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LSU advanced stats preview: Tigers are amongst SEC’s best in 2024 despite major roster, staff turnover

By Spenser Davis

Published: Jun 30, 2024 · 4:18 PM EDT

LSU enters the 2024 season with significant expectations despite undergoing quite a bit of turnover on both sides of the ball this offseason.

The Tigers lost a Heisman Trophy winner, 2 first-round picks at wide receiver and their offensive coordinator this offseason. They also chose to revamp their defensive coaching staff after a rough year on that end of the field. Head coach Brian Kelly was tasked with replacing each of those pieces — and more — as LSU looks to compete for a College Football Playoff berth this fall.

This breakdown is intended to show some of the advanced numbers behind LSU’s performance from last season — with an eye on what it could mean for the program in 2024.

Here’s an advanced stats preview for LSU in 2024 followed by a look at what the betting markets are projecting for the Tigers:

When LSU had the ball in 2023

Rushing success rate: 58% (100th percentile)

Passing success rate: 54% (99th percentile)

LSU’s offense was completely unstoppable in 2023. It didn’t matter if the Tigers were pounding the rock or airing it out, they were as efficient as anyone in college football last season. LSU also ranked above the 90th percentile nationally in explosiveness, points per scoring opportunity and passing down rate, to name a few other categories.

It’s not surprising to see these numbers given that Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy despite the Tigers going 9-3 during the regular season, but it’s still jarring to see just how dominant this offense was last season.

What did LSU lose?

Notable transfers: Logan Diggs, RB; Lance Heard, OL;

Notable NFL departures: Jayden Daniels, QB; Malik Nabers, WR; Brian Thomas Jr., WR; Noah Cain, RB; Charles Turner III, OL;

LSU lost a lot of what made it so successful on the offensive side of the ball. Daniels turned pro and was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Tigers also lost their top 2 receivers in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., both of whom also ended up as first-round picks. Running back will also feature some relatively-new faces with leading rushers Cain and Diggs both moving on this offseason.

It also must be noted that LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock returned to Notre Dame this offseason. Denbrock played a huge role in constructing LSU’s 2023 offense and is one of the more respected OC’s in the country. Brian Kelly replaced Denbrock by promoting Joe Sloan and Cortez Hankton to co-offensive coordinator roles. Sloan is expected to be the primary play-caller and was LSU’s quarterbacks coach a season ago. Sloan’s only previous experience as an offensive coordinator came at Louisiana Tech.

What did LSU add?

Notable additions: CJ Daniels, WR; AJ Swann, QB; Zavion Thomas, WR;

Despite losing quite a bit of talent offensively, the Tigers weren’t all that active in the transfer portal. They did bring in a couple of wide receivers to compete for starting roles and former Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann, who is expected to compete for a backup role.

It’s not an addition, but LSU will presumably turn to Garrett Nussmeier to start at quarterback in 2024. Nussmeier has been a multi-year backup with LSU, but appears to be ready for the starting role. In LSU’s bowl game win over Wisconsin to end last season, Nussmeier threw for 395 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. How he performs in a starting role against SEC competition will go a long way toward determining LSU’s upside this season.

Another key here for LSU is that it returns 4 starters on the offensive line, with the only exception being at center. Former 4-star recruit DJ Chester is currently expected to step into that role, and it’s clear the staff believes in his ability to do so after it didn’t go after any centers in the portal this offseason. Will Campbell and Emery Jones are 2 of the SEC’s best offensive tackles. LSU also has a lot of experience at both guard spots with Garrett Dellinger and Miles Frazier set to return in 2024.

When LSU didn’t have the ball in 2023

Rushing success rate: 45% (33rd percentile)

Passing success rate: 45% (19th percentile)

As good as LSU’s offense was last season, the defense really fell below expectations. The Tigers finished 12th in the SEC in yards-per-play-allowed, ahead of only Florida and Vanderbilt. They were also 11th in the SEC in pass defense efficiency rating and 12th in yards per carry allowed.

LSU didn’t grade out well in any advanced metric either. In addition to having poor success rates, the Tigers were in the bottom quartile in passing down success rate, explosiveness and points per scoring opportunity.

What did LSU lose?

Notable transfers: Denver Harris, DB; Jaxon Howard, DL; Quency Wiggins, DL;

Notable NFL departures: Maason Smith, DT; Jordan Jefferson, DT; Mekhi Wingo, DT; Andre Sam, DB; Ovie Oghoufo, LB; Omar Speights, LB;

LSU’s biggest losses on the defensive side of the ball came up front. Maason Smith and Mekhi Wingo were hugely-impactful defensive tackles and will now be playing on Sundays as a result of their work in Baton Rogue. Of the group that went pro, only Smith, Jefferson and Wingo were drafted. None of LSU’s transfer losses played big roles in 2023, although some did have potential to contribute down the line.

What did LSU add?

Notable additions: Jardin Gilbert, DB; Gio Paez, DL; PJ Woodland, DB;

LSU made a few defensive pickups in the portal, but none bigger than Gilbert and Paez. Both of those players are expected to compete for significant roles at their respective positions. There’s also the arrival of 3-star cornerback PJ Woodland, who only gets a mention here because he appears to have won a starting job after going through the spring in Baton Rogue.

As a result of LSU’s struggles on the defensive side of the ball last season, Kelly revamped the program’s defensive coaching staff. LSU hired Blake Baker away from Mizzou to be the program’s new defensive coordinator. Missouri last season won 11 games in-part because of Baker’s defense. Missouri’s defense graded out in the 86th percentile nationally in terms of defensive success rate in 2023.

Kelly and Baker also hired a few other new defensive assistants: Corey Raymond, Kevin Peoples, Bo Davis and Jake Olsen. LSU is hoping its new-look coaching staff will lead to serious improvement on that side of the ball in 2024.

The Bottom line

Believing in LSU in 2024 requires strong faith in the work that Kelly did on his defensive coaching staff this offseason. That’s not hard to do, as all of the Tigers’ new defensive assistants come with strong reputations. Perhaps the bigger leap of faith would have to happen on the offensive side of the ball, where LSU will be relying upon an unproven quarterback in Nussmeier and a host of new players at receiver and running back.

LSU’s offense will surely take a step back in 2024 from what it was a year ago, at least from a success rate perspective. But with 4 starting offensive linemen returning and plenty of raw talent at skill positions, there seems to be plenty of reason for optimism in Baton Rouge. The defense is in position to make a big stride forward, which should lead to a much better overall team than the one LSU fans watched in 2023.

LSU futures market outlook

Multiple sports betting apps are currently offering props for LSU to win the SEC, reach the College Football Playoff and more. Here’s a breakdown of how the betting markets are projecting LSU to perform in 2024:

Win total: 9.5 wins (Over is +130, Under is -160) | FanDuel

LSU has won 9 games during each of the last 2 regular seasons. The Tigers haven’t cleared the 9.5-win threshold (before bowl season) since it went 15-0 and won the national championship during the 2019 campaign. LSU will meet USC and UCLA as nonconference opponents and then will battle teams like Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma in SEC play.

Odds to win the SEC: +1000 | FanDuel

LSU has the 5th-best odds to win the SEC as of publication, per FanDuel. Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama all have better odds at this point in the offseason. LSU has won the SEC 3 times in the last 20 years: 2007, 2011 and 2019.

Want to bet on LSU during the offseason? Here’s everything you need to know about the best Louisiana online sports betting apps on the market in 2024!

Odds to make the Playoff: +120 | DraftKings

The College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams in 2024, which creates a lot of opportunity for a strong program like LSU to make the field without needing to win the SEC title. The Tigers are a near-coin flip to reach the Playoff this year, per the betting markets. LSU has finished outside of the CFP committee’s top-12 in each of the last 2 seasons under Kelly. LSU’s only appearance in the CFP during the 4-team era came at the end of the 2019 season.

Odds to win the national title: +1600 | DraftKings

LSU has the 7th-best odds to win the national championship this season, per DraftKings. It trails only Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, Alabama and Ole Miss in that regard. The Tigers have 4 national championships in their history, most recently in 2019.

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.