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Women’s College World Series championship betting preview: Can Texas end Oklahoma’s reign?
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The Women’s College World Series championship series will get underway on Wednesday evening.
It will be No. 1 Texas vs. No. 2 Oklahoma in a rematch of the 2022 champ series. The Sooners swept Texas in that postseason matchup, winning their 2nd of 3 (and possibly 4) consecutive WCWS titles.
Oklahoma entered the week as a significant betting favorite to win its 4th straight title despite being the No. 2 seed in this tournament. The Sooners were -140 to win this tournament before the week began, and most books haven’t moved far off of that price.
These teams have already met 4 times this season as Big 12 foes. They split those meetings, with Texas taking 2-of-3 during the regular season but Oklahoma getting the best of the Longhorns in the Big 12 Tournament title game.
Here’s a breakdown of the betting lines and some advanced stats in this series:
Oklahoma vs. Texas betting lines (Game 1)
Where to bet Oklahoma: FanDuel | -120
Where to bet Texas: Caesars | +105
States: MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IA, WY, IL, IN, OH, MI, NY
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Oklahoma vs. Texas betting lines (Series price)
Where to bet Oklahoma: bet365 | -135
Where to bet Texas: bet365 | +115
Oklahoma remains a slight favorite in this series despite needing some late-game heroics from Jayda Coleman to even reach the champ series. Florida gave Oklahoma as much as it could handle over the past couple of days, while Texas was able to cruise to the Champ Series with wins over Stanford (twice) and Florida. Texas was +400 to win the WCWS before the week began.
States: NJ, PA, AZ, CO, IA, IN, KY, NJ, LA, OH, VA GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (CO/KY/LA/NJ/OH/VA) and 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA) 21+ (CO/IA/NJ/OH/VA) and 18+ (KY)
When Oklahoma is pitching
Kelly Maxwell has been Oklahoma’s ace throughout the year, and that has been especially true in the postseason. Kierston Deal and Nicole May have been counted on at times in key spots, with mixed results. Patty Gasso typically likes to give her ace as much rest as possible in OKC, and that nearly came back to bite OU as Deal and May were roughed up by Florida (9 earned runs in 5.2 innings) in the the first semifinal game. The Gators also hit Maxwell hard early in the winner-take-all game on Tuesday, but she was able to recover with 5 consecutive scoreless frames in OU’s 6-5 win.
Overall, Maxwell hasn’t been the elite force in the circle that Jordy Bahl was over the past 2 trips to Oklahoma City. But she has been good enough to lead the Sooners to a 57-7 record this season and owns a 2.00 ERA on the year. Perhaps most importantly, the lefty Maxwell has pitched very well against Texas this season. Here’s a summary of her appearances against the Longhorns in 2024:
- April 5: 7 innings, 3 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 walks and 10 strikeouts
- April 7: 4.2 innings, 3 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk and 6 strikeouts
- May 11: 5.1 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 3 walks and 7 strikeouts
Those numbers translate to a 2.05 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a strikeouts-per-7 innings of 9.47. If Maxwell gets those types of results during the champ series, Oklahoma will love its chances to complete the first-ever 4-peat.
Maxwell’s success against Texas this year is no accident. According to advanced data from ESPN, the Longhorns struggle (relative to their usual levels) against lefties and drop-ball pitchers — one of Maxwell’s primary offerings. Per numbers from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Texas’ batting average dropped from No. 1 nationally overall to No. 22 vs. lefties and No. 10 vs. drop-ball pitches. The Longhorns experienced similar drops in production in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage and chase rate as well.
Still, Texas’ lineup is extremely formidable. Led by Reese Atwood, the Longhorns have one of the best offenses in the country. Atwood hit .429 this season with 23 home runs and 90 RBI in 63 games. Mia Scott, Katie Stewart and Alyssa Washington also each reached double-digit home runs. Everyone in Texas’ lineup hit at least .340 this season.
If Oklahoma does have to go to someone other than Maxwell at some point in this series, things could get uncomfortable for the Sooners. Deal would make sense as another lefty who could give Texas’ lineup some issues, but May is a senior who has more experience on this stage. It’s worth noting that it was May who was called upon to start against Florida in the semifinals earlier this week.
Interested in betting on the Women’s College World Series? Here’s a list of the best sports betting apps on the market in 2024 to help you get started!
When Texas is pitching
Perhaps Texas’ biggest advantage in this series is its pitching depth. Unlike Oklahoma, who will likely be forced to lean almost exclusively on Maxwell, Texas has a full staff of capable arms to throw at the Sooners.
Citaly Gutierrez, Mac Morgan and Teagan Kavan all have sub-2.00 ERAs this season in 90+ innings of work. In previous matchups against Oklahoma, it was Gutierrez who mostly carried the responsibility of facing the Sooners. She did well for the most part, allowing just 4 earned runs across 14 innings of work.
However, it has been Morgan and Kavan who have pitched in high-leverage spots so far in Oklahoma City. In Game 1 against Stanford, Kavan threw a 1-hitter across 7 scoreless frames against the Cardinal. Morgan shutout Florida in Game 2 in a run-rule victory over the Gators. Then in Game 3, it was once again Kavan out-dueling the great NiJaree Canady with 7 scoreless innings in a win over Stanford.
Texas head coach Mike White clearly has 3 good options at his disposal as he considers who might be the best choice for Game 1 against the Sooners.
On the other hand, facing this Oklahoma lineup is a chore. The Sooners have a group of seniors that are unmatched in college softball history in regards to their production, experience and accomplishments. Jayda Coleman, Tiare Jennings, Kinzie Hansen and Riley Boone are going for their 4th consecutive WCWS titles this week. Alyssa Brito and Alynah Torres are transfers who have also been big parts of OU’s previous titles (this would be Brito’s 3rd and Torres’ 2nd). Scattered amongst that group are numerous all-conference and All-America honors throughout their storied careers.
Coleman leads off in front of Jennings, who is (somewhat quietly) up to 3rd all-time in college softball history with 97 career home runs. Hansen and Brito are crucial middle-of-the order hitters as well. Then there’s OU’s freshman duo of Ella Parker and Kasidi Pickering, who both had big hits in the Sooners’ win over Florida on Tuesday. There isn’t a reprieve anywhere in this lineup, as even 9-hole-hitter Avery Hodge — who has been playing for the injured Torres — went 3-for-7 with a couple of doubles across 2 matchups vs. the Gators.
Game 1 of Oklahoma vs. Texas is set for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday night. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
States: NJ, PA, AZ, CO, IA, IN, KY, NJ, LA, OH, VA GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (CO/KY/LA/NJ/OH/VA) and 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA) 21+ (CO/IA/NJ/OH/VA) and 18+ (KY)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
