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College World Series futures market analysis: Favorites, dark-horses and long-shots

Published: May 15, 2024 · 12:04 PM EDT

The 2024 college baseball season is winding down, with the College World Series not too far away.

The final series of the regular season will take place this weekend. Things across the country have shifted a bit since the last futures market update in late April, although the same 3 teams are at the top of the list of favorites: Tennessee, Texas A&M and Arkansas.

The order of those 3 programs has changed, however, and it’s also worth examining some of the dark-horses and long-shots who could surprise the college baseball world this postseason.

Here’s a breakdown of the College World Series futures market heading into the final weekend of the regular season:

3 favorites

Tennessee (+650 on FanDuel)

The Vols have climbed up from +1000 in the last update to be a co-favorite with Texas A&M and Arkansas going into this final weekend of the regular season. The Vols are up to No. 2 nationally in WarrenNolan’s ELO rankings and have not dropped an SEC series since dropping 2-of-3 to Alabama back in mid-March.

Tennessee’s offense has been elite this season. The Vols lead all power conference teams with 495 runs through 52 games. UT’s pitching staff is also very strong, as it boasts a top-5 ERA nationally at 3.86. It’s difficult to find an obvious weakness when breaking down this Tennessee team’s statistical profile.

This is a Vols team with plenty of experience on the sport’s biggest stage. Tennessee has reached Omaha in 2 of the past 3 seasons and looks to be a strong favorite to do so again in 2024.

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Texas A&M (+650 on FanDuel)

The Aggies have long been one of the favorites to win the College World Series this season. Like Tennessee, Texas A&M ranks in the top-10 nationally in both runs scored and ERA.

Texas A&M has a big series coming up this weekend as it will face Arkansas in a 3-game home series that could determine the outcome of the SEC West. Texas A&M needs to sweep the Razorbacks in order to take home the division crown.

If you like the Aggies, this is a very good price from FanDuel. Texas A&M is the outright favorite at other books such as ESPN BET, where it’s currently priced at +450 to win the CWS.

Arkansas (+700 on DraftKings)

Arkansas has slipped a little bit since the last futures update, but the Hogs are still top contenders for the national championship because of its pitching staff. Led by Hagen Smith, Arkansas has a 3.46 ERA has a team this season — which is tops amongst power-conference programs nationally.

Arkansas’ bats have struggled a bit this year relative to other top contenders. However, things appear to be trending in a positive direction for the Razorbacks. So far in May, Arkansas has scored 6.33 runs per game in 6 contests against top-15 opposition (Kentucky and Mississippi State). When Smith is throwing (1.65 ERA), that’s more than enough run support. It may even be enough when Brady Tygart or Mason Molina are on the mound.

Still, you’d like to see Arkansas’ bats heat up a bit more heading into the postseason. For the season, Arkansas is 115th in runs scored and 145th in slugging percentage.

2 dark-horses

Georgia (+3000 on ESPN BET)

With all the talent in the SEC this season, Georgia has somehow gone under-the-radar. But the Bulldogs enter the final weekend of the regular season with a shot at a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament, depending on how results unfold this week.

Georgia has arguably the nation’s best player in Charlie Condon, who is hitting .454 with 34 home runs so far this season. Condon is looking like a strong bet to be the No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft this summer.

Like many teams around the country, Georgia’s pitching staff leaves something to be desired. The Bulldogs only have 1 starting pitcher who has made more than 10 starts so far this season in Leighton Finley, and he has an ERA of 4.45. Still, with an offense like UGA’s, the Bulldogs would only need a little bit of help from its staff to make a deep run in this tournament.

Oklahoma (+6000 on bet365)

There appears to be tremendous value on Oklahoma at this number (other books have the Sooners as low as +4000). OU is surging late in the year, having won 6 straight entering the regular-season finale against Cincinnati.

If OU is able to make a deep run at the Big 12 Tournament, the Sooners could be in position to host a super regional in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma was the No. 10 seed in D1Baseball’s latest bracket projection from last week, and that was before OU crushed Baylor over a 3-game series this past weekend.

Even if Oklahoma doesn’t end up with a top-8 seed, +6000 is still solid value for a team that has been dominant (21-6) in the Big 12 this season.

1 long-shot

UC Santa Barbara (+10000 on DraftKings)

There’s a simple reason for this pick: Value. UC Santa Barbara is 8th nationally in Warren Nolan’s ELO rankings, ahead of the likes of Mississippi State and Clemson. The Gauchos are 36-12 and have won 8 straight games entering this weekend.

UC Santa Barbara is projected to host a regional, per D1Baseball’s most recent projection, so there’s a relatively-attainable path to Omaha for the Gauchos if they play well in the postseason.

It’s tough to evaluate this team against other contenders because they’ve played at a much lower level than the SEC (for example), but the talent appears to be there. You shouldn’t ignore the Gauchos — especially at this price point.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.