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O’Gara: What Billy Napier’s 2025 return means for him, Florida and college football as a whole
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In Week 3, when Texas A&M finally stopped running all over Florida’s defense and the clock hit “0,” I assumed that time had also expired on the Billy Napier era in Gainesville. At that point, it appeared it was only a matter of time before Florida would agree to pay him a $26 million buyout, and it would begin the search for its 5th coach of the post-Urban Meyer era.
Suffering 2 blowout home losses in September usually isn’t the preamble for a coach on the hot seat who saves his job. Or if it somehow is the preamble, it’s on the heels of some monumental wins.
Nope. Consider that all the more reason to treat the situation in Gainesville as a unique one that has some layers to it.
On Thursday, Florida announced that Napier will be back in 2025.
A message from Scott Stricklin pic.twitter.com/NpLD6ktrHj
— Florida Gators (@FloridaGators) November 7, 2024
That exhale you heard was from Ole Miss fans who didn’t want to publicly entertain the thought of Lane Kiffin leaving for Gainesville, but privately felt great relief in Thursday’s news.
The timing of that announcement was certainly interesting. A 4-4 Florida squad was days removed from a closer-than-expected game against Georgia, wherein the Gators lost after they were down to their third-string QB, AKA a preferred walk-on from Yale. It was 2 days ahead of a game at No. 5 Texas, where the expectation is that their third-string QB, AKA a preferred walk-on from Yale, could be facing a daunting matchup with an injury-riddled roster.
Why now? And why did Florida need to announce that a coach under contract through 2027 was returning for the 2025 season?
The short of that is we’re in the home stretch of the recruiting cycle and the Gators could use all the help they could get with the nation’s No. 51 class. Fear of Napier’s potential exit certainly played a part in that ranking. Not having clarity on that decision would’ve only made things worse. There’s no denying that Napier will need a portal-heavy approach this offseason, which could begin 3 weeks from Saturday if Florida misses a bowl berth.
By announcing Napier’s return, he’ll avoid the questions on the recruiting trail about whether he’s coaching for his job down the stretch. Shoot, he’ll avoid the questions in his own locker room, which could be significant as the post-regular season transfer portal window opens.
You could argue that Napier should be coaching for his job down the stretch and that he shouldn’t be given a pass just because he could be without DJ Lagway. After all, Napier is 15-18 at Florida with a recruiting class that’s sitting outside of the top 50. Unless Napier beats a ranked team for the first time in 14 months — he’ll have 3 chances to do so with No. 5 Texas, No. 15 LSU and No. 16 Ole Miss — Florida will miss the postseason in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1985-86.
Two things can be true at the same time. One is that Florida isn’t a program that celebrates moral victories. Simply “hanging tough” is never going to define a coach’s tenure in Gainesville. The other is that if Florida had continued its disastrous September into October, Florida would have agreed to pay the $26 million buyout to send Napier packing.
Those sound like contradicting statements. I get that.
If Florida had agreed to extend Napier, it would’ve been a sign that it was celebrating moral victories. Napier isn’t getting that. He’ll be in the maddeningly rare group of Power Conference coaches who’ll enter next season with 3 seasons left on his contract (the maddening part is that coaches claim they can’t recruit unless they have at least 4 years remaining on their deals).
Florida is kicking the can to 2025 — much like Napier did when he decided not to go for the 2-point conversion at the end of regulation at Tennessee — and you’d better believe that Lagway has a ton to do with that.
In a limited sample size, the Gatorade National Player of the Year looked the part as a true freshman. In this era of loosened transfer restrictions, it’s unrealistic to assume that Florida could fire Napier and keep Lagway. Perhaps it could’ve happened, but given how heavily Lagway bought into Napier during his high-profile recruitment process when he left the state of Texas, that didn’t seem likely. Consider Lagway the Jimmy Chitwood to Napier’s Norman Dale. Even if Lagway never had to get in front of Florida’s administration and say his presence was dependent on his coach staying, one could imply that.
(That’s a “Hoosiers” reference, people. I hope an explanation was only necessary for the extreme minority of readers of this column.)
Florida is banking on the second-year version of Lagway not only keeping core skill players in Gainesville, but also allowing him to be an asset in recruiting transfer portal targets. Again, one would assume that’ll be a major part of Florida’s 2025 identity when Napier will again be fighting to save his job. What that bar to meet looks like remains to be seen. Context will be needed if Florida’s schedule is again among the most difficult in the sport, though one would think failing to even compete for a Playoff spot will be seen as a disappointment if that’s the result.
Thursday’s announcement was met with another potential realization — does Napier’s return and Florida’s avoidance of his $26 million signal the start of a new era? As in, a new era in which athletic departments avoid paying hefty buyouts with the $20 million revenue sharing for athletes beginning next year?
Over time, that could certainly be the case. In this specific instance, Florida’s funds weren’t lacking. All indications were that not only were the Gators willing to pay what would’ve been the second-richest buyout ever for a head coach — $26 million to Napier would’ve been a distant second place to Jimbo Fisher’s $76 million buyout at Texas A&M — but that they were willing to pursue an established Power Conference coach to succeed him.
What changed? The defense completely turned around in October. Lagway looked the part. Most important, Florida stopped being a punching bag.
The Gators will take a few jabs for keeping Napier (by its own fan base and others), but they also would’ve taken jabs for having their 4th consecutive coach fail to get a Year 5. Of course, they aren’t out of the woods with avoiding that dubious cycle just yet. Napier will have to deliver in Year 4 to reach Year 5, and everyone will know it. A coach who needs a public vote of confidence deserves to lead any sort of hot-seat list until further notice.
By now, though, Napier should be used to that. All that matters to him is that there’s still some time on the clock.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
