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Week 1 of the 2024 college football season is here, and if it was anything like the appetizer sampling we got last Saturday, it’ll be a doozy.
Florida State lost to what appears to be a better-than-expected Georgia Tech team on a walk-off field goal. FCS Montana State rallied with 21 unanswered points in the fourth to stun New Mexico. SMU rallied with 16 unanswered points in the fourth to stave off what would have been an embarrassing upset against Nevada.
Georgia Tech — a 10.5-point underdog in the game against the Seminoles — covered for the 14th time in 21 games under coach Brent Key. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Yellow Jackets are now 9-2 against the spread as an underdog.
In fact, every single underdog covered in Week 0. And the over only hit once in the 4 games (Montana State-New Mexico).
There are a number of incredibly intriguing matchups on the Week 1 slate. Here’s how to approach them.
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
Arkansas vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Thurs., 7:30 p.m. ET)
Arkansas -48.5 | Total: 57
Bobby Petrino makes his much-anticipated return to the Arkansas sideline in this one. The former Razorback head coach is Sam Pittman’s new offensive coordinator, tasked with making a Taylen Green/Ja’Quinden Jackson partnership in the backfield work. Both players are transfers, brought in this offseason to try and juice a unit that averaged just 26.6 points a game a year ago.
Forty-eight is a huge number for a team with a new offensive coordinator, a new starting quarterback, a new starting running back, and 3 new starters on the offensive line.
Arkansas hasn’t outscored an opponent by 48 points since 2014. The Razorbacks have put 48 points on the board in a regular-season game only 4 times in Pittman’s tenure.
UAPB was a disaster last season, winning just 2 of its 11 games and finishing the year as the second-worst team in the FCS in SP+’s rankings. The run defense was a massive issue, yielding 195 yards a game to opposing offenses.
In their first game of the season, the Razorbacks might be a touch off. The forecast in Little Rock on Thursday calls for temperatures in the high 90s throughout the day. Given UAPB’s issues and a road trip to Stillwater on the docket for Week 2, running the ball and being as vanilla as possible might very well be the play for Petrino.
Play: Arkansas-Pine Bluff +48.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
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CLAIM OFFERColorado vs. North Dakota State (Thurs., 8 p.m. ET)
Colorado -9.5 | Total: 59 | Moneyline: Colorado -340, NDSU +270
North Dakota State is 9-4 against FBS teams all-time. A 31-28 loss to Arizona in Tucson on Sept. 18, 2022, snapped a 6-game winning streak for the Bison over FBS teams that dated back to 2010. Arizona needed a go-ahead touchdown pass with 4:53 to play in the game to win. As a team, the Bison ran for 283 yards at 6.3 per carry.
Teams don’t schedule NDSU anymore. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze. For Colorado, opening a massively important season under Deion Sanders, this is a potentially terrible spot.
The Bison ended the 2023 season with an offense that ranked second among all FCS schools in SP+. NDSU loses 3 starters on the offensive line, its top running back, and its top two wide receivers, but quarterbacks Cam Miler and Cole Payton are back to organize things. They each had 13 rushing scores last season, and Miller is in his fifth season starting for the Bison.
The quarterback run element made NDSU deadly on the ground last season. The Bison ran for more than 230 yards a game. The top tailback is gone, but capable replacements are waiting for a shot. NDSU also returns an all-conference fullback and added an FBS transfer on the offensive line. With more than 2 dozen seniors on this roster, NDSU is primed for another run at an FCS title.
With so much focus on Colorado’s offensive shortcomings a year ago, it’s easy to forget the Buffs were equally poor on the defensive side of the football. They ranked 103rd in run defense, giving up 4.7 yards per carry. They didn’t generate enough plays in the backfield and were consistently gashed for chunk runs.
There are new coordinators on both sides of the football and the offseason brought another total roster overhaul. North Dakota State could feasibly win this game outright.
Play: NDSU +10 (-110 via Caesars)
Stanford vs. TCU (Fri., 10:30 p.m. ET)
TCU -9 | Total: 59 | Moneyline: TCU -325, Stanford +260
I like Stanford to get a Year 2 bump under coach Troy Taylor. Stanford struggled last season in part because virtually the entire offense hit the door when David Shaw departed and Taylor had to rebuild everything from scratch. His quarterback competition lingered into the season, his offensive line struggled to mesh, and the run game was more effective with Justin Lamson carrying the ball than any of the Stanford running backs.
In 2024, Stanford returns Ashton Daniels (the expected starting quarterback), rising running back Sedrick Irvin, each of Daniels’ top 3 targets last season, and all 5 starters from last year’s young line. Against a remade TCU defense in the opener, I think the Cardinal can have an effective day throwing the football.
Taylor’s offenses are all about spread formations, air raid concepts, pre-snap motion, and RPOs. He was incredibly aggressive last year dialing up trick plays and trying to — for lack of a better word — gimmick his way to offensive success.
TCU is switching defensive schemes under new coordinator Andy Avalos and replacing key pieces in all 3 levels of the defense.
Play: Stanford +9.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech (Sat., noon ET)
Virginia -13.5 | Total: 50.5 | Moneyline: Virginia Tech -535, Vanderbilt +400
Virginia Tech is a sleeper in the ACC this season after ending the 2023 campaign red-hot offensively. A 39-17 loss to Florida State on Oct. 7 was the fourth loss in 6 games to open the year for the Hokies and the fourth time they’d been held under 20 points.
From then on, VT went 5-2 while averaging 35 points a game. There was inconsistency still (a 34-3 loss to Louisville) but huge outings. Virginia Tech putt 48 points on Boston College, 55 on Virginia, and then 41 on AAC champion Tulane in its bowl game. Quarterback Kyron Drones closed out the final 7 games with 14 touchdowns and an average 270 yards of total offense per game. A lethal dual-threat quarterback, Drones ran for 818 yards and only threw 3 interceptions all year.
Against a Vanderbilt team that has yet to put a quality defense on the field under Clark Lea, Tech should have a field day. Vanderbilt has ranked 121st or worse in run defense in each of Lea’s 3 seasons with the program.
Play: Over 50.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
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Ohio State vs. Akron (Sat., 3:30 p.m. ET)
Ohio State -50.5 | Total: 58.5
Since the start of Urban Meyer’s first season in Columbus (2012), the Buckeyes are 4-5 against the spread when favored by at least 40 points. Ryan Day is 0 for his last 2. The Buckeyes were a 44.5-point favorite over Arkansas State in a 2022 game they won by 33, and they were a 44.5-point favorite over Youngstown State in a 2023 game they won by 28.
In 2024, with Chip Kelly running an offense that is stuffed to the brim with skill talent, forget what we’ve known about the recent Ohio State Buckeyes.
When he had dynamic skill talent and efficient passers at Oregon, Kelly was an offensive menace. While things didn’t work at UCLA, this new version of Kelly might be the closest we’ll get to the Oregon Kelly — if he still exists.
Kelly has gotten to spend his entire offseason thinking about how to best use Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson and how to accentuate the things Will Howard does well while hiding the things he doesn’t. Kelly has not had to think about NIL or recruiting visits or NCAA rules or speaking engagements to solicit donations.
The Akron secondary lost a ton from last season and the offense is a complete rebuild. With so much of the talk this offseason being about Ohio State’s recent shortcomings, a focused Buckeye team in Week 1 is likely.
Play: Over 58.5 (-105 via ESPN Bet)
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Georgia Southern vs. Boise State (Sat., 4 p.m. ET)
Boise State -13 | Total: 56.5 | Moneyline: Boise State -520, Georgia Southern -390
The strength of this Boise State team is in its backfield, with do-everything back Ashton Jeanty, and its edge rushers. Georgia Southern was woeful last season defending the run and the offense is pass-heavy with a different quarterback for the third year in a row, a different offensive line coach for the fourth year in a row, and only 2 returning starters on that offensive line.
Jeanty had more than 1,900 yards of offense last season. Edge rusher Ahmed Hassanein had 53 total quarterback pressures last season and should make life rough for new tackles.
Similar to the game taking place in Little Rock, Arkansas, heat will be a factor here and the favorite will be trying to hold a few things in reserve for their Week 2 matchup.
Play: Under 57 (-110 via Caesars)
Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame (Sat., 7:30 p.m. ET)
Texas A&M -3 | Total: 46.5 | Moneyline: Texas A&M -155, Notre Dame +130
This has been a game we’ve been spotlighting since the offseason, and even more so since news came out of Notre Dame’s camp that starting left tackle Charles Jagusah would be lost for the season because of an injury.
Notre Dame already had to replace both tackles off last season’s team, and though he was young, Jagusah had held the spot on the left for virtually the entire offseason. With a month to get a replacement ready before facing one of the better groups of defensive linemen they’ll play all season, the Fighting Irish were thrust into a tough spot.
Former Purdue pass rusher Nic Scourton had 15 tackles for loss and 10 sacks for the Boilermakers last season. He teamed up with former Bowling Green standout Cashius Howell (44 pressures, MAC-leading 9.5 sacks last year) and former 5-stars Shemar Turner and Shemar Stewart.
Texas A&M wins this at home by a touchdown.
Play: Texas A&M -3 (-105 via BetMGM)
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Oregon vs. Idaho (Sat., 7:30 p.m. ET)
Oregon -43.5 | Total: 62.5
In 2 seasons under Dan Lanning, Oregon has faced a non-Power 5 team 5 times. The Ducks are 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 47 points. The Ducks have outscored those 5 teams 58-11, on average. Unless they’re facing Georgia in an opener, Oregon is going to score a truckload of points; that has been the trend under Lanning.
The Ducks demolished Portland State a year ago, 81-7, and they blasted Hawaii at home. Against another FCS squad that will enter with a gargantuan talent disadvantage, the Ducks might put 63 points on the board by themselves.
They have an experienced quarterback who fits like a glove in offensive coordinator Will Stein’s scheme. They have cohesion along a talented offensive line, a full stable of running backs, a loaded receiver room, a veteran tight end, and the most talented defense Lanning has had yet.
Even if Oregon pulls its starters early in the third quarter, backup quarterback Dante Moore (a former 5-star) will be throwing to Jurrion Dickey (a former 5-star). The talent in Eugene is impressive.
Play: Over 62.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
LSU vs. USC (Sun., 7:30 p.m. ET)
LSU -4.5 | Total: 63.5 | Moneyline: LSU -192, USC +160
Overs hit in 12 of LSU’s 13 games last season. They hit in 10 of USC’s 13 games. While both offenses have former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks to replace, both defenses are also introducing new coordinators who have a bevy of questions to answer.
Neither LSU nor USC’s defense was up to the standard last season, and both schools fired their coordinators because of it. D’Anton Lynn at USC is trying to simplify things for a group that struggled to do the basics right last year. Blake Baker at LSU is trying to harness all the talent the Tigers have and turn it into something cohesive. In Week 1, take the quarterbacks.
USC has Miller Moss and LSU has Garrett Nussmeier, a pair of players who sat and waited their turn at their respective schools. LSU, as Nick Saban colorfully put on College GameDay this past weekend, never wants for wide receiver talent. USC, under Lincoln Riley, will likely pump out a top-flight offense regardless of who is handling the snaps.
Play: Over 63.5 (-112 via DraftKings)
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CLAIM OFFERFlorida State vs. Boston College (Mon., 7:30 p.m. ET)
Florida State -17 | Total: 50.5 | Moneyline: Florida State -950, Boston College +625
When Boston College crashed SMU’s party at the Fenway Bowl last season, it did so because of its ability to control the ground game. SMU averaged 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos ran for 156 yards and 2 scores while throwing for 102.
Boston College struggled in the pass game on both sides of the ball last fall, but as we all just saw in Dublin, Ireland, if you can push Florida State around in the trenches you can have a chance. The Boston College offensive line is huge and anchored by right tackle Ozzy Trapilo. The defensive line has plenty of experience.
Florida State was mauled at the line by strong run concepts and hard-nosed defense. The Seminoles got just 3.2 yards per carry and had to turn to DJ Uiagalelei’s arm when they were off schedule far too often. On the other side, GT quarterback Haynes King hurt the Seminoles with his dual-threat ability and I think Castellanos can do some of the same.
Play: Boston College +17.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
