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The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 7:
- Paul: 37–32–1
- Derek: 37–32–1
- Ethan: 35–34–1
- Spenser: 25–44–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
No. 2 Oregon (-27.5) at Purdue
Spenser Davis: I think the market may be overreacting to Purdue’s strong performance against Illinois last week. The Illini have a top-25 résumé, but I think they’re quite a bit worse than that from a power ratings perspective. With that in mind, I still have Purdue as arguably the worst team in the Power 4. I’ll take the Ducks to cover this number. PICK: Oregon
Paul Harvey: Anyone who has tracked Purdue night games against top-tier opponents knows the Boilermakers will either win by 10… or lose by 40. The Ducks should be fine in this game. The key word being “should.” But on a short week, off an emotional high, I’ll at least count on Ross-Ade magic ATS. PICK: Purdue
Derek Peterson: Purdue is bad, and I don’t think nearly beating an overrated Illinois team changes that. If we were talking about a mid-tier Big Ten program going into West Lafayette on a Friday night, then sure, I could get behind the Boilermakers in this spot. But we’re not. Oregon is equivalent to Ohio State in terms of talent, as evidenced by the near-wash of a game the 2 just played. And since that Rondale Moore game in 2018, Ohio State has beaten Purdue by 28 and 34 points. PICK: Oregon
Ethan Stone: 27.5 is a lot of points against Purdue, a team that has a habit of beating teams in situations like these. At home, no less. Ryan Browne looked confident against a good pass defense in Illinois last week, too. That’s enough for me. There’s no way I can pick the Ducks to cover here, but I still think the Ducks win comfortably. PICK: Purdue
Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana (-6.5)
SD: I think this number is dead-on. I’ll give the tiebreaker to IU because this is somewhat of a lookahead spot for the Huskers with a trip to Ohio State on deck in Week 9. PICK: Indiana
PH: I would like this line much better under 6 points but count me as a true believer in what Curt Cignetti is accomplishing. His IU team has maintained its focus so far, and the Hoosiers have even weathered a couple of slow starts before blowing out opponents. I don’t think this game will be a blowout, but I have questions about Nebraska’s offense keeping up if IU cracks through the Husker defense at all. PICK: Indiana
DP: Both teams are coming off a bye. Nebraska is an overtime loss away from being 6-0, but that defeat to Illinois leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Nebraska gave up 31 points and struggled to create stops. Indiana should be a step up in class, though the Hoosiers haven’t played anyone of worth yet. Nebraska’s defense is awesome, but freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has struggled on the road. Indiana’s offense is awesome, but the defense gave up 28 to Maryland and then 24 to Northwestern recently. I think this will be tight, so I’ll side with Matt Rhule, who has been excellent throughout his college coaching career as a road dog. PICK: Nebraska
ES: This is such an underrated game. I love it. Nebraska has the best defense the Hoosiers have faced this season by a considerable margin, but Kurtis Rourke is a worthy opponent. He’s doing what he’s supposed to do against bad defenses – absolutely torch them week in and week out. That leads me to believe he won’t fall apart against the Huskers. I think Rourke and Co. can get it done, but it feels like a close one that could go either way. PICK: Nebraska
No. 6 Miami (-5) at Louisville
SD: I’ve been pretty underwhelmed by Louisville for the last month or so. Miami has been in some close games over that span as well, but the Canes largely outplayed Virginia Tech and Cal on a down-to-down basis. Miami’s issues have come when it turns the ball over. Louisville hasn’t been particularly good at generating takeaways this year – it has just 6 on the season, which is tied for 13th amongst ACC teams. I think Miami can take care of business against the Cardinals. PICK: Miami
PH: We’ve talked about Purdue’s magic against highly ranked teams, but we should acknowledge some of that magic for the Boilermakers was delivered under Jeff Brohm. He just happens to be the head coach at Louisville who now gets an undefeated Miami at home. The Hurricanes are also 0-2 ATS in their most recent games. PICK: Louisville
DP: Cam Ward got a perfectly timed bye week to refocus. The near-upsets against Virginia Tech and Cal had a lot to do with Miami’s lack of sharpness. On the other side of the off week, Ward will see a defense that has only gotten hands on 15 pass attempts all season (124th nationally). Louisville has only forced 6 turnovers in 6 games, and they’ve been incredibly lucky to even have that many (4 recoveries on 5 opponent fumbles). Louisville has made its living defensively on third downs, but I think Ward is going to be able to hit some chunk plays here. I’m still a big buyer in Miami, and I think they’re being undervalued here. PICK: Miami
ES: I’m done taking Louisville on the Friday Forecast. I’m sure I made the right choice this time. PICK: Miami
South Carolina at Oklahoma (-2.5)
SD: I don’t see how Oklahoma is going to block Dylan Stewart or the other studs on this South Carolina defensive front. OU’s offensive structure has shown basically no ability to move the ball consistently at any point this season, regardless of who the quarterback is. Oklahoma has an edge defensively, but I’m not sure how much that will translate if OU gets down early. South Carolina games have also been extremely chaotic this season, which I think favors the less-talented roster. PICK: South Carolina
PH: It’s hard to get a good read on either of these teams at this point in the season. But I’ll go with the team that leads the SEC in turnover differential (Oklahoma at +7) and not the one that is 12th in the league (South Carolina at an even 0). The Sooners are also at home here. PICK: Oklahoma
DP: I tend to believe Shane Beamer when he says South Carolina is better than everyone thinks. They had a bad game against Ole Miss, which will happen when an inconsistent/limited offense meets an elite defense. Other than that, South Carolina has been right there in every game. Oklahoma has too many offensive issues right now, and I think the Gamecocks can create a few splash plays defensively that tilt the field in their favor. Whoever wins the field position battle wins. PICK: South Carolina
ES: This one’s the opposite of Indiana-Nebraska for me. It seems as if South Carolina flips a coin in the locker room before every game to dictate how they’ll perform on the field. Alternatively, Oklahoma can’t quite figure out the forward pass. The Gamecocks are chaos personified, and I think that has to mean something for this game – especially when I trust South Carolina’s defense more than any other unit on the field. PICK: South Carolina
No. 7 Alabama (-3) at No. 11 Tennessee
SD: I would prefer to play the over in this game given Alabama’s struggles on defense. The Crimson Tide genuinely have one of the worst-performing defenses in the SEC this season. But I don’t really trust Nico Iamaleava at this point either. I’ll side with the better quarterback in Jalen Milroe. PICK: Alabama
PH: Can you imagine if Kalen DeBoer goes 0-2 in the state of Tennessee this season? Talk about a rude wake-up call. This game looks to be one that comes down to a crucial play late, and for all of Alabama’s defensive issues, the Crimson Tide are 2-1 in close games. Not to mention the fact that Jalen Milroe has traditionally delivered for Alabama when needed. PICK: Alabama
DP: Tennessee has the best defense Alabama has played this season by far. The Tide had issues blocking up South Carolina last week, and Jalen Milroe turned the ball over twice at home. Now the Tide head to Neyland Stadium. While Nico Iamaleava and the offense have struggled of late, I’d still take him over LaNorris Sellers. PICK: Tennessee
ES: A stoppable force against a movable object. The 2022 versions of these programs would be disgusted by what has become of them. And despite it, Tennessee’s defense is performing like one of the top units in the country and Alabama’s offense has shown spurts of brilliance… though it’s been taking a vacation since Week 5. I am positive this will be a low-scoring game – but I don’t think Nico Iamaleava will be able to take advantage. This pick pains me. PICK: Alabama
No. 24 Michigan (-3.5) at No. 22 Illinois
SD: I would have been excited to fade Illinois this week against just about any other opponent. However, Michigan may be the only Big Ten team that’s just as fraudulently ranked as the Illini are. I don’t see either of these teams as top-25 quality, so I’ll take the points with the home dog. PICK: Illinois
PH: You can miss me with the idea that Jack Tuttle is somehow the key to Michigan’s offense. They might be better, and he might get better, moving forward, but even Tuttle had 2 turnovers in a loss to Washington in Week 6. The Wolverines are still susceptible to the passing attack, and Luke Altmyer is playing at a high level this year. PICK: Illinois
DP: I just don’t think either of these teams are as good as their ranking would suggest. Stepping up a level in terms of talent, I could see Illinois struggling to stay on schedule against Michigan’s defensive front. And though he’s been better this season, Altmyer has 9 turnover-worthy plays with only 1 interception. Sooner or later, that dam is going to break. I’ll take Michigan off a bye with a new quarterback. PICK: Michigan
ES: I think the wrong team is favored here. I just have never had faith in Michigan’s offense and still don’t, especially on the road against a competent offense. PICK: Illinois
Colorado at Arizona (-3)
SD: Arizona has been very hot and cold this season. Colorado is always going to get every team’s best shot, but I think the Buffs have been more consistent this season. I’ll take the points with Prime’s team. PICK: Colorado
PH: Arizona is a drastically different team at home than the Wildcats are on the road. Their only home loss this season is to surprisingly 5-1 Texas Tech. On the other hand, Colorado’s 2 losses this season have been to teams that are currently a combined 10-2. (Arizona is currently 3-3.) It’s a true coin flip for me, but I’ll go with the home team. PICK: Arizona
DP: A random road win over a broken Utah team is all that stands between Arizona and a 4-game losing streak on the year. The Wildcats have been incredibly disappointing, and they’re 1-5 against the spread. I’m taking the Buffs, who have covered 4 straight. PICK: Colorado
ES: Arizona has been a disappointment this season while Colorado has outshined my expectations. Travis Hunter will be good to go, and that’s enough for me. PICK: Colorado
No. 8 LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas
SD: I think, collectively, we’re going to view Arkansas’ win over Tennessee a lot differently in a few weeks than we did on the night that it happened. The truth is that the Vols have been dreadful offensively since they started playing competent opponents. And if you take away the win over Tennessee, what do we have that says Arkansas is good? It’s really just a flukey win at Auburn. I think LSU rolls here. PICK: LSU
PH: It sounds like Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is still progressing toward being on the field Saturday, but he cannot help a Razorback defense that is already giving up 215 passing yards per game. Garrett Nussmeier will test that number throughout Week 8. PICK: LSU
DP: We all go down with the ship here, it seems. I’m taking LSU, but I’d push back a little on the notion that Arkansas is a fraudulent. On their day, they can beat anyone. They just don’t play clean football. They also haven’t met a passing attack like this one yet, and I think LSU moves the ball and creates a higher-scoring game. PICK: LSU
ES: Taylen Green is underrated, and I say that from seeing some of the throws he made against a really, really good Vols defense. The Razorbacks are off a bye. They’ve been competitive or won every game they’ve played in this season. This one is going to be so close, but the Tigers are just too good; they can move the ball, while Tennessee – the Razorbacks’ best win – cannot. I think Arkansas falls short like it did against A&M: PICK: LSU
No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas (-4)
SD: Georgia has been underwhelming this season. That has been well-documented. The offense has struggled to replace the weapons they lost last season to the NFL and the defense has been banged up all year. But I think what has gone more under the radar is just how much Texas has benefitted from some turnover luck in blowout wins over Michigan and Oklahoma. Georgia, for all its faults, is also much better than the Wolverines and Sooners. I think Georgia will more than hold its own in this spot. PICK: Georgia
PH: Don’t put it past Kirby Smart to rally his troops at any point in the season. Georgia is never out of a game if he’s on the sidelines. That being said, Texas is certainly not scared of anyone this season, and I don’t see the same level of consistency that the Bulldogs have had in recent years on either side of the ball. I’m not counting Georgia out, but I have to go with the team that has looked like they belong in the national title conversation all season long. PICK: Texas
DP: Are we getting a hot Quinn Ewers or a cold Quinn Ewers when he throws downfield? That’s important. Isaiah Bond was listed as probable on the Longhorns’ injury report. That’s important. And Smael Mondon Jr. isn’t playing for Georgia. That’s important. I have Texas by more than a touchdown, which is probably a little too rich given the Kirby Smart component I can’t quantify. That being said, Georgia’s pass defense is average at best and Carson Beck has shown he will turn the football over if he has to throw it around. PICK: Texas
ES: I can’t bring myself to believe Georgia is going to put up the performance it did in the first half against Alabama again this season. And I’ll be the one to say it: Texas ain’t played nobody Pawl. Michigan and Oklahoma, 2 offenses which rank 119th and 126th in total offense this season? There’s something to be said for how much control the Longhorns have had in their wins, the Bulldogs are a different entity. PICK: Georgia
North Texas at Memphis (-10.5)
SD: I think North Texas has beaten up on some bad teams in the AAC this year. The one time the Mean Green played a quality opponent, they let Texas Tech hang 66 on them. I’ll take the home favorite here. PICK: Memphis
PH: At one point, Memphis was my top Group of 5 team this season. But now we know the true weight of that FSU win. North Texas’s only loss on the season has been to Texas Tech, and the Mean Green have scored 35+ points in all but one game. That offense will keep it close against Memphis, if not pull off an outright win. PICK: North Texas
DP: I backed North Texas once earlier this season, and that was a 66-21 loss to a banged up Texas Tech team. Chandler Morris threw 3 picks that day. Since, North Texas has a 44-17 win over Wyoming, a 52-20 win over Tulsa, and a 41-37 win over FAU. None of those teams rank higher than 106th in SP+. The problem here is that Memphis may have actually played a worse schedule. If I were betting on this game, I might actually just refer to my preseason numbers given the collective of wimps both these teams have faced so far. Those would point to Memphis. PICK: Memphis
ES: Chandler Morris, Highland Park, Texas. He’s the reason why that North Texas offense is so much fun, and I think it’ll hold up well against an iffy Memphis defense. The Mean Green can and will cover here. PICK: North Texas
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
