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College World Series 2024 betting picks: Predictions, analysis

Published: Jun 13, 2024 · 10:00 PM EDT

The 2024 College World Series will finally get underway in Omaha on Friday with Bracket 1 action.

This year’s field is unique, as it features 4 teams from the SEC and 4 teams from the ACC. Tennessee and Texas A&M are considered to be the top favorites for this event by most sports books. However, the College World Series is notoriously unpredictable — the No. 1 overall seed hasn’t won the national title since 1999.

Without further adieu, here are 3 betting picks for the 2024 College World Series:

Florida State to defeat Tennessee in the first round (+140 on bet365)

This pick comes down to the projected pitching matchups in this game. As the No. 1 overall, Tennessee is a considerable favorite — but the Vols do not have the pitching advantage in this contest.

Tennessee coach Tony Vitello confirmed on Thursday that the Vols will trot out lefty Chris Stamos to start again on Friday. Stamos will serve as an opener, with AJ Causey coming in after 1-2 innings (or whenever Stamos gets into trouble). Causey has been solid, but Stamos has routinely put Tennessee into a hole early in on on his starts before Causey (and the Vols’ elite offense) typically come in to save the day.

However, against Florida State, that might not be as feasible as it usually is. The Noles have arguably the top pitcher in Omaha in sophomore Jamie Arnold. The top 2025 draft prospect has struck out a staggering 155 batters in 100.2 innings this season. He also has a very low walk rate to go along with an ERA of 2.77 on the year.

FSU also has a good enough offense to hang with the Vols. The Noles rank in the top-10 nationally in both batting average and home runs, amongst some other key offensive statistics. Cam Smith and James Tibbs III are as productive as any middle-of-the-order bats in the SEC (with the possible exceptions of Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone). This is a highly-dangerous lineup that could pose a lot of issues for a Tennessee team that hasn’t been tested by an elite team since the end of the SEC Tournament.

Saturday Road’s Brett Friedlander predicted this week that Florida State will win the national championship (over Florida) in honor of the late Mike Martin. Alternatively, Saturday Down South’s Derek Peterson made the case for backing Tennessee to win it all earlier this week.

The ACC to be the winning conference (+190 on FanDuel)

For the first time in the modern era, only 2 conferences will be represented in Omaha. The SEC and ACC are sending 4 teams apiece, so FanDuel has given odds for which conference will ultimately end up winning it all.

The SEC has the top 3 overall seeds (Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas A&M), so it makes since that the ACC would be underdogs on this prop. However, I’m siding with the ACC here because I think is slightly miss-priced.

For help with this prop, here’s a look at the projections from Parker Fleming’s model for each remaining team’s championship odds:

College World Series Win Probabilities

Tennessee 24.5%
Texas A&M 19.6%
North Carolina 17.8%
Kentucky 14.1%
Florida St. 10.4%
Virginia 5.8%
NC State 4.8%
Florida 3.0%

— parker fleming (@statsowar) June 11, 2024

If you add up the percentages for the ACC and the SEC, here’s what you get:

61.2% chance for a SEC team to win the title
38.8% chance for an ACC team to win the title

FanDuel’s price of +190 carries an implied probability of 34.48% for an ACC team to win the College World Series. The difference between the implied odds from FanDuel and Fleming’s projection equals an expected value of $12.52 on a $100 bet. That’s enough value for me to take the ACC on this prop.

As an aside, there’s also significant value on betting North Carolina to win the College World Series (+700 on FanDuel) if you take Fleming’s projections at face value. Any of the 4 remaining ACC teams are capable of getting hot and winning this tournament, but UNC and Florida State seem like the most-likely options.

RELATED: Betting preview for Bracket 1 at the College World Series

Texas A&M to reach the final (+125 on bet365)

Texas A&M is the clear favorite to emerge from Bracket 2 — a group that also includes Kentucky, NC State and Florida. Ultimately, the Aggies are going up against 3 flawed teams. Kentucky, Florida and NC State all have major pitching question marks entering this week in Omaha.

Here’s the team-wide ERAs for every team on this side of the bracket (along with their national ranking):

Texas A&M: 3.94 (6th)
Kentucky: 4.95 ERA (52nd)
NC State: 6.09 ERA (154th)
Florida: 6.16 ERA (158th)

NC State and Florida have been borderline helpless on the mound at different times this season, and Kentucky has been far from elite. The Wildcats have one frontline arm in Trey Pooser, who Texas A&M won’t have to face (on full rest at least) as Pooser is expected to throw in Game 1 against NC State. The Aggies are likely to get Mason Moore in a hypothetical winner’s bracket matchup against UK. Moore has been decent this year, but is coming off of a 6-walk performance against Oregon State in the Supers. That’s not a great matchup against a Texas A&M team that leads the country in walks.

Losing Braden Montgomery to an ankle injury last week was devastating for the Aggies, especially considering the incredible season he had in 2024. But this A&M team has more than enough talent to get out of this bracket. The Aggies have 5 other hitters who are batting at least .295 this season with plenty of pop to go around. On the mound, A&M has one of the best pitching staffs in the country led by ace Ryan Prager. Beyond Prager, the strength of A&M’s staff is with its numerous trustworthy bullpen arms.

Texas A&M is a -190 favorite over Florida on Saturday night, per bet365 — the most lopsided money line of any first-round matchup in Omaha this year.

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Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.