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Kirby Smart has only been coaching the Georgia Bulldogs for two years but it’s already clear what kinds of teams he has built.
The 2017 Bulldogs have been a much better squad than the 2016 Dawgs, but the same trends are there — strong running game, talented defense, passing when needed.
Heading into tonight’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game against Alabama, there are certain things the Bulldogs need to do to give themselves a good chance to win, as the trends under Smart show.
Here are 10 things that have led Georgia to success the past two seasons:
Throwing for 300-plus yards
The Bulldogs don’t have the best passing attack, but they haven’t needed it thanks to a strong ground game behind star running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.
However, true freshman quarterback Jake Fromm can still sling it a little bit, and Georgia is 2-1 when throwing for 300 or more yards in a game during the Smart era. That will be a tough task against Alabama’s elite defense, but Fromm will need to have a big game to give his team a chance to win.
Throwing for less than 100 yards
Interestingly, the Dawgs are also a perfect 2-0 under Smart when they throw for fewer than 100 yards. On the surface, that seems strange, but it’s more of a testament to their running game than anything else.
When the Bulldogs are going strong, their running game carries the load and Fromm and the receivers don’t need to produce much. Obviously, if they throw for less than 100 yards against Alabama they probably won’t win, but it is interesting to note the success they’ve had this year without doing much damage through the air.
Scoring first
Playing with a lead is great when you have a strong running game and an elite defense. The Bulldogs have used that formula to great success the past two years, going 15-3 when they get on the scoreboard first.
That could be significant if Georgia wins the coin toss, as it might want to take possession to try to set the tone against the Alabama defense.
Holding a halftime lead
Obviously, the more quarters a team leads, the better its chances of winning. But the Bulldogs have been especially good at closing out in the second half under Smart.
In 17 games in which they’ve held the halftime lead, the Dawgs are 16-1, with the only loss coming against Tennessee last year, when Georgia led 17-7 at the intermission before Joshua Dobbs and the Vols launched an impressive second-half comeback complete with a winning Hail Mary.
Having a 100-yard rusher
Most teams succeed with this, and the Bulldogs have already had 14 rushers eclipse the 100-yard mark in Smart’s short tenure with the team.
In those games, Georgia is an impressive 13-1, with several of those wins coming this year. With Chubb, Michel and even freshman D’Andre Swift capable of having big games, it’s nice for offensive coordinator Jim Chaney to know that any one of those guys can go off for a big game at any given time.
Rushing for 200 total yards
Though the Dawgs can get big games from any one back, they also find a lot of success when they succeed on the ground as a team.
In Smart’s 27 games at the helm of the program, Georgia has rushed for 200 or more yards an impressive 19 times, going 17-2 in those contests.
Allowing less than 100 yards rushing
Alabama’s strength, of course, is running the ball, whether with star RBs Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough or dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts.
However, if Georgia’s defense can slow down that aspect of the Tide’s game, the Dawgs are 8-1 under Smart against teams that fail to total 100 yards on the ground.
Allowing fewer than 20 points
Many are predicting tonight’s game will be low-scoring and that bodes well for the Bulldogs.
In games in which they allow 20 or fewer points, they boast a sterling 13-1 record, with the one loss coming last year against Vanderbilt.
Playing against ranked teams at neutral sites
The Bulldogs have played four ranked teams at neutral sites in the past two years and have gone 3-1 against them, with wins against Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, Auburn in the SEC Championship Game and against North Carolina in Atlanta last year.
Their only neutral-site loss to a ranked team came against Florida in Jacksonville last season, a 24-10 disappointment at the hands of their SEC East rivals.
Tonight they’ll get their fifth chance at a ranked squad on a neutral site.
Playing at night
Interestingly, the Bulldogs seem to play better at night, going 8-0 the past two years under Smart. They’re only 13-6 during the daytime, so the lights seem to bring out the best in the Dawgs.
Of course, the National Championship Game kicks off at 8 p.m. Eastern, so that seems to be a great sign for Georgia fans ….
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
