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The Iron Bowl of Basketball absolutely lived up to the hype. Auburn jumped out in front. Alabama fought back in the second half with some massive shots from Mark Sears. Auburn closed with the kind of run — 8 makes on its final 10 shots — that reminded any doubters that this is, in fact, the best team in basketball.
Auburn is now the outright favorite to win the national championship, with +325 odds at BetMGM.
Saturday’s win over Alabama was Auburn’s 14th Quad 1 win so far this season. The Tigers have 4 Quad 1 games left on the schedule. They’ll have a chance to surpass the 17 Q1 wins last year’s national champ, UConn, had all season.
The Huskies had 17 Q1 victories during their run to the title in 2023-24.
Kansas led the nation with 17 Q1 wins during the 2022-23 season. (UConn, the national champ that year, finished with 12 Q1 victories.) Kansas also led the nation in Q1 victories (16) during its national title season in 2021-22. Baylor led the country (13) during its title-winning season in 2020-21.
There’s a possibility the Tigers enter the NCAA Tournament with more Q1 victories already than any of the previous 4 national champions had during their respective title seasons.
During ESPN’s weekend coverage of the IBOB, it was suggested that SEC teams might actually find their own conference tournament more grueling than the NCAA Tournament. And it’s not that far-fetched. The SEC has become a murderer’s row for everyone. And that will likely pay dividends once March Madness begins. There may not be a more battle-tested team in the country than Auburn.
But does that guarantee that a national championship will be won by the SEC? Perhaps not.
There are 1 or 2 teams who will have something to say come March…
Here are a handful of trends I’m buying and/or selling in college basketball right now.
Take: Auburn is the best bet to win the national championship
Bruce Pearl’s group took 59 of 60 first-place votes in this week’s AP poll. You’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who would go against the Tigers right now. And that’s fair. Auburn has a head-to-head win over 2 of the other 4 teams inside the AP poll’s top 5, both of which came away from home.
But Auburn’s price at BetMGM implies a level of certainty that seems a little foolish a week removed from a 9-point loss in its own building. Auburn could very well win the national championship, but Bart Torvik’s model forecasts just a 16.4% chance to do so.
And if you trust Torvik’s forecasting — I do — Houston becomes an easy team to back.
According to Bart Torvik’s projections, the Cougars have an 18.1% chance to win the title. At BetMGM, Houston is priced at +900 to win it all.
And I’ve been on Houston already. In this space last week, I suggested backing Houston to win the Big 12’s regular-season title when the Cougars were -165 at FanDuel. After publication, Arizona lost a 3-point road game at Kansas State and then lost at home to Houston by 4 points.
Now, the Cougars are -500 to win the Big 12 at FanDuel.
Houston has won 17 of its last 18 games, with the only defeat coming by 1 point to Texas Tech in overtime on Feb. 1. Houston has an overtime road win at Kansas and now a road win at Arizona. While Kelvin Sampson’s squad did lose to both Auburn and Alabama in nonconference play, they fit the national champion criteria as a team with a top-20 offensive and defensive rating in KenPom.
With a veteran rotation that has played a ton of basketball together and one of the most torturous defenses in all of college basketball to go against, Houston checks all the boxes you want from a title contender.
And Saturday’s win in Tucson — a very tough place to play — was convincing. The Cougars trailed by 7 midway through the second half and then held the Wildcats without a field goal for more than 6 minutes to completely flip the game and go up 7 themselves.
The win was Houston’s 11th consecutive victory on the road, which represents the longest road winning streak in the country.
Houston has underperformed against its seed expectations over the last 2 seasons, with Sweet 16 exits as a No. 1 in each of the last 2 tournaments.
In Saturday’s early bracket preview from the tournament selection committee, Houston was a 2-seed in the West Region alongside top-seeded Florida, 3-seed Kentucky, and 4-seed Michigan.
Since Villanova’s win as a 2-seed in 2018, a No. 1 seed has won the title in 4 of the last 5 seasons. Could Houston buck that trend? Potentially. And the number on the board at BetMGM is too good to pass up right now.
Verdict: SELL
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Take: Kentucky is trending toward another early exit in the NCAA Tournament
Down 2 starters on the road, Kentucky ran out of gas late against Texas. The Wildcats had a 5-point lead with 3:51 to play, then missed 4 consecutive shots while turning it over twice. Texas made 5 of its final 6 shots from the field to pull out a 4-point win.
Kentucky is going to be a tough team for opponents to deal with in the NCAA Tournament. Big man Amari Williams has a triple-double with assists this season; he’s a player who can cause a ton of matchup issues for teams that either don’t have a ton of height or don’t have athletic bigs (which would be a ton of teams). Williams is super skilled, and he’s surrounded by some excellent shooters.
And Kentucky has proven to be a problem for teams throughout this regular season. The Wildcats are 7-2 against ranked opponents this year. They have 5 wins over AP top 10 teams, including 2 wins over teams that are currently projected to be No. 1 seeds.
But Kentucky is also 2-6 against unranked power conference teams this season. On 3 separate occasions, Kentucky has immediately followed up a win over a top-10 opponent with a loss to an unranked opponent.
As March approaches, there’s concern that this Kentucky team might be a little too volatile and therefore a little too prone to an early tournament exit.
And early exits are part of the reason John Calipari is no longer in Lexington. Kentucky has 2 first-round exits in the last 3 years and has underperformed its seed expectation in all 3 tournament appearances. The Wildcats have 1 NCAA Tournament win in the last 5 years.
Pope has been a breath of fresh air as Calipari’s replacement, but another poor showing in the Big Dance will try Kentucky fans’ patience.
For what it’s worth, Pope believes the losses Kentucky has endured during the regular season will aid it in the postseason.
“I have a good team. Like the guys on the court are good players. And we’re good enough to win,” head coach Mark Pope said after the game. “These guys have proven that. We just didn’t do it in the last three minutes and 45 seconds tonight. That’s just it. It was tonight, and it’s super painful, it’s not acceptable, all those things are true. But we have the guys we need to win and we’re going to figure out a way to do it.
“… Listen, if we do this right, these moments are the moments that we’re going to get to replay again, and we’re going to do them right.”
The other point worth making here is that Kentucky hasn’t really had a consistently full-strength rotation of late. Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson missed the Texas game. Butler also missed the Arkansas game, and Andrew Carr played just 15 minutes off the bench. Carr missed the Vanderbilt game. Kerr Kriisa hasn’t played since Dec. 7.
If Kentucky can get healthy heading into the tournament, I like this team’s potential to make it beyond the opening weekend. As a 3 or a 4 seed, a couple of wins and a Sweet 16 appearance wouldn’t be a bad way to begin the Pope era.
Verdict: SELL
Take: The SEC will get 14 teams into the NCAA Tournament
Five teams from the Southeastern Conference currently sit on the bubble in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket projections for ESPN. Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas are 3 of the last 4 teams to get a bye into the field. Arkansas and Georgia are the last 2 teams in, according to Lunardi.
As things stand, Lunardi is projecting 14 teams from the SEC to make the Tournament. At FanDuel, Arkansas (+104 to get in) and Georgia (+112) are viewed as more likely to miss the field of 68.
Arkansas travels to Auburn on Wednesday. Then it has remaining games against Mizzou, Texas, and Mississippi State at home, with South Carolina and Vanderbilt on the road. With only 3 Quad 1 wins, a 1-2 record in Quad 2 games, and a bad nonconference schedule, Arkansas needs to beat another ranked opponent.
Georgia travels to Auburn on Saturday. Then it faces Florida and Vanderbilt at home while facing Texas and South Carolina on the road. Georgia’s nonconference schedule was also bad, and the Bulldogs only have 2 Q1 victories.
Maybe the SEC’s bubble teams eat each other. Maybe things get weird inside Stegeman Coliseum — where the Dawgs have been formidable all year — when Florida visits on Feb. 25.
From this group of 5, I think it’s more likely than not that at least 1 falls out of the tournament over the last few weeks of the season. I don’t trust Arkansas to pull off an upset, and it doesn’t seem like Coach Cal has much faith in his current team either.
Oklahoma is trending in the wrong direction after blowing a lead at home to lowly LSU. And the Sooners face 5 consecutive ranked opponents before closing out the regular season on the road against Texas. With some groans starting to intensify about the job Porter Moser is doing, there’s a non-zero chance the bottom falls out in Norman. OU has lost 4 straight and looked uncompetitive in the last 3 games it played against ranked teams. Up next? A trip to No. 2 Florida.
At Bracket Matrix, Georgia is viewed as the most vulnerable, appearing in only 59.8% of tracked brackets. The Bulldogs are -146 to miss the NCAA Tournament at FanDuel.
Oklahoma isn’t available, but that’s who I’d bet on to miss the field if I could.
Verdict: SELL
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GET BONUS!Take: Johni Broome can win the Wooden Award
Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Auburn’s Johni Broome headlined the late midseason top-20 list announced by the Wooden Award last week. It was wholly unsurprising given those 2 have been viewed as the top contenders for the honor since before Christmas.
Flagg has had a sensational freshman season for the Blue Devils. He scored an ACC freshman record 42 points in January and has averaged 22 points a game on 53% shooting in ACC play.
Broome looked like the front-runner for the award before an ankle sprain sidelined him for 2 games last month. Now, every major betting app views Flagg as the favorite.
At Caesars, Flagg is -450 to win the Wooden Award. Broome ranges from +100 to +150 at the big shops.
I think Broome can bridge the gap. Flagg doesn’t play another meaningful game the rest of the regular season — unless you consider an awful North Carolina team meaningful. Auburn, on the other hand, closes out the year with 4 consecutive games against ranked opponents.
The Tigers host Ole Miss on Feb. 26. Then they travel to Kentucky and Texas A&M. They close the regular season at home against Alabama on March 8.
Considering Pt. 1 of the IBOB was outstanding theater, Broome will have center stage to present his case on the final day of the regular season. Against the Tide on Saturday, Broome had 19 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 blocks, and a steal. A few more games like that against big-name competition will be hard to ignore.
Entering Monday night’s games, Broome ranked second nationally in PER (33.9). Flagg was not in the top 10 (29.5). Broome ranked fifth nationally in win shares per 40 minutes (.288). Flagg ranked fourth (.293). Broome ranked first among all players in box plus/minus (16.1). Flagg ranked second (15.8).
EvanMiya ranks Broome as the second-most indispensable player in college basketball. Flagg is third.
Broome ranks first in BPR, per EvanMiya. Flagg ranks second.
Broome — who is +150 to win the award at Caesars — is just as deserving as Flagg. He’d have my vote, if I had one.
Verdict: BUY
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
