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Billy Napier talks to DJ Lagway during a Florida game.
College Football

DJ Lagway’s time arrives early at Florida, but is too late to save Billy Napier?

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. It shouldn’t be this way.

The plan for Billy Napier with DJ Lagway, his 5-star, national prep player of the year quarterback, was to ease him into a role and let him complement the play of a savvy, veteran quarterback.

Graham Mertz’s unfortunate, freakish season and college career ending knee injury, suffered without contact after throwing a touchdown in the 3rd quarter of Florida’s overtime loss to Tennessee, changes that plan immediately.

Given how well Graham Mertz was playing for Florida, including prior to injury in the eventual loss to Tennessee, the evidence suggests Napier’s plan was working.

Lagway was thriving in a smaller, but certainly not limited role, playing every 3 drives for the Gators, who rattled off 2 consecutive wins after moving to the “every 3 drive” system.

In Florida’s rout of Mississippi State in Starkville, Lagway became the first true freshman quarterback in the SEC since Jalen Hurts to lead 2 90-plus yard touchdown drives in a SEC road game.

In Florida’s dominant win over UCF, Lagway led Florida to 10 points on his 2 first-half possessions, including a beautifully executed 2-minute drill to help Florida claim a 24-3 lead at halftime.

Even in Florida’s loss at Tennessee, Lagway’s first and only full drive prior to Mertz’s injury traveled a smooth 73 yards into the red zone before Napier got too cute on 4th-and-5-inches and ran a bizarre jet sweep horizontally instead of letting Lagway line up under center and fall forward for a first down.

Lagway was less effective after the Mertz injury, tossing an interception on his first possession, taking 2 sacks, and averaging a season low 5.77 yards per attempt.

The freshman made a tremendous throw under pressure for a game-tying touchdown, however, and showed outstanding moxie facing a ferocious Tennessee pass rush while playing in one of college football’s toughest environments.

With Mertz’s too-soon exit stage right, it’s now “Lagway’s show” in Gainesville, as Napier said Monday afternoon.

Lagway’s unplanned arrival as Florida’s unquestioned starting quarterback begs the question: Can the Lagway show extend the Billy Napier show in Gainesville?

Lagway repeatedly has told anyone who would listen that he chose Florida — and stuck with his commitment despite furious late pursuit from several other programs — in part because of his relationship with Napier.

The commitment of Lagway to Napier and Napier to Lagway has now come full circle, as now Lagway is perhaps the one player who can deliver Napier a 4th season at Florida.

Napier is 14-17 at Florida and 1-9 in rivalry games. He’s 2-8 in his past 10 games against Power 5/4 competition. Florida’s final 6 games include 4 matchups against currently ranked foes, including 3 top-10 foes, and 2 top-5 teams in No. 5 Georgia in Jacksonville and a road trip to No. 1 Texas.

It’s a daunting schedule for any team and quarterback. It seems a herculean lift for a freshman.

The good news for the Gators is Lagway is a gargantuan talent.

Florida’s offensive upside under Lagway, the No. 7 overall recruit in the 247 composite and the Gatorade National Player of the Year in 2023, might be higher than it was under Mertz. The data bears that out, as Lagway’s yards per attempt of 10.63 is over 2 yards more  than Mertz’s 8.41 and his average depth of target of 10.6 is 3 yards larger than Mertz’s total of 7.6

Lagway’s big arm also forces safeties to stop cheating to stop the running game. The result is that the Gators average almost a full half yard more per rush (.47) when Lagway is quarterback compared to Mertz.

But Lagway’s high ceiling is accompanied by a lower floor than the Gators had under the steady Mertz. Florida is a much more volatile and turnover prone offense under Lagway, who has thrown 4 interceptions in 6 games — only 1 fewer than the 5 Mertz threw in his entire career in Gainesville. Granted, most of Lagway’s interceptions were due to situations beyond his control, such as a tipped ball and last-second heaves.

Still, Lagway is a work in progress reading the field as well, which will mean fewer successful plays on second reads and checkdowns than produced by  Mertz, whose 76.6% completion percentage leads the country.

Mertz largely did his part. He threw 26 touchdown passes in his season and a half. He broke Florida’s single-season completion percentage record (72.9) last fall and was even better this year.

Still, Lagway’s lofty ceiling should offer the Gators hope. In his first start, at home against Samford, Lagway threw for a Florida freshman record 456 yards, which included this astounding throw under pressure only a handful of humans on Earth can make.

“There’s nothing he can’t do,” Napier told the media Monday, and on film, Napier seems right.

Then again, maybe the one thing Lagway can’t do is save Napier’s job.

We’ll find out soon enough, beginning with a salty Kentucky defense that has physically imposed its will on Florida in both meetings in the Napier era.

A win is almost essential for Florida to harbor any dreams of a bowl game and winning season, two prerequisites to Florida’s administration to even consider retaining Napier for a 4th year.

With Graham Mertz, a win seemed likely.

With Lagway, it’s a dominant defense and a brutal test.

It’s also the first chance for Lagway and his chosen head coach to show that by winning one huge recruiting battle, Napier may have preserved his future at Florida.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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