since the Harry Truman administration. If Freeze can win 8 games with nothing but field goals and safeties, Auburn fans would take it.
After all, desperate times call for desperate measures. These are indeed desperate times on The Plains. In the new SEC, Auburn couldn’t even manage to look the part against struggling newbie Oklahoma, which was staring at a double-digit deficit with a run-first, true freshman backup quarterback. But like Auburn did 3 times in the 4th quarter, it blew a late lead. The only Power Conference team that Auburn outscored in the 4th quarter in 2024 was 4-8 Kentucky. Auburn was -42 in those spots.
It might only be Year 3, but this feels like it could be the 4th quarter for the Freeze era. Another year of mediocrity would be a brutal pill to swallow for a program that so desperately wanted to move away from the Harsin-era cloud and get back to the highs that the 2010s delivered. Freeze’s days are numbered if that continues in 2025.
Anything short of a bounce-back season on The Plains and “I ain’t as good as I once was” will be all over Freeze’s Auburn eulogy.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
