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Clemson suffered a devastating loss to Louisville last weekend, 33-21.
The defeat represented a significant setback for a program that was hoping to compete for a College Football Playoff berth in 2024. There are only 2 ACC teams undefeated in league play: Miami and SMU. That will make it difficult — though not completely impossible — for Clemson (5-1 in the ACC) to reach the ACC title game.
Without further adieu, let’s dig into the ACC tiebreaker scenarios and other possible paths forward for Clemson:
Scenario 1: 3-way tie
While Clemson is 1 of 3 teams just 1 game behind Miami in the loss column, a 4-way tie consisting of 7-1 teams atop the league is impossible. That’s because Clemson and Pitt play each other in Week 12, meaning 1 of those teams is guaranteed to pick up a 2nd conference loss. For the sake of this exercise, we’ll assume Clemson beats the Panthers.
So let’s take a look at the scenario where Clemson, Miami and SMU are all tied at 7-1 in ACC play. In that scenario, the ACC’s tiebreaker rules dictate that it will be decided by winning percentage against common opponents. In this case, the only common opponents between all 3 programs are Florida State and Louisville. Miami and SMU are both 2-0 in those games while Clemson lost to the Cardinals.
That means Clemson would lose out on an ACC Championship Game berth in this scenario.
Scenario 2: Head-to-head ties with Miami, SMU
There’s also the scenario of a 2-way tie for second place. If Miami or SMU were to run the table at 8-0 but the other drops a game, it sets up a potential head-to-head tie with Clemson for second place.
Clemson didn’t play either team so, per ACC rules, the tie would once again be broken by winning percentage versus all common opponents.
Clemson and SMU have a 5 common opponents: Stanford, Florida State, Virginia, Louisville and Pitt. Assuming Clemson wins out, it would be 4-1 against those teams with the lone loss coming to Louisville. The Mustangs are 4-0 against that group with a game remaining against Virginia. If SMU’s loss — in this hypothetical scenario — comes to anyone other than Virginia, the Mustangs would get the nod for the second ACC title game spot.
If SMU loses to the Cavaliers and finishes 7-1, both would be 4-1 against common opponents, so the next tiebreaker would go into effect. In that scenario, the tie would be broken by winning percentage versus common opponents based on order of finish. SMU is still likely to win that tiebreaker as well, as Louisville (4-2) figures to finish higher than Virginia (2-3) in the ACC standings.
If Clemson ends up tied with just Miami, there are 4 common opponents: Florida State, Louisville, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. Clemson’s loss to Louisville means the Tigers are 3-1 — at best (they still have to play Va. Tech). Miami still has 1 game to play against that quartet: against Wake Forest in Week 13. If Miami loses to Wake Forest, it goes to the next tiebreaker. But similarly to the SMU result, Clemson likely loses the next tiebreaker as well because Louisville (4-2) is projected to finish above Wake Forest (2-2) in the ACC standings.
In short, Clemson would very likely lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with either Miami or SMU.
Scenario 3: SMU or Miami collapse
Given that Clemson’s tiebreaker situation looks bleak against Miami and SMU, the Tigers’ cleanest path to the ACC Championship Game appears to be complete collapse from either of those programs.
Two losses from SMU or Miami, at this stage of the season, would be very unlikely, but that’s what it would take for the Tigers to get back to the ACC title game. ESPN’s FPI gives SMU an 87.4% chance to beat Boston College, an 81.8% chance to beat Virginia and a 76.1% chance to beat Cal. That equates to about 2.5 expected wins over the final 3 games. FPI’s numbers imply just an 8.6% chance that the Mustangs drop at least 2 of those remaining games.
For Miami, FPI gives the Hurricanes a 76.9% chance to beat Georgia Tech, a 96.7% chance to beat Wake Forest and an 86% chance to win at Syracuse. That translates to just a hair under 2.6 expected wins in those 3 games. FPI’s numbers indicate a probability of 4.2% chance that Miami loses at least 2 of those games.
It’s bleak either way, but that appears to be the only path for Clemson to make a return to the ACC Championship Game in 2024.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
