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ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts the outcome of each college football game every week. Thirteen weeks are already behind us, and now the model has updated its predictions for rivalry week.
The model sees the Gators as a heavy favorite in the Florida-Florida State game. The Gators have an 82.8% chance to win the game which means the Seminoles are getting just a 17.2% chance to pull off the upset.
Entering the game, the Gators have a 6-5 record, while the Seminoles are sitting at 2-9. Florida has won 2 in a row, defeating LSU and (likely) knocking Ole Miss out of College Football Playoff contention in Week 13.
The 2024 season couldn’t have started much worse for UF. The team was dominated at home by Miami and Texas A&M at the beginning of the season and also suffered losses to Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas. However, a late-season recovery has allowed the team to secure bowl eligibility.
After being on the hot seat for months, the school gave Billy Napier a vote of confidence and the coach will remain at the helm in Gainesville.
For FSU, 2024 has been a disaster. The team entered the season ranked No. 10, but rattled off 3 losses in a row to start the season. The only wins the team has are over California and Charleston Southern.
These in-state rivals have played each other in each season since 1958 (aside from 2020 due to the all-SEC schedule during COVID-19). The Gators have 37 wins in the series compared to the Noles’ 28. However, Florida State has won 2 in a row and 7 of the last 10.
The rivalry game will kick off from Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET.
Bryce Lazenby covers college football for Saturday Down South. A Nashville native, his previous stops include FanSided, Dimers, and The Leaf-Chronicle.
