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There’s still a few weeks left in the college basketball regular season, and there are plenty of teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble who hope to be Dancing this March.
As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings is offering odds on 11 Division 1 teams — who appear to be on the bubble as of Feb. 28 — to either make or miss the NCAA Tournament.
Here’s a chart of the 11 teams and their odds to either make or miss the tournament, via DraftKings. The chart also includes implied odds for both outcomes:
| Team | Odds to make it | Implied odds | Odds to miss it | Implied odds |
| Providence | -120 | 54.55% | -110 | 52.38% |
| Drake | +265 | 27.40% | -370 | 72.72% |
| Indiana State | -115 | 53.49% | -115 | 53.49% |
| Colorado | 145 | 40.82% | -185 | 64.91% |
| Texas A&M | +245 | 22.89% | -350 | 77.78% |
| St. John’s | +145 | 40.82% | -185 | 64.91% |
| Virginia | -155 | 60.78% | +120 | 45.45% |
| Seton Hall | -150 | 60.00% | +120 | 45.45% |
| Utah | 215 | 31.75% | -295 | 74.68% |
| Grand Canyon | -135 | 57.45% | +105 | 48.78% |
| SMU | +340 | 22.73% | -500 | 83.33% |
Using BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model, we can calculate which of those bets has the best value. BartTorvik’s model attempts to project the 68-team field based on the strength of each team as well as remaining schedules — it is not reflective of what the field of 68 would look like if the Tournament started today.
Last week in this story, the 3 best-value bets were Ole Miss to miss the tournament (-230), Wake Forest to make the tournament (-188) and St. John’s to make the tournament (+390). Since then, the Rebels have fallen out of the bubble picture after going 0-2 last week. Wake Forest and St. John’s both helped themselves with wins over Duke and Creighton, respectively. Wake does not currently have odds to make the NCAA Tournament on Draft Kings but is north of 80% to do so, per BartTorvik. Odds for St. John’s have improved significantly from +390 to +145 since last week.
Here are the 3 best-value bets for this week:
3 best bets
St. John’s to make the NCAA Tournament (+145)
- KenPom ranking:Â 41st
- NET ranking:Â 44th
- Quad 1 games remaining: 1
If you missed out on backing the Red Storm last week, don’t worry, there’s still value on Rick Pitino’s squad to go Dancing. BartTorvik gives St. John’s a 67.2% chance to earn a NCAA Tournament bid. That includes some considerable equity — nearly 15% — in earning the Big East’s automatic bid through the conference tournament.
St. John’s does have a crucial game coming up on Wednesday as it’s set to face Butler on the road. Butler currently ranks in the top-70 of the NET, meaning this would be a Quad 1 win for St. John’s if it can pull through and earn the victory. Given that St. John’s is currently 2-9 in Quad 1 opportunities, a win would mean a great deal to its résumé.
However, a loss would not necessarily ruin St. John’s NCAA Tournament hopes. The Red Storm could very well have at least one more Quad 1 opportunity in the Big East Tournament — they also have an outside shot at winning the whole thing, which would avoid any sort of sweat for this bet on Selection Sunday. The expected value for this bet at +145 comes out to $64.64 (on a $100 wager).
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SMU to make the NCAA Tournament (+340)
- KenPom ranking:Â 46th
- NET ranking:Â 43rd
- Quad 1 games remaining: 0
This is a long-shot based on SMU’s chances of winning the AAC Tournament and earning an automatic bid to the Big Dance. The Mustangs don’t have a Quad 1 win yet and are highly-unlikely to be considered for an at-large spot. However, BartTorvik gives them a 28.6% chance to win the AAC Tournament — better than the 22.73% implied odds from the +340 price offered by DraftKings.
SMU is currently 10-5 in the American, which is good enough for 5th in the conference standings. However, per BartTorvik, the Mustangs have the best odds to win the conference tournament of any team in the league. That’s including Florida Atlantic, who is on pace to earn an at-large bid following their trip to the Final Four a year ago. The discrepancy between SMU’s record and its projected odds of winning the league title are why there’s an expected value of $25.84 on this bet (based on a $100 wager).
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Colorado to make the NCAA Tournament (+145)
- KenPom ranking:Â 30th
- NET ranking:Â 32nd
- Quad 1 games remaining: 1
Colorado, frankly, has too much talent to even be in this position. The Buffs have dropped some games they shouldn’t have this year, and will likely have to sweat out Selection Sunday as a result. But at +145, we’re getting a great price to bet on them to make the Tournament. BartTorvik makes the odds of Colorado to reach the field of 68 nearly a pure coin flip — 50.2%.
Colorado is 1-5 in Quad 1 games, but the Buffs don’t have any Quad 3 or 4 losses — something that will stand out amongst most other bubble-hopefuls. Colorado does have one remaining Quad 1 games left in the regular season, and it’s very winnable opportunity — on the road against Oregon next Wednesday. Win that one in Eugene and Colorado’s NCAA Tournament hopes start to look a whole lot brighter. But even now, these odds carry an expected value of $22.99 (based on a $100 wager).
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
