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We have an early candidate for Game of the Year on the docket in Week 5, in addition to some consequential conference games. Let’s just dive right in.
Here’s an early look at the market in Week 5.
(All odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)
Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami
Miami -19 | Total: 55.5 | Moneyline: Miami -1050, Virginia Tech +675
Miami ranks fifth nationally in net success rate and leads the country in adjusted net EPA per play, per game on paper. Miami is just blitzing teams. The plus-168 point differential through the Hurricanes’ first 4 games is the largest in a 4-game start in program history. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has lost to both power conference teams it has faced (Vanderbilt, Rutgers) and struggled to pull away from the 2 Sun Belt teams it has faced. The Hokies gave up 5.7 yards per rushing attempt to Marshall, then 6.2 yards per run to Old Dominion. Rutgers didn’t run the ball particularly well on Saturday, but the Scarlet Knights still had a 23-7 lead going into the fourth quarter.
The pass game has been inaccessible to Virginia Tech and that doesn’t figure to change against a Miami defense that ranks 13th nationally in passing success rate allowed. If Miami is able to keep Virginia Tech off-schedule, the aggressive front can feast. Only 4 teams have more tackles for loss than Miami (34) and no one has more sacks (16).
This feels like the spot where we learn just how different Miami is this season compared to recent years. I have this as a 20-point game. Virginia Tech shouldn’t be able to move the ball on this Miami defense. If the Hurricanes lock in, this won’t be close.
But there’s a chance, right? This is Miami we’re talking about. The number at DraftKings has just been steadily creeping up and up over Sunday and Monday. I’m leaning toward Miami, but passing on this game if the line gets up to 20.
Lean Miami -19
Navy at UAB
Navy -3.5 | Total: 56 | Moneyline: Navy -166, UAB +140
There’s nothing mid about this Navy team. (I couldn’t help myself.) The Midshipmen beat Memphis 56-44 on Saturday in a game that should have put everyone on notice to the quality of quarterback running the Navy offense. Blake Horvath completed 9 of his 12 passes for 192 yards and 2 scores while rushing 12 times for 211 yards and 4 scores. He is currently the nation’s leader in Total QBR, sitting above Cam Ward with a 95.2 score after 3 games. He is also 13th nationally in EPA despite only playing 3 games.
Per SP+, Navy has had a postgame win expectancy north of 97% in all 3 of its victories this season, so I’m not at all concerned about a slide; this team is legit. And UAB is not equipped to slow it down. The Blazers have lost consecutive games to Louisiana Monroe (32-6) and Arkansas (37-27). In both, the Blazers’ inability to slow the run game down has been their undoing. ULM had 209 yards and 2 scores on 48 carries and only completed 9 passes. Arkansas ran for 266 yards on 38 carries. UAB ranks 110th nationally in rushing success rate allowed.
Navy is running it well (6.5 yards per carry) and doesn’t give the football away (2 in 3 games). UAB has been pretty decent at limiting explosive pass plays, but that won’t much matter if Navy doesn’t ever have to go to the air to move the chains.
UAB has also given the football away 7 times in its first 3 games. I don’t think the Blazers will have much of the ball in this game.
Bet Navy -3.5
No. 22 BYU at Baylor
Baylor -2.5 | Total: 45.5 | Moneyline: Baylor -142, BYU +120
While Baylor took Colorado to overtime at Folsom Field, the Bears ended the 7-point defeat with just a 13.4% postgame win expectancy. They were lucky to get to overtime. And Colorado is the one that pulled off a Hail Mary to force it. The Bears were outgained on a per-play basis despite sacking CU quarterback Shedeur Sanders 8 times. Colorado’s inability to run the ball or protect its quarterback means it’ll never be able to pull away from teams.
Now, the Bears are hosting a team that has spent the past few weeks just suffocating offenses. BYU ranks 13th nationally in adjusted EPA per play allowed. The pass defense has provided blanket coverage. Per game on paper, BYU ranks seventh nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Nickel Jakob Robinson has been awesome, but it’s a group effort. Five different players have an interception. Three players have defended at least 4 passes. BYU has given up just 5 pass plays of at least 20 yards in its first 4 games.
The win over Kansas State featured a 28-0 run over less than 6 minutes of game clock as BYU scored on a fumble return, picked off 2 passes, and returned a punt 90 yards for a score. Baylor is unsettled at quarterback — starting Dequan Finn in the first 2 games and Sawyer Robertson in the last 2 — and that duo has combined for 5 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Bet BYU moneyline
No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame
Notre Dame -6 | Total: 48 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -245, Louisville +200
Louisville has looked like a legitimate contender for the ACC through the early-going. The Cardinals dominated their first 2 opponents and then beat Georgia Tech by 12 to begin ACC play. They weren’t able to run on Georgia Tech — a first this season — but quarterback Tyler Shough completed 13 of his 19 passes for 269 yards and 2 scores to lead the win.
Per game on paper, the Cardinals are ninth nationally in net success rate. They’re balanced on offense — capable of hitting big plays in the run game thanks to a stable of quality backs or, as Shough has shown, plenty explosive when forced to the air. Louisville ranks fifth in EPA per dropback. Notre Dame poses challenges, but Shough hasn’t put the ball in danger and so long as that continues, Louisville will have opportunities to put points on the board.
The big question is whether the Cards can slow down the Irish ground game. Georgia Tech ran it 37 times against Louisville and only gained 98 yards. Jacksonville State and Austin Peay combined for just 2.5 yards per carry. On the season, Louisville ranks fourth in rushing success rate allowed.
Notre Dame responded to its first loss of the season well, crushing Purdue behind a 362-yard rushing effort. It took a bit longer to pull away from Miami (OH), but the ground game once again produced. Quarterback Riley Leonard has 243 rushing yards in his last 2 games. If Louisville can contain him, I have serious questions about his downfield passing ability. But that’s a big if.
Lean Louisville +6
Related: Kentucky residents can use this DraftKings KY promo to bet on the game.
No. 21 Oklahoma at Auburn
Oklahoma -1.5 | Total 46 | Moneyline: Oklahoma -125, Auburn +105
Neither of these teams knows what’s happening at quarterback. Oklahoma rushed Dillon Gabriel out the door so it could begin the Jackson Arnold experience, and then bailed on Arnold before the first half of his first conference game ended. Auburn, meanwhile, benched Payton Thorne because he couldn’t stop turning the football over and then benched Thorne’s backup to go back to Thorne because the backup ran into the same turnover issues.
Now the Sooners are on the road in one of the SEC’s most daunting environments for visitors and flirting with the possibility of starting true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. Auburn’s Hugh Freeze was noncommital on Monday when asked about his quarterback situation.
Oklahoma has a sturdy run defense (10th in rushing success rate) and leads the nation in takeaways (12). Auburn leads the nation in giveaways (14). This game could be a turnover fest. There’s a point where I wouldn’t touch this game, but there’s a little value with the total still at 46. To me, this is a game where the first team to 20 wins.
Bet under 46
No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State
Ohio State -25 | Total: 49 | Moneyline: Ohio State -3200, Michigan State +1400
I’d otherwise be a little hesitant backing Ohio State on such a huge number given everything involved. The Buckeyes weren’t challenged in the nonconference portion of their schedule, and now they’re going on the road to face a coach who is 5-2 against the spread as a home underdog since 2020. Jonathan Smith has consistently faced teams with more talent, but his last 3 Oregon State teams found ways to overcome those talent gaps.
The thing that concerns me with this game is Aidan Chiles’ all-or-nothing approach. No player has more turnover-worthy plays than Chiles. Per PFF, the second-year quarterback has 11 of them through his first 4 games. He’s been picked off 7 times and is completing just 54% of his passes.
That is a recipe for disaster against an offense that can strike from any direction at any moment. A couple of early mistakes and Michigan State could be facing a 21-0 hole before the home crowd even settles into its seats. Michigan State hasn’t been effective on early downs and has had to make its living on third downs. That’s fine when a team like Prairie View is on the other side. Not Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the fourth-lowest passing success rate allowed in 2024.
Bet Ohio State -25
No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama
Georgia -2 | Total: 48.5 | Moneyline: Georgia -125, Alabama +105
Was the off week enough of a chance to fix the problems that presented themselves in the Kentucky game? Because the last time we saw Georgia on the field (and away from home), it did not look good. Kentucky has done that to Kirby Smart-coached teams. That’s fair. Alabama is awesome, though.
The rebuilt secondary has been a pleasant surprise. The Crimson Tide rank second nationally in passing success rate allowed. The offense hasn’t really gotten on track consistently, but we’ve seen flashes of its combustible nature. Kalen DeBoer has molded his approach to account for Jalen Milroe’s legs and that has been productive through the first 3 games. And Milroe has hit some big ones when Alabama has let it rip.
I like the home team by a field goal. I think that’s the difference between 2 teams that are still more or less feeling themselves out. Bryant-Denny Stadium is an edge in an otherwise even contest.
Bet Alabama +2
Middle Tennessee at Memphis
Memphis -25.5 | Total: 61 | Moneyline: Memphis -3200, MTSU +1400
We’re going back to the Blue Raider well this week. Memphis will look to rebound from its first loss of the season at home against one of the worst defenses in the FBS. The Tigers can afford a loss in their quest for the College Football Playoff; they cannot afford 2. After an emotional road win at Florida State, last week’s game against Navy was a real letdown spot. We should see a focused Tiger team in Week 5.
And here’s a quick refresher on Middle Tennessee. It ranks 133rd defending the pass (10.2 per play allowed). It ranks 131st in overall defensive efficiency (7.4 per play allowed). It ranks 132nd in third down defense. It only has 2 takeaways in 4 games and is giving up 43 points a game. In games against FBS competition, Middle Tennessee has lost by an average of 35 points. Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy just threw for 216 yards and 3 scores to lead a 45-17 victory. Seth Henigan should dice this secondary.
Bet Memphis -25.5
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Florida State at SMU
SMU -6 | Total: 47.5 | Moneyline: SMU -230, Florida State +190
This is the week to fade SMU. The Seminoles stabilized themselves at home in Week 4 with a 14-9 win over a good Cal team. Now they hit the road to face an SMU team that gave up 42 points to TCU and won.
A 66-42 result in the Iron Skillet went to SMU. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes got ejected. SMU scored on a fumble return, a punt return, and an interception return. (That’s 21 points in a 24-point game by the way.) SMU was outgained on a per-play basis but TCU coughed the football up 5 times.
The Florida State defense woke up a bit last week. The unit sacked Cal 7 times and held star runner Jaydn Ott from really making an impact on the game. They forced a turnover and held Cal to 5-for-15 on third downs.
SMU has been wildly inconsistent this season. I’m counting on that continuing in what will be the school’s first ACC conference game.
Bet Florida State +6
Washington State at No. 25 Boise State
Boise State -8 | Total: 65 | Moneyline: Boise State -298, Washington State +240
I have this game approaching 70. If you can keep yourself awake, you’ll be treated to 2 of the nation’s best rushers in Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty and Washington State quarterback (!!!) John Mateer.
Against FBS teams this season, Boise State has won 56-45 and lost 37-34. In those 2 games, the Broncos have gained 1,020 yards of offense at 7.3 yards per play and allowed 813 yards at 5.7 a play. Jeanty has gone for 267 yards on the ground in the opener, 192 yards and 3 touchdowns against Oregon, and 127 yards in a limited role in a Week 3 blowout. Washington State, meanwhile, ranks 83rd national in rushing success rate allowed. It gave up 75 yards on 14 carries to UW’s Jonah Coleman and 94 yards on 11 carries to San Jose State’s Floyd Chalk IV.
On the other side, Mateer has been amazing. The 6-foot-1 sophomore from Little Elm, Texas, has already thrown for 1,102 yards, run for 425 yards, and found the endzone 16 times. No one has been able to contain him, and nothing about Boise’s start suggests the Broncos will be the first to do so.
Bet over 65
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
