Ad Disclosure
The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 8:
- Derek: 43–36–1
- Ethan: 42–37–1
- Paul: 41–38–1
- Spenser: 33–46–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State (-25.5)
Spenser Davis: This is way too many points, I think. As bad as Nebraska looked last week against Indiana, I have to think the Huskers will be ready to come up with a better effort this weekend against the Buckeyes. PICK: Nebraska
Paul Harvey: The cat is out of the bag as it relates to Nebraska’s hot start this season. The Huskers have played 2 games against ranked B1G opponents and have surrendered 30+ points in both. I’m not sure Ohio State beats Nebraska worse than Indiana (which is a statement I will need to ponder for a while), but this is just a recipe for disaster for the Huskers. The Buckeyes are pissed off and had a bye to stew on the loss to Oregon before this one. PICK: Ohio State
Derek Peterson: There hasn’t been any magic juice after a bye week throughout the Ryan Day tenure (8-6 ATS). And, since the start of the 2022 season, the Buckeyes have gone 9-7-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 20 points. I think Ohio State can roll here, but I can’t figure out how much that thought is being influenced by last week’s Nebraska-Indiana result. Did Nebraska really look past Indiana? Statistically, this was one of the best defenses in the country and it got pancaked in Bloomington. I can’t make sense of the result. I’m going to ride with what I think I know Nebraska to be one more time and adjust accordingly. PICK: Nebraska
Ethan Stone: This is a lot of points, but if the Hoosiers can blow past this number the Buckeyes can do it following a bye. There’s not much to say here really… Ohio State is just the considerably better team and the Huskers wither against competent competition. PICK: Ohio State
Oklahoma at No. 18 Ole Miss (-20)
SD: Oklahoma’s offense literally can’t be worse than it has been over the last few weeks, so I’m actually bullish on the OC change being impactful. If Jackson Arnold can avoid turning the ball over in bad spots on the field, OU’s defense can keep this a close game. It’s also worth noting that Jaxson Dart really struggled to produce against a much worse LSU defense last time out. PICK: Oklahoma
PH: Oklahoma’s previously impressive turnover differential took a hit after a minus-4 performance at home against South Carolina. The Sooners are reeling and Brent Venables has made a change at OC, but that’s not usually the kind of midseason move that delivers major results. Meanwhile, Ole Miss better start stacking impressive wins in a hurry if Lane Kiffin wants to deliver on his best season with the Rebels. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: I’m backing Oklahoma in this spot for all the reasons Spenser mentioned. Oklahoma’s defense was fine against South Carolina a week ago. The offense was a net negative. With a coordinator change this past week and a new quarterback in place, maybe OU shows some life on that side of the ball. PICK: Oklahoma
ES: I have zero faith in Oklahoma to move the ball against a defense with a pulse, even with the recent coordinator change. Arnold is a better option than Hawkins under center, but Ole Miss should take this one with ease. PICK: Ole Miss
No. 12 Notre Dame (-13.5) vs. No. 24 Navy
SD: I’m afraid this is the end of the line for Navy’s undefeated run. The Midshipmen weren’t convincing last weekend against Charlotte but benefitted greatly from 5 takeaways. I don’t expect Notre Dame to be that generous with the ball this weekend. Marcus Freeman has also been excellent against ranked opposition so far in his head coaching career. PICK: Notre Dame
PH: Navy has not faced a ranked opponent yet this season, but the Midshipmen have been efficient all season long. Still, Notre Dame has recovered from its early-season disaster vs. Northern Illinois and has won 5 straight, including 4 of those games by double digits. Time of possession figures to be a key factor here, and it’s worth noting the Midshipmen are not the TOP powerhouse that Army has been. The Black Knights are 2nd nationally with nearly 35 minutes TOP while Navy is 85th at just over 29 minutes. Advantage Notre Dame. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: The unbeaten run comes to a close here. PICK: Notre Dame
ES: The Fighting Irish are going to lose to at least one of their battles against Army, Navy, or USC. I’m willing to bet the farm on it. I see the stats, and I see the fact the Midshipmen really haven’t played anyone that can come close to dancing with Notre Dame (maybe Memphis?), but I don’t care. PICK: Navy
No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon (-21.5)
SD: I’m a bit conflicted here because I think both of these teams might be overrated by the market (more so Illinois than Oregon) coming off of last week’s results. Ultimately, I think this is a bad matchup for Illinois. The Illini’s best chance to move the ball is through the air, but that clashes with Oregon’s strength on defense. With this game being in Eugene, I think Oregon can cruise here. PICK: Oregon
PH: If not for Indiana, more people would be talking about Illinois as the biggest surprise in the B1G this season. The Illini have just one loss, and that was one where Bret Bielema’s group held strong on the road against Penn State. Don’t be shocked if something similar plays out with a focus on the turnover differential. Dillon Gabriel’s 4 interceptions this season have all come in the last 4 games, and the Illini are tied for second in the conference with a plus-7 turnover margin. Even if Oregon puts this one away comfortably, 3 touchdowns seems too high in this one. PICK: Illinois
DP: The last 3 results for Illinois have me questioning. Penn State missed 2 decent field goals and turned it over on downs inside the Illinois 20. Give the Nittany Lions 9 points from those 3 trips — so, a 30-7 win instead of 21-7 — and the public probably views Illinois differently. Illinois then almost blew it against Purdue. Then, it left plenty of meat on the bone in a win over a garbage Michigan team. Oregon swarms on defense and blankets the back end, which is at least a little concerning for an Illinois offense that has to lean on the throw game. We keep waiting for Luke Altmyer’s turnover issues to poke back up (he has 9 turnover-worthy plays and only 1 pick); maybe that’s this weekend. PICK: Oregon
ES: Three touchdowns is way too many points for this spread. The Illini are fighting for a spot in the Playoff, and this is their one chance to actually put their name in the running. I don’t think they succeed, but I do think they cover. PICK: Illinois
No. 11 BYU at Central Florida (-2.5)
SD: So Central Florida has lost 4 games in a row and yet the Golden Knights are favored over an undefeated BYU team? What gives? Here’s what: UCF has an absolutely elite rush offense led by RJ Harvey. BYU, meanwhile, has struggled mightily against the run this season. Per Game On Paper, BYU’s rushing defense ranks 106th nationally in EPA per play. UCF’s offense ranks 5th in the same stat. That’s a significant enough matchup advantage to back the home team in my opinion. PICK: UCF
PH: This one feels like a trap, for sure. UCF is riding a 4-game losing streak and most recently blew a 14-point lead in the 2nd half of a loss to Iowa State. On the other hand, BYU has looked like a juggernaut at times with a few close calls. One of those close calls involved Oklahoma State, but the Cougars delivered a game-winning drive in crunch time. I’ll go with the team that feels battle-tested here. PICK: BYU
DP: Jacurri Brown has taken over at quarterback for UCF and the Knights have gone even more run-based. In a near-upset of Iowa State, Brown partnered with RJ Harvey to pepper the Cyclone run defense again and again, running it 38 times for 350 combined yards and 4 scores. If Brown can limit the turnovers in the throw game, UCF can give another unbeaten a scare. That being said, I would have liked to get UCF as a home dog. With this line flipping in UCF’s direction, I think there’s more value on BYU here. PICK: BYU
ES: Losing this game would absolutely check out for BYU, huh? Well, I’m not convinced this year. I think the Cougars are for real, and while the Knights can run the ball very well their passing offense is among the worst in the nation. The Cougars can make UCF one-dimensional, and I think they’ll roll here. PICK: BYU
No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama (-16.5)
SD: Brady Cook is likely to miss this matchup, which is a shame. You could certainly do worse than Drew Pyne for a backup quarterback, but I don’t have much faith in his ability to keep Mizzou competitive in this game. I think Alabama will have a better plan offensively in this game and should be able to come out with a comfortable victory. PICK: Alabama
PH: In game of the season, the Tigers gave up 41 points while getting routed by Texas A&M. And I know Alabama is not exactly playing clean football right now, but I can’t look past Mizzou’s major injury concerns with Brady Cook and Nate Noel. For all of Kalen DeBoer’s recent struggles, I still have to acknowledge what that offense is capable of, and I expect some big stuff with Alabama’s back against the wall this weekend. PICK: Alabama
DP: Missouri has played one good team on the road this season. That game resulted in a 41-10 loss for the Tigers. Now, they head to Tuscaloosa with an offense that could be without as many as 5 starters. Guard Cayden Green and tight end Brett Norfleet are questionable. Brady Cook and tailback Nate Noel are doubtful. Wideout Mookie Cooper is out. If Missouri was fully healthy, I’d have very little reason to trust Alabama as a 2-score favorite. The Tigers just aren’t anywhere close to healthy on offense. PICK: Alabama
ES: My initial reaction to seeing this spread was to pick the Tigers even without Brady Cook, because Alabama’s defense is so bad that I can still see Mizzou being competitive. What a sad sentence. Ultimately, Alabama is at home and a healthier team. Marcus Carroll and Pyne might be able to keep things close at the start, but the Tide should be able to bring this home based on their talent alone. Despite how dreadful they’ve been in recent weeks, I think the Tide cover this spread. PICK: Alabama
No. 5 Texas (-19) at No. 25 Vanderbilt
SD: I love Texas in this spot coming off of a loss. There’s virtually no chance that Texas is going to overlook a Vanderbilt team that already has a home win over Alabama this season. The Longhorns will be highly motivated to get back on track with a dominant victory – and I think that’s exactly what they’ll do. PICK: Texas
PH: I rode the Vandy train on the road against Kentucky coming off the upset of Alabama and it paid off. But this is where I hop off. Sorry, Commodores. The first half looked awful against Georgia, but the 23-point deficit overshadowed how well the Longhorn defense actually played. And in case you have forgotten, it was the Alabama defense that ultimately allowed Vandy to pull off that wild upset. Texas should not have those kinds of struggles in this game, and look for Ewers to bounce back with a big road performance. PICK: Texas
DP: Vanderbilt already has 3 outright victories this season as an underdog of at least 13 points. The ‘Dores are 4-0 ATS in games where they’re a dog of at least 13. I was shocked by the Texas-Georgia result. Georgia did things against Texas it hadn’t done against anyone else this season, which was even more shocking considering how we viewed the Texas offensive line. Vandy doesn’t have a Jalon Walker on defense, but it does have Diego Pavia. And we’ve seen this season that Pavia plus the veer is a recipe for ATS success when ‘Dores are this large a dog. PICK: Vanderbilt
ES: Texas is just not all that, I’m sorry. I’ve been saying it since Week 0. Carson Beck had a horrible game and the Bulldogs still won by 2 touchdowns in Austin. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, has shown up in big games and might actually draw more fans with their win over the Tide earlier this season. Texas has more talent, obviously, but don’t call me crazy when I say I think the Commodores can keep this close. PICK: Vanderbilt
Florida State at No. 6 Miami (-21)
SD: Maybe more than anything else, this point spread illustrates just how far Florida State has fallen this season. In the last 30 seasons, Miami has never been favored by more than 2 touchdowns – let alone 3 – against rival Florida State. I expect Miami will be more than happy to run up the score on the Seminoles if given the opportunity. PICK: Miami
PH: I’m not sure a line exists that will make me pick FSU this season. All I know is this line is not it with Miami playing for even bigger things than a rivalry win this year. PICK: Miami
DP: I would like to see Miami run the score up, just to see what the Hurricanes look like when they’re fully focused for a full 60. They’ve played 3 straight 1-score games against ACC teams. Ward has been sacked 9 times and thrown 3 picks in those games. I’m looking for Miami to aggressively seek out a statement victory against a downtrodden FSU team. PICK: Miami
ES: It’s pretty shocking how terrible Florida State is this season. The Seminoles have scored more than 2 touchdowns in a game just once this season – all the way back in Week 0. They have no chance. Cam Ward and Co. might beat them by 40. PICK: Miami
Related: Bet on Week 9 action using one of your favorite sports betting apps in Louisiana and score a sign-up bonus using our code.
No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M (-2.5)
SD: I think both of these teams are a touch overrated, but the Aggies are a lot more sound on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t trust LSU’s offense to be able to have a big game in a hostile Kyle Field, so I’ll lay it with the Aggies. PICK: Texas A&M
PH: At the risk of picking against Kyle Field burning me the way picking against Tiger Stadium did, I have to go with LSU in what looks like a true coin flip game for me. I think the Tigers are just a bit more tested, and I’m still not convinced the Aggies are a true contender. Texas A&M does have a great schedule in November, so that view could change with a crucial win here. But I’m rolling with LSU’s offense to pull this one out. PICK: LSU
DP: This is such a fun matchup. The Texas A&M defensive front has gone nuclear in recent weeks. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is nearly untouchable when dropping back. The Texas A&M offense is always on schedule. The LSU defense has really found its footing in recent weeks as a havoc-producing, pressure-inducing unit. I’m rolling with Nussmeier to outduel Conner Weigman in a tight game. PICK: LSU
ES: I’ve had this one circled for a couple weeks. The winner of this one is in excellent shape to make the College Football Playoff – especially if it’s Texas A&M. And with the Aggies getting homefield at one of the toughest road environments in the country, I’ll give them the edge. PICK: Texas A&M
Auburn at Kentucky (-2.5)
SD: Kentucky has quietly been one of the worst teams in the SEC since it beat Ole Miss last month. The Wildcats posted inexcusably poor defensive success rates in losses to Vanderbilt and Florida over the past couple of weeks, and they’ve continued to struggle with throwing the ball offensively as well. I think this may be Auburn’s breakthrough moment. PICK: Auburn
PH: It’s a shame Auburn and Mississippi State don’t play this season because they both have a real shot to finish winless in the SEC. Kentucky has its own set of issues, but I believe the Wildcats have played a bit better all season long. I’ll take Kentucky by a FG at home. PICK: Kentucky
DP: Getting this game on the ledger for the week was hilarious. Auburn and Kentucky are a combined 1-8 in league play this season. Auburn has lost 7 straight games to power conference teams. Kentucky has lost 6 straight home SEC games. The loser of this game is going to find itself in an incredibly uncomfortable spot. I think that’s Kentucky. PICK: Auburn
ES: The second straight week of a stoppable force meeting a movable object. Man, this game sucks. Neither of these teams have won since September, but Auburn has been in every game they’ve played apart from Georgia. My usual routine is to go with the home team in these kind of toss-up matchups, but my gut tells me to roll with the Tigers this time around. PICK: Auburn
Related: Kentucky residents can bet on the game using this DraftKings KY promo.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
