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Each week, we’ll be taking a look at the current College Football Playoff picture and the race to the 2024-25 National Championship. Who are the favorites to earn a spot in the 12-team field? Which teams are trending up? Who is fading? Last week’s picture can be found here.
At the end of this piece, you’ll find my Playoff projections entering Week 6.
(All odds via ESPN Bet)
Alabama Crimson Tide (-1200 Yes/+600 No)
Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️ ⬆️ ⬆️
Alabama jumped from -400 to -1200 to make the CFP with its win over Georgia. We have our first virtual lock.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-1000 Yes/+550 No)
Trend: ⬆️
The Buckeyes won their Big Ten opener in resounding fashion, thumping Michigan State. They are currently No. 1 in SP+.
Texas Longhorns (-750 Yes/+450 No)
Trend: ⬆️
Texas rolled past Mississippi State with Arch Manning at quarterback and without much fuss from the Bulldogs.
Oregon Ducks (-500 Yes/+340 No)
Trend: ⬆️
Oregon took control on the road, outgaining UCLA 431-172 in a trouncing.
Tennessee Volunteers (-320 Yes/+230 No)
Trend: ⬆️
The Vols rank No. 1 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric, they rank fourth in strength of record, and they rank second in average postgame win expectancy.
Related: Vols fans can wager on futures using one of our favorite Tennessee sports betting apps.
Georgia Bulldogs (-300 Yes/+220 No)
Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️
A loss in Tuscaloosa didn’t destroy Georgia’s Playoff chances, but it did shrink the margin for error. The Dawgs’ remaining strength of schedule ranks fourth nationally. Kirby Smart probably needs to impress upon his team that 1 more loss will be quite damaging.
Miami Hurricanes (-200 Yes/+160 No)
Trend: ⬇️
The Hurricanes rank No. 2 in the country in Game on Paper’s adjusted net EPA per play. Their best is better than their opponent’s best. Late-game controversy aside, Miami looks like the class of the ACC.
Penn State Nittany Lions (-170 Yes/+170135No)
Trend: ⬇️
After giving up a lengthy touchdown drive on the first Illinois offensive possession, Penn State locked in. Illinois averaged 3 yards per play after that first drive and never threatened. A 21-7 result doesn’t do justice to the difference between the 2 sides.
Missouri Tigers (+110)
Trend: ⬆️
Missouri has won 7 straight games that were decided by 8 points or less. The late-game mojo is a thing in CoMo.
Ole Miss Rebels (+110)
Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
If it’s true that a conference loss doesn’t eliminate Georgia from the College Football Playoff, or USC, or Kansas State, it should also be true that a loss doesn’t ruin the Rebels’ season prematurely. Ole Miss needs to rebound, though. The next 2 weeks are challenging. And Georgia looms.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+120)
Trend: ⬆️
Notre Dame should be favored in every game it plays from now until Nov. 30. It might even be a road favorite in Los Angeles depending on how the Trojans fare in conference play. Despite a brutal loss to NIU, everything remains in front of the Irish.
Clemson Tigers (+160)
Trend: ⬆️
Clemson has efficiently washed away the stain of its Week 1 defeat to Georgia by scoring 165 points in the 3 games since. The schedule looks kind the rest of the way.
USC Trojans (+170)
Trend: ⬆️
USC looks like a legitimate player, more so than perhaps anyone thought it would be. The Trojans have become a second-half team under this new coaching staff. A road contest in Minneapolis will be the ultimate test of this group’s focus.
Boise State Broncos (+180)
Trend: ⬆️
The Broncos are currently the highest-ranked team from outside the Power 4 conference. With a household name and a Heisman-caliber running back, Boise has a kind of brand power no other G5 school can match. The Broncos’ game at UNLV on Oct. 25 will be huge.
Utah Utes (+250)
Trend: ⬇️
Utah can’t win the Big 12 without Cam Rising. We knew that. We didn’t need a 23-10 home loss to Arizona to confirm it. But here we are. Rest up, Cam.
Iowa State Cyclones (+260)
Trend: ⬆️ ⬆️
The Cyclones are 4-0 with everything in front of them. They close out the regular season at Utah and then at home against Kansas State.
Texas A&M Aggies (+300)
Trend: ⬆️
A&M benefited from mistakes from a generally erratic Arkansas team, but Mike Elko has the Aggies on the right course. They’ve won 2 straight games that were decided by 8 points or less. Before Elko’s arrival, they’d lost 8 straight games decided by a single possession.
LSU Tigers (+360)
Trend: ⬇️
Since giving up 33 to South Carolina, LSU has allowed 17 and then 10 points. Garrett Nussmeier continues to do awesome things at quarterback, and the ground game has found a groove with Caden Durham. Sounds like a rising team.
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Kansas State Wildcats (+360)
Trend: ⬆️
The Wildcats responded to a head-scratching loss to BYU by throttling Oklahoma State at home and re-establishing themselves as a contender in the Big 12 title race. The Wildcats won’t face Utah, but they do have a game at Iowa State to end the season that could serve as a conference title play-in game.
Liberty Flames (+380)
Trend: ⬇️
Liberty had its game against Appalachian State canceled over the weekend due to the impact of Hurricane Helene on the town of Boone and the surrounding areas in North Carolina. Liberty is working to schedule a replacement game to ensure it plays a full 12-game regular season. Given the schedule strength (134th so far, 130th remaining), Liberty could win 15 games and it might not be enough for the CFP.
Louisville Cardinals (+550)
Trend: ⬇️ ⬇️
Louisville remains 12th in FPI with a 22.1% chance to make the CFP despite the road loss at Notre Dame. A win over the Irish would have been nice, but it won’t be a deal-breaker when Miami, Clemson, and Kentucky are still on the schedule.
Michigan Wolverines (+700)
Trend: no change
Another week brought a bit more officiating controversy for the Maize and Blue. Michigan has won consecutive 27-24 games at home against USC and Minnesota, and both affairs featured non-factor passing attacks. It remains to be seen how sustainable that is going forward.
* * * * * *
Projected College Football Playoff Field of 12
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Miami
- Kansas State
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Penn State
- Georgia
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- Missouri
- Boise State
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
