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3 key matchups that will define Tennessee vs. Florida (and a prediction)

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

Florida and Tennessee renew their rivalry Saturday night on the banks of the Tennessee River when the Gators visit Neyland Stadium (7 pm, ESPN).

Florida has won 17 of the past 20 meetings, including a dominant 29-16 win over then-No. 11 Tennessee last season in The Swamp. The Volunteers did win the last meeting between the schools on Rocky Top, however, when Hendon Hooker outdueled Anthony Richardson in a back and forth 38-33 thriller.

The game features 2 programs seemingly headed in opposite directions.

Tennessee is a College Football Playoff hopeful in Year 4 under Josh Heupel, who has won 31 games in his 3+ seasons in Knoxville while recruiting well in the prep and portal ranks. The Volunteers are coming off their first loss of the season last week at Arkansas, but the Playoff is still a very real possibility for Tennessee, which will have Neyland behind them as they host a power conference opponent for the first time this season.

The Gators have won 2 consecutive games, but they arrive in Knoxville as a program in flux.

Billy Napier’s future isn’t formally decided, but at least at present, all signs point to a coaching change being imminent at Florida. A win at Tennessee would represent Napier’s first road win over a ranked team in Gainesville — and go a long way to at least initiating a conversation about whether Florida should consider sticking with the embattled Napier for a 4th season. 

Of course, the paths of these programs haven’t mattered much of late in this rivalry. Florida has beaten Tennessee with some of its worst teams, including 4-win outfits in 2013 and 2017, and Dan Mullen’s 6-7 group that routed Heupel’s Vols in 2021. History doesn’t play games, though, and in what promises to be rollicking, rowdy Neyland Stadium, it’s easy to see why Tennessee enters as a 2-TD favorite on Saturday night, according to sportsbooks like FanDuel.

Here are 3 matchups that will define the 54th edition of Tennessee and Florida.

Florida’s edge and LBs vs. Dylan Sampson and the Tennessee’s OL

The Volunteers played their worst game up front at Arkansas and fell from the ranks of the unbeaten as a result.

Florida played its best game up front against Big 12 foe UCF and held the nation’s No. 2 rushing attack entering the game to just 108 yards, the 5th-lowest total for a Gus Malzahn coached team in the longtime head coach’s tenures at UCF and Auburn.

Tennessee has the SEC’s best running back in Dylan Sampson.

Florida has one of the SEC’s fiercest run-stopping linebackers in Pup Howard, who grades out 4th overall and No. 1 against the run among all SEC linebackers this season, per PFF.

It’s a classic something’s gotta give matchup.

Sampson, who ranks 2nd in the SEC in yards this season and No. 1 in rushing touchdowns, has exceptional patience and vision and is a load to tackle.

That could spell trouble for a Florida defense that before a stout performance at home against UCF ranked 15th in the SEC in tackle rate.

Is it possible the Gators’ run defense truly turned a corner? I suppose.

Is it more likely that the Volunteers’ offensive line simply had a tough night against Landon Jackson and a terrific Arkansas defensive front? Yes.

Tennessee plays 5 seniors, starting 4, up front, and they have been challenged by their head coach after a dismal night against Arkansas.

“I think the response has been great,” senior Dayne Davis told the media this week. “Everybody in the building, we believe in each other. We know Saturday we didn’t get the job done and we know we didn’t play to our standard, so just coming back in, learning from the game, learning from the mistakes and being ready for this week.”

The Gators appear to have found something at linebacker in Howard and Shemar James, who played his best game of the season against UCF and finally looks like the All-SEC player he was before injuring his knee last year against Georgia. But the Gators still haven’t figured out who their best defensive tackles are, which means they have to rely on linebackers to clean things up and edge defenders like Jack Pyburn and Tyreak Sapp to play lights out consistently against the run. They’ve done it at times, this season as on this outstanding play by Pyburn.

Doing it consistently against a talented offensive line is a heavy lift on the road, and this matchup favors Tennessee as a result.

Can Tennessee create explosives in the passing game?

Nico Iamaleava is a gargantuan talent who can make all the throws. Take a look at this one late in the loss to Arkansas. There’s only a handful of humans on the planet who make this play.

What Iamaleava hasn’t done often this season — especially in Tennessee’s games against Power 4 conference opposition — is create explosives in the passing game. Tennessee ranks 79th nationally in explosive passing plays, and the bulk of those 15 explosive passing plays (11) came against the cupcakes the Volunteers feasted on to open the season.

How much did Tennessee’s soft early schedule inflate Iamaleava’s numbers? Take his average depth of target, for example. On the season, it is an outstanding 10.3. Against Oklahoma and Arkansas, it was 7.7, a mediocre number.

Some of this, as my colleague Connor O’Gara wrote this week, could be Joey Halzle and Josh Heupel simply playing it close to the vest in tough environments on the road. Doing that against Oklahoma especially made sense, given how dominant Tennessee’s defense was in that contest. There’s also the reality that no matter how immensely talented Iamaleava is — he is just a redshirt freshman. There will be growing pains, especially away from home.

Playing in Neyland Saturday night, though, you can bet Tennessee will want to take some shots downfield. Florida’s pass defense has allowed 23 completions of 20 yards or more this season, a number that ranks a grotesque 126th in the country. Corner Jason Marshall Jr. has been outstanding and allowed 0 of those completions. But the rest of Florida’s secondary can be had, and the Vols have the ability to exploit that weakness with Bru McCoy and Squirrel White, who are both expected to play.

Another interesting wrinkle? Can Iamaleava find explosives to receivers other than McCoy and White? Dont’e Thornton, Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II and Chris Nimrod have been non-factors against quality opponents, catching just 6-of-14 targets for 39 yards. That’s not good enough. If Florida tees off on slowing McCoy and White — that group will have its chances again Saturday.

Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway vs. the inexperienced Tennessee corners

Florida’s offense has played terrific for 6 of its past 8 quarters, lighting up Miss State for 45 points and over 500 yards in Starkville and scoring 24 points marching up and down the field throughout the first half of their win over UCF. Florida sputtered in the second half of the UCF game, collecting only 4 first downs and gaining just 101 yards. With a huge lead, Florida definitely took its foot off the gas, but the leaky offensive line play that plagued Florida in losses to Texas A&M and Miami reared its head late against UCF as well.

Nonetheless, this is an explosive Florida offense, especially in the passing game. The Gators rank 10th in SP+ offensive efficiency and 14th in offensive success rate, making them by far the best offense Tennessee has played to date (Arkansas ranked 40th and 39th in those metrics, best among past Vols opponents).

Tennessee is excellent at creating pressure with outstanding defensive ends in James Pearce Jr. and Joshua Josephs, who grade out among the top 10 edge players in the SEC, per PFF. But Florida tends to run quick concepts that allow a strong group of receivers to flourish in space. Graham Mertz, for example, averages just 7.6 in average depth per target but consistently makes the right read, allowing his offense to rank 12th in passing success rate.

Florida has 20 explosive pass plays this season, including 12 against Power 4 opposition. DJ Lagway, the “other” future star quarterback in this game, is especially explosive, averaging 11.1 yards in depth per target and connecting on his past 4 passes of 20 yards or more, including this absurd dart to Chimere Dike against UCF.

Tennessee has generated 93 pressures (second-best in the SEC) through 11 games, and Florida is likely to allow some pressure, especially dealing with crowd noise on the road.

For the Gators to have a chance to win, they’ll need to take advantage of Tennessee’s young corners Jermod McCoy, Jordan Matthews and Rickey Gibson III. McCoy has been steady all year, but Matthews and Gibson III have struggled, grading out below 65 in coverage, per PFF. Unlike Tennessee, Florida has received production from a host of receivers this season. The return of Tre Wilson, the highly recruited speedster who was Florida’s leading returning pass catcher but missed much of the past 3 games with an injury, gives this group its best receiver back just in time for the Tennessee game.

They’ll need Wilson and the rest of that talented group0 to hit at least 4 or 5 explosives in the passing game to give themselves a chance to win Saturday.

Prediction: Tennessee 30, Florida 21

The Gators are a strong bet with the points, but Tennessee’s running game will wear down Florida, and Nico Iamaleava will bounce back with a few big plays in the passing game to give the Volunteers a big rivalry win.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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