NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Has the light finally come on for North Carolina?

Has North Carolina finally figured things out and flipped the switch before it’s too late? Or have the Tar Heels just looked good over these past 4 games because of the quality of teams they’ve played?

Those are questions that can’t be answered until the final day of the regular season when UNC gets another crack at rival Duke.

This time at the Dean Dome.

Until then, Hubert Davis and his team are doing what they can to stay close to the NCAA bubble by playing their most sustained stretch of good basketball of the season. And beating the teams it’s supposed to beat.

Monday night’s 96-85 win at Florida State was the Tar Heels’ fourth straight. It improved the Tar Heels’ record to 18-11 (11-6 ACC) and ensured that they’ll at least stay in their current No. 45 spot in the NET rankings.

As was the case with previous victories against Syracuse, NC State and Virginia, the Quad 2 win in Tallahassee isn’t the type that will necessarily get UNC into the 68-team field. But at least it wasn’t the kind of loss that could potentially knock them out.

Which is virtually any loss from here on out.

“We’re in the mindset of there’s no other option but to win,” junior forward Ven-Allen Lubin said after Saturday’s 81-66 mastery of UVA in Chapel Hill. “We’re going to do everything we can to do that,”

Whatever margin for error the Tar Heels had was lost during a 7-day stretch earlier this month when they fell behind by 32 in the second half on the way to a loss at Duke, followed by an equally lopsided beatdown at the hands of Clemson.

If that 20-point setback turns out to be rock bottom, then the week that followed it will be remembered as a turning point.

UNC used the open date in its schedule to its advantage by practicing with a greater sense of urgency while working to address the issues that have plagued it since the start of the season.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that the Tar Heels have looked like a different team since then.

“Our practices from that point on have been different,” Davis said. “They’ve been feisty, extremely competitive and short-tempered. The competitive fight has been there and whatever it ends up in terms of what it looks like, I just feel like we’re getting better.”

Asked what took so long for the light to come on, Davis replied simply: “Who cares? It’s here now.”

The contrast has been most noticeable in the paint and on the glass. After ranking either first or second in the ACC in rebounding margin in every season over the past decade, this year’s margin of plus-2.2 is just eighth in the league, well off the usual pace.

And yet, since the Clemson game, the Tar Heels have outrebounded their opponents by a UNC-like 146-103. And their 51 offensive rebounds during that stretch have produced 75 second-chance points. Including a season-high 24 against Floria State.

It’s a transformation that has been brought about in equal parts by effort, a taller lineup with the insertion of 6-6 freshman Drake Powell into the starting lineup and the re-awakening of big man Jae’Lyn Withers.

The 6-9 graduate student had become an afterthought in UNC’s rotation from mid-January to mid-February when he played double-figure minutes only 3 times in 8 games. He’s averaged 23.5 minutes during this 4-game winning streak, contributing 13.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game while making 10 of his 16 3-point attempts.

“This is his last year. You see the end and you can see things from a different perspective,” Davis said of Withers. “I think that perspective has really helped out J-Whit from the standpoint of really wanting to be consistent and solid in his play on both ends of the floor. That’s what he’s done.”

Withers’ recent improvement has sparked comparisons to the late-season surge of former Tar Heel Brady Manek that helped carry UNC from the bubble to the national championship game in 2022.

But with upcoming games against ACC bottom-feeders Miami and Virginia Tech before the regular-season finale against Duke and the conference tournament, there’s still a lot of work left for Withers and his team to do just to get into this year’s tournament.

Here’s a look at the NCAA Tournament bubble around the country:

• ACC: UNC (18-11, 11-6, 45 NET), Wake Forest (19-8, 11-5, 63 NET), SMU (20-7, 11-5, 39 NET). While the Tar Heels’ stock is on the rise, the ACC’s 2 other bubble teams took dangerous steps back this week. Wake Forest went 8 minutes without a field goal during its second late collapse this month in suffering a loss to last-place NC State it could absolutely not afford on Saturday. SMU still has the best NET of the 3 at No. 39. But the Mustangs still don’t have a Quad 1 win. And they wasted one of their final opportunities on Saturday with a 10-point home loss to Clemson.
• Big Ten: Illinois (17-11, 9-8, 23 NET), Nebraska (17-11, 7-10, 54 NET), Indiana (16-11, 7-9, 56 NET). Don’t look now, but here comes Indiana. Coach Mike Woodson might be on his way out, but it’s still possible for his Hoosiers to play their way back into NCAA contention after upsets of No. 11 Michigan State and No. 13 Purdue in their past 2 games. Illinois, on the other hand, appears to be trending in the opposite direction. Burdened by a flu epidemic and a season-ending injury to star freshman Morez Johnson Jr., the Illini have lost 3 straight, including a 110-67 humiliation at the hands of Duke on Saturday. Nebraska didn’t help its cause by stacking an ugly 49-46 home loss to Michigan on Monday on top of an even uglier 17-point setback at Penn State on Wednesday.
• Big 12: Baylor (15-11, 8-8, 30 NET), West Virginia (16-11, 7-9, 48 NET), Cincinnati (16-11, 6-10, 44 NET). Baylor is still in the field by virtue of its 5 Quad 1 wins and strong NET. But after losing twice last week, including at cellar-dwelling Colorado, the Bears are suddenly flirting with the bubble. West Virginia, which also has 5 Q1 wins, helped itself by winning a showdown against fellow bubble team Cincinnati two Sundays ago. Despite the loss, the Bearcats still have a better NET than the Mountaineers.
• Big East: Xavier (18-10, 10-7, 53 NET), Villanova (16-12, 9-8, 50 NET). Xavier has won 4 straight, giving its NCAA résumé a significant boost with a home game against Creighton coming on Saturday. Villanova broke a 2-game losing streak by upsetting No. 16 Marquette last Saturday. But with 3 Quad 3-4 blemishes on their record, the Wildcats may already have dug themselves too deep a hope to escape.
• SEC: Vanderbilt (18-9, 6-8, 43 NET), Arkansas (16-11, 5-9, 40 NET), Texas (16-11, 5-9, 38 NET), Oklahoma (17-10, 4-10, 51 NET), Georgia (16-11, 4-10, 41 NET). Vanderbilt had a good week with a win against No. 24 Ole Miss for its third Q1 win of the season. Oklahoma also chalked up a Q1 win by taking down No. 21 Mississippi State, but at 4-10 in the conference, the Sooners probably need another upset or 2 to get onto the right of the bubble. On the other end of the scale, Texas suffered an egregious loss when it laid an 84-69 egg against South Carolina, a team that hadn’t previously won an SEC game this season. While Arkansas and Georgia also went winless last week, at least all of their losses came against ranked opponents. And the Razorbacks picked up a much-needed ranked win over Mizzou on Saturday.
• Mid-majors: San Diego State (18-7, 11-5 Mountain West, 49 NET), VCU (21-5, 12-2 Atlantic 10, 31 NET), Boise State (19-8, 11-5 Mountain West, 46 NET). There’s a group of teams, led by UC San Diego of the Big West, that could turn into at-large bid-stealers if they don’t win their conference tournaments.VCU is also in that category, especially after beating co-A10 leader George Mason on Saturday. Boise State also helped its cause by going 2-0 for the week. But with less depth in the Mountain West than there was a year ago, the Broncos need all the wins they can get the rest of the way to avoid being disappointed on Selection Sunday.

Brett Friedlander

Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.