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3 matchups that will define Florida vs. LSU (and a prediction)

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

Florida and No. 22 LSU meet for the 71st time on Saturday afternoon in The Swamp (3:30 PM ET, ABC).

The Gators hold a narrow series lead but the Tigers have won the past 5, their longest winning streak in the history of what has become one of the SEC’s most zany rivalries.

Anything can and often does happen in the Florida-LSU game. To wit:

(1) an LSU win set up by a fake field goal in The Swamp in 2010;

(2) another LSU win secured by a fake field goal – this time in Death Valley in 2015;

(3) The entire saga of 2016, which started when LSU refused to allow Florida to reschedule a football game in Gainesville after a hurricane hit Florida’s coast in October. The Gators, who had raised over $200,000 for flood relief for Louisiana the year prior, didn’t appreciate LSU athletic director Joe Alleva refusing to accommodate the state of Florida’s own weather tragedy. The Gators then beat the Tigers in Death Valley with a goal-line stand, and celebrated securing a SEC title game berth on LSU’s home field. Florida announcer Mick Hubert’s call of the SEC East clinching stand remains iconic.

(4) The Swamp reaching earthquake levels of loud on Brad Stewart’s game-clinching pick-6 of Joe Burrow in 2018.

(5) And of course Marco Wilson’s shoe throw costing Florida the game — and likely a College Football Playoff spot — in 2020.

Florida is 20-29 in the sport since Wilson threw that shoe.

Will the Gators fall to a cool 20-30 in their past 50? Will LSU get a 6th consecutive win over the Gators?

LSU is favored by 4 points, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Here are 3 matchups that will define the Gators and the Tigers.

LSU’s Empty and Shock sets vs. Florida’s banged-up secondary

The staple of Brian Kelly’s offense is a series of empty and 1-back sets the Tigers call “Shock.”

The concept features 3 receivers to one side, a boundary receiver on the other side, and an “X” figure who can flex in the slot or as a solo running back. The concept is lauded in NFL circles for how multiple it makes an offense despite the base simplicity. LSU runs a host of concepts out of the formation, adapting it to any number of coverages. At its core, however, it involves 3 basic routes by the overloaded side of the field: a shallow hitch at the boundary, a slot fade, and a stick route by the inside receiver in trips — sometimes a tight end depending on concept. This base framework allows LSU to attack in a number of ways — and in the Kelly era, the Tigers have feasted on the Gators in this concept.

Above is the standard Shock/Lucy. The Florida defense pushes to the strongside, where the overload is located. That’s a simple read for the quarterback, who hits the intermediate route runner in the space vacated by Florida’s strongside push.

Here, Florida switches to man coverage, and LSU attacks vertically, hitting the isolated go by the backside receiver. Florida’s young safety has to choose between the slot-fade and the backside go — and with elite receiver talent, that split-second choice is enough to create separation.

LSU is struggling to run the football this season, but the one area they’ve been successful is using “Shock” to set up inside zone. Here, it looks more like an RPO (because the quarterback is Jayden Daniels) — but the concept works because of how well it spaces out the second level of a defense, making it difficult to fill run gaps on the inside as LSU attacks.

The Tigers’ excellent offense averages 6.31 yards per play this season and ranks 6th in SP+ offensive efficiency. “Shock” is their best concept — averaging 9.2 yards per play. The Tigers also have a pulse running out of “Shock” — averaging 4.7 yards per carry — their best number in any concept. They’ll need to run better to take pressure off quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He’s had a nice season but has attempted a staggering 375 passes, ranking 6th nationally. By Saturday, he’ll have thrown more than Heisman winners Joe Burrow (379) and Jayden Daniels (388) did their entire first seasons.

Florida might be the perfect foe for LSU to find balance.

The Gators enter having just been carved up by Texas, though Steve Sarkisian uses far more motion and misdirection than LSU. Florida is banged up — 3 starters in the secondary are out, as is Grayson Howard, Florida’s best linebacker. The backups were not up to the challenge against Quinn Ewers and Texas, but they need to be Saturday. If Florida can’t slow the “Shock” aspect of the LSU offense, it will be a long day for the Gators.

Florida’s power run game vs. LSU’s leaky run defense

LSU has surrendered 150 yards per game on the ground and 20 rushing touchdowns in 2024. The absence of Jacobian Guillory and All-American linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. has been felt in run fits on the interior in particular, where LSU surrenders 5.01 yards per carry this season and allows a success rate of 49.1%, 13th in the SEC, per Stats Solutions. In SEC play, the problems for LSU have been even more pronounced, as the Tigers have surrendered 4.75 yards or more per rush against 3 of their 5 conference foes to date.

The Gators should get All-SEC running back Montrell Johnson Jr. back for this game, giving a boost to a run game that has looked powerful over the past month. Johnson was injured against Tennessee and his return will give the Gators their best pass-protecting runner as well, making the offense more multiple. Johnson is also capable of the home run.

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1829989384965193754

True freshman Jadan Baugh runs a little like Le’Veon Bell, with a low center of gravity and strong leg drive that allows him to get stronger as the game goes on. Baugh’s success rate of 48.3% ranks 6th among SEC running backs. Johnson’s 8.1 yards per carry against ranked opponents leads the country.

This 1-2 punch for Florida will have to control the clock, help the battered defense rest, and move the chains to set up the pass for Florida to have a chance to win.

DJ Lagway vs. 2-high looks from LSU

DJ Lagway is progressing well from his hamstring injury suffered against Georgia. If I were a betting man, I’d wager the Gators are planning to have the freshman phenom give it a go in a rivalry game Saturday afternoon.

If that happens, Florida will hit an explosive or two down the field. That’s inevitable, as Lagway’s 13 explosive passes of 30 yards or more this season demonstrate. He’s tied for 2nd in the SEC with 11 such completions covering 40+ yards — on just 92 total attempts. Lagway’s average depth of target of 12.4 leads the SEC and his explosive pass success rate is a staggering 65% — more than 20% higher than any other quarterback in the country. The 5-star recruit and 2024 national prep player of the year has lived up the hype to date in Gainesville.

Lagway has feasted when opponents gang up to stop Florida’s running game. Lagway’s success against Kentucky illustrates this best.

On the above throw, Kentucky has an extra man in the box and 1 deep safety. This is a middle of the field zone and Lagway has 2 slot receivers running seam routes to exploit the 1-high safety look. Once the cheating Kentucky safety commits to tight end Hayden Hansen, Lagway has the matchup he wants against a corner and flat-footed safety in pursuit. This is a great read and a simple throw.

On this throw, Lagway again gets a 1-deep safety look. Florida uses pre-snap motion that usually signals run and the deep safety cheats. A corner then drops to protect the deep ball, but he can’t get over quick enough. Without a second high safety to help, Elijhah Badger ends up with a free release and Lagway makes a great throw to hit him in stride for a huge gain.

The questions for Lagway come when he faces 2-high or “Tampa 2” style defenses and is asked to make intermediate and short throws. Can Lagway consistently take what a defense gives him? He’s made some elite throws down the field against 2-high looks out of play-action, including this throw for a touchdown against Georgia.

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1852812772125421900

But he’s struggled to consistently execute in intermediate concepts — where Graham Mertz thrived. Lagway is just 8-for-22 on throws of 11-20 yards, per SEC StatCat. In SEC play, that number falls to just 5-for-18.

LSU is prolific at creating pressure with 3 or 4, ranking 4th in the SEC in quarterback pressures and sacks.

Lagway won’t have a great amount of time, and if LSU can confuse him by showing man but playing 2 high safeties or Cover 2, they’ll force him to take what the defense gives him, which goes against his natural instincts and what he’s shown he can do as a freshman to date. Expect LSU to sit in quarters or Cover 2 and force the issue.

Prediction: Florida 33, LSU 28 (assuming Lagway plays)

Florida will run the football effectively at home against an LSU team that is not gap sound and weak at linebacker beyond Whit Weeks. The Gators will also force at least 1 Garrett Nussmeier turnover. While the Gators will surrender some explosives in the passing game, Lagway, assuming he’s healthy enough to do so, will put together a performance with enough explosives of his own to put the Gators on the precipice of bowl eligibility. Florida snaps a 5-game losing streak to LSU with a huge win for Billy Napier in The Swamp.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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