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GAINESVILLE — After DJ Lagway’s record-breaking Swamp debut last Saturday night, Billy Napier vowed to “stay the course” at quarterback.
Sort of.
Assuming Graham Mertz clears concussion protocol, Napier’s plan is to start his senior at quarterback this Saturday when Texas A&M visits The Swamp (3:30 pm, EDT, ABC).
While Napier will stick with Mertz, he acknowledged the obvious: Florida’s offense looks different with Lagway, the 5-star freshman out of Willis, Texas.
“We’ll have a plan for DJ every week moving forward,” Napier told the media Saturday night. “He brings a different element to our team and we intend to play him every week. He’ll be a part of the plan moving forward.”
Like everyone else, Napier can’t ignore what he saw from Lagway.
But he also likes the idea of having a proven, veteran quarterback under center.
“I think that there has been a lot of these dynamics over the years in terms of having a veteran player who is accomplished, had a good career, coming back in a leadership role,” Napier explained Monday. “Then you have this young talented player. I think both players can make our team better. That’s what we intended (when Lagway signed).”
Make no mistake, Mertz is a good quarterback.
Mertz was the SEC’s most accurate returning passer and ranked No. 2 in success rate among returning SEC quarterbacks entering the season, trailing only Georgia’s Heisman candidate Carson Beck.
But there’s also the possibility that sticking with a seasoned, good quarterback might not be sustainable given the overwhelming talent of the freshman behind him. While not identical, the situation is reminiscent of Clemson’s quarterback room in 2018, when Trevor Lawrence started the season behind Kelly Bryant but became the Tigers starter after 4 games. Bryant was a good quarterback. He led Clemson to the College Football Playoff in 2017. But Lawrence was a transcendental, program-changing talent. Eventually, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney had to make the change.
In Gainesville, at least for now, there will be no change.
The Gators will forge forward with Mertz, who returned to Florida for his senior year to help Napier turn the corner in Year 3. Florida was embarrassed in Week 1 against Miami, but another opportunity looms Saturday against Texas A&M, the conference opener for both teams.
How will Florida utilize the two quarterbacks? What will DJ Lagway’s package look like?
Here are 3 thoughts.
Starting Mertz and giving him the first quarter makes sense against Mike Elko
It might not be a popular take with the Florida fan base, but there is value in starting Mertz against Texas A&M.
For one, Mike Elko is an excellent defensive mind and he’ll have Napier’s offense well-scouted.
Having a veteran quarterback who has seen multiple looks and disguised coverages will be useful to Florida early in the game, when the Aggies have scripted certain things defensively.
Mertz is also a strong “quick read” quarterback. This will be valuable against A&M’s outstanding defensive line, where Napier will want to have plays in place for Florida to get the ball out quick and offset the impact of the Aggies’ formidable front seven.
A season ago, Mertz ranked No. 3 in the SEC in short pass success rate and No. 4 in intermediate pass success rate, per PFF. He also ranked No. 2 in success rate on throws with an average depth of target under 5 yards, per PFF. These types of plays don’t frighten defenses, but the high success rate suggests Mertz consistently makes the proper read and throw in these situations. That will matter Saturday.
Lagway raises Florida’s ceiling — especially vertically
Lagway made multiple “wow” throws in his 456-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Samford in Week 2.
This throw, to Aidan Mizell, received acclaim from Heisman winners, current and former NFL quarterbacks, and at least former SEC Player of the Year.
This is the play and throw.
You don’t need to be a football savant to realize only a handful of players on earth can make this play and throw.
DJ Lagway is one of them . pic.twitter.com/lU60gtSEJX
— Neil W. Blackmon (@nwblackmon) September 8, 2024
But it wasn’t just that throw.
Lagway rolled to his right and threw an in-strike dime to Elijhah Badger for a 77-yard completion in the first quarter.
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1832562866672615721
All told, Florida hit 5 explosive pass plays of 40 yards or more Saturday. A season ago, the Gators finished the entire season with 9 such plays. Four of Florida’s 5 explosive plays of 40 yards or more counted as “big time throws,” per PFF, and Lagway finished the game with 5 such throws, the other being a 3rd-down, back shoulder dime for a first down to Chimere Dike in the first half.
Even accounting for the necessary disclaimer regarding Florida’s opponent, the Gators clearly have a higher explosive play ceiling under Lagway than Mertz.
Lagway’s package must include RPOs and lower risk throws
While Lagway didn’t register a “turnover worthy play” against Samford, he hasn’t been perfect.
He threw an interception under pressure against Miami in Week 1, and it’s worth noting his average depth of target vs. Miami was 9.7 compared to Mertz’s 11.3, per PFF.
Elko’s defense will almost certainly play with 2 deeper safeties when Lagway is in the game. Programmed to look for the deep ball, Napier will need to earn the chance to get vertical. He can do that by hitting quick passes underneath, like he did on his touchdown drive against the Hurricanes.
https://twitter.com/gatorsszn/status/1830639542723842151
But he’ll also need to have an RPO package that offers him simple options and quick reads, similar to this concept from Florida’s spring game.
Orange & Blue Game Film Review- RPO DJ Lagway to Taylor Spierto pic.twitter.com/8toX4NSFMl
— GatorNationFBPodcast (@GatorNationFBPC) April 17, 2024
Lagway has a high football IQ. That was the book on him at the Elite 11 camp and throughout his recruitment and it played out against Samford, when he talked about how he made some throws only “because of the opponent” and “knowing my receivers could win 1-on-1s in that situation.” He’s naturally thoughtful on the field.
But young quarterbacks almost universally are better when given less to think about. Napier should keep things simple for Lagway and let his natural ability and instincts do the rest.
If Florida does that, they may have an outstanding chance to succeed in a 2-quarterback system moving forward.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
