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Ohio State vs. Penn State is shaping up to be one of the biggest games of the year.
This is a matchup with major implications for both the Big Ten title race and the College Football Playoff. Both teams are on track to make the 12-team CFP, but the result of this game could be the difference in ultimately receiving a first-round bye, hosting a playoff game or going on the road for the first round.
Each of these teams boast elite statistical profiles almost across the board, although there are some notable weaknesses and question marks for both units ahead of this matchup.
Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:
Ohio State vs. Penn State betting lines
Lines via DraftKings:
Spread: Ohio State -3.5 (-105) | Penn State +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 45.5 points (-110) | Under 45.5 points (-110)
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Betting trends to know for Ohio State
Ohio State is…
- 3-4 against the spread in 2024
- 1-4-1 against the spread when favored by under a touchdown in the Ryan Day era
- 12-10-2 against the spread on the road in the Ryan Day era
Betting trends to know for Penn State
Penn State is…
- 3-4 against the spread in 2024
- 5-5 against the spread as a home underdog in the James Franklin era
- Includes a 4-1 ATS record against Ohio State
- 23-21-2 against the spread in home Big Ten games under James Franklin
Advanced Stats preview
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- Ohio State rushing offense success rate: 51.2%
- Penn State rushing defense success rate: 31.2%
Ohio State’s running game has been, by-and-large, very efficient so far in 2024. Per Game On Paper, Ohio State ranks 8th in EPA-per-rush entering this matchup with the Nittany Lions. However, things are trending down for the Buckeyes in this area. Ohio State had a rushing success rate of just 41.2% against Nebraska last weekend, which translated to just over 2 yards per carry vs. the Huskers. Since Big Ten play began, Ohio State’s rushing success rate is 46%. That’s still a respectable number, but it’s not quite the elite unit that we thought we’d be getting when the season began.
As you might expect, Penn State has one of the best rush defenses in the country. Opposing offenses are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry so far this season. It is worth noting that USC was able to tag the Nittany Lions for 189 yards on the ground on just 24 carries a couple of weeks ago. However, much of that production came on a 75-yard touchdown run early in the game. Giving up explosive runs hasn’t been a trend for Penn State this season. In 4 games against Big Ten opposition, Penn State has only conceded 5 rushes of 20+ yards.
- Penn State rushing offense success rate: 50%
- Ohio State rushing defense success rate: 36%
Ohio State’s rush defense is elite. This is a very strong defensive front that has generated 53 tackles for loss so far this season, which leads the Big Ten on a per-game basis. That unit has continued to produce even with the step-up in competition since September — the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions enter Week 10 tied with 7.75 tackles for loss per game in Big Ten contests.
Penn State’s running game has been strong this season with the duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton leading the way. Singleton has been banged up over the past few weeks, which has led to a higher workload for Allen. The advanced stats show Singleton as the more productive part of that pair, but Allen holds his own with a 47% individual success rate, per Game on Paper. Both backs should be good to go against Ohio State on Saturday.
Passing success rate
- Ohio State passing offense success rate: 51.1%
- Penn State passing defense success rate: 35.4%
Will Howard has taken his lumps at times this season, particularly after the Oregon game. But it’s hard to complain too much about what this Ohio State passing attack has produced to this point in the season. A 51.1% success rate is borderline-elite and the Buckeyes have had plenty of explosive plays, too. Ohio State leads the Big Ten in plays of 30 or more yards with 16 so far this season. The triumvirate of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate make up one of the best wide receiver units in the country.
This Penn State secondary has been great to start the year. Penn State ranks third in the Big Ten in pass defense efficiency rating and is tied for second in yards per attempt allowed. In Big Ten play, the Nittany Lions are holding opposing offenses to just 6 yards per attempt. However, it’s worth noting that Ohio State’s passing attack will be a completely different animal from what Penn State has faced so far. None of Penn State’s B1G opponents so far this season currently rank in the top 5 in passer efficiency rating in the conference.
- Penn State passing offense success rate: 54.8%
- Ohio State passing defense success rate: 37.1%
As expected, the Ohio State pass defense has been excellent so far this season. A 37.1% success rate is close to elite, although some other numbers show Ohio State’s pass defense is more toward the middle of the pack in the Big Ten than at the top. The Buckeyes are tied for 7th in pass defense efficiency in Big Ten games so far this season. Ohio State is also toward the bottom of the league with just 12 passes defended (3 interceptions, 9 pass breakups) in 4 Big Ten contests so far this year. This is a strong unit, but teams have had a little bit of success against Ohio State through the air this season.
This might be the most important matchup in this game. Last season, Drew Allar was great against the minnows of the Big Ten but really struggled against giants like Ohio State and Michigan. Allar seems to have taken another step forward this season, but he’s yet to face a truly elite defense on a big stage in 2024. That changes on Saturday. There’s also the added wrinkle of Allar’s health, as he didn’t play in the second half of Penn State’s win over Wisconsin in Week 9. It seems as though Allar is trending toward playing, but this is something to watch ahead of kickoff. If Penn State has to rely on Beau Pribula, I don’t have much optimism for the Nittany Lions’ chances in this spot.
1 other key: Will Ohio State’s offensive line issues be sorted out?
Ohio State began the year with one of the top offensive line units in the country, but injuries have significantly impacted their performance recently. Left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury against Oregon and his replacement, Zen Michalski, played poorly last week against Nebraska. That was a big reason for Ohio State’s offensive issues against the Huskers — and it nearly cost the Buckeyes the game.
Penn State poses an even more formidable threat than Nebraska did up front. Abdul Carter has already racked up 9.5 tackles for loss this season and is the exact kind of athletic pass rusher that Ohio State might struggle with given their uncertainty at tackle.
Will Howard hasn’t been pressured often this season, but when he has, the results haven’t been good for the Buckeyes. Per PFF, Howard is just 10-of-25 for 109 yards when under duress this season. He also has a turnover-worthy play rate of 7.7%. The Penn State pass rush could have an outsized impact on this game if Ohio State can’t figure out its offensive line issues — and that’s to say nothing of Ohio State’s difficulties in the run game last week, as mentioned above.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
