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College basketball futures market analysis: Conference tournament picks, other best bets
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Several college basketball conferences have already entered the postseason, and the rest of the high-major leagues will join them next week.
Several sports betting apps have posted odds for several low-major conference tournaments. In this story, I’ll break down those odds by comparing them to public projection models to try to identify the best-value bets. As in previous editions, I’ll also include some honorable mentions that cover some NCAA Tournament futures (such as Final Four and national championship odds) for high-major programs.
A couple of important notes before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to betting odds from a sportsbook. 2) After calculating the expected value of dozens potential futures bets, these are the 5 highest-expected value bets for conference tournament winners on the board entering the weekend:
St. John’s to win the Big East Tournament (+1600 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 5.88%
- BartTorvik odds: 15.9%
- Expected value: $170.30 on a $100 wager
St. John’s has been included in each of the past couple futures market updates, and BartTorvik’s model is still bullish on the Red Storm. The Big East is extremely competitive at the top, but there’s enough value on St. John’s here to win the conference title that it’s worth a sprinkle.
Lehigh to win the Patriot League Tournament (+650 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 13.33%
- BartTorvik odds: 23.5%
- Expected value: $576.25 on a $100 wager
Lehigh is the second-favorite to win the Patriot League Tournament behind Colgate, but BartTorvik’s model prefers to the value on the Mountain Hawks. Lehigh has already advanced to the semifinals of this tournament, so it is just 2 victories away from the auto-bid. It has drawn Boston in the semis, which is both good and bad for Lehigh’s title hopes. It means the Mountain Hawks have avoided Colgate for at least another round, but they are 0-2 against Boston this season — although those 2 losses came by a combined 3 points.
Montana State to win the Big Sky Tournament (+2000 on Caesars)
- Implied odds: 4.76%
- BartTorvik odds: 7.8%
- Expected value: $63.80 on a $100 wager
This is a long-shot, but this prop is miss-priced according to BartTorvik’s model. There’s quite a bit of value on the Bobcats, who are the No. 5 seed in this tournament. The Big Sky Tournament gets underway on Saturday, but Montana State won’t play its first game until Monday evening.
South Dakota State to win the Summit League Tournament (+155 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 39.22%
- BartTorvik odds: 57.7%
- Expected value: $47.14 on a $100 wager
South Dakota State is the favorite to win the Summit League Tournament this week — but not by a big enough margin. The Jackrabbits have the No. 2 offense and the No. 3 defense in this league, according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics.
Central Connecticut to win the Northeast Conference Tournament (+125 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 44.44%
- BartTorvik odds: 63.2%
- Expected value: $42.20 on a $100 wager
Central Connecticut is by far BartTorvik’s choice to win this league. The No. 1-seeded Blue Devils are already through to the semifinals of this tournament and will face No. 6-seeded Wagner on Saturday. Central Connecticut is 2-0 against Wagner this season, although both games were decided by just a single point.
Honorable mentions and high-major picks
Houston to win the national title | +700 on FanDuel | Expected value on a $100 bet: $81.60
Houston has been undervalued by the market for the last few weeks, and that does not appear to be changing. The Cougars also have value on reach the Final Four (with an EV of $26.88) entering the final weekend of the regular season.
Gonzaga to make the Final Four | +1900 on FanDuel | Expected value on a $100 bet: $51.80
This is a long-shot, but Gonzaga has a lot of NCAA Tournament pedigree under coach Mark Few. The Bulldogs also earned a big win recently over rival Saint Mary’s and appears to be heading into the NCAA Tournament on a high note.
Auburn to win the national title | +2500 on FanDuel | Expected value on a $100 bet: $32.60
Auburn hasn’t always performed against other elite teams this season, but the Tigers are one of a few teams in the country that are top-15 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Auburn also has a big opportunity next week to solidify its seeding at the SEC Tournament. The Tigers should probably be getting more respect in the betting markets as a true title contender.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
