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Friedlander: Favorable Super Regional matchups could make for a crowd of ACC teams in Omaha
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With 5 teams in the Super Regionals, 4 of them hosting, the road to the College World Series runs directly through the ACC.
Given the circumstances and history, it’s not a matter of whether the league will extend its streak to 18 consecutive years of sending a team to Omaha as much as how many teams will go along for the ride.
The way things are going, it might need to order a bigger bus.
The record for teams from a single conference making it to the CWS in a season is 4. It’s happened 6 times, including 2016 when the ACC sent Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami and North Carolina, with the Tar Heels making it all the way to the championship game before losing to Oregon State.
This year’s contingent might not be as imposing or loaded up with as many 1st-round MLB Draft prospects. But according to FanDuel sportsbook, 4 of the 5 are favored to win this weekend’s super regionals.
Some of that has to do with bracket luck. Florida State (-350), Virginia (-300), UNC (-265) and Clemson (-184) will all face opponents that were seeded 3rd in their respective regionals. Only NC State (+122) will be matched against a top-8 national seed when it travels to Georgia for its best-of-3 series.
Even then, the Wolfpack have a history of overcoming the odds. The last time they went to the CWS, in 2021, they got there by upsetting No. 1 overall seed Arkansas. And they did it after losing Game 1 21-2.
It only goes to prove that while national seedings, home-field advantage and betting odds are nice, they’re about as important as the brand of hot dogs served at the concession stand once the first pitch is thrown.
One hot pitcher, one misjudged fly ball, one big inning can change everything.
And that’s not taking into account the variables.
For UNC, it’s the potential for a post-regional hangover after a physically and emotionally taxing 3-game battle against LSU. After 3 grueling games against the defending national champions, including a late come-from-behind extra-inning effort in the decider, it would only be human nature for the Tar Heels to take a deep breath and relax for the start of a new series.
Especially against a West Virginia team that got through its regional without having to face the top seed, Arizona, and is making its first trip to the Supers.
The Tar Heels won the ACC regular season and are the No. 4 overall seed and are hitting 35 points higher with 21 more home runs than the Mountaineers, who finished 4th in the Big 12. And yet that advantage could easily be equalized in Friday’s series opener by WVU ace Derek Clark, a crafty left-hander with a 2.82 ERA and 4 complete games. Or one big swing from JJ Wetherhold, a potential top-5 pick in the upcoming draft.
Clemson faces an even trickier matchup.
Sure, Florida was a 3 seed in the Oklahoma State Regional. And a lot of folks outside the SEC were upset – no, incensed – that they got into the field despite a 13-17 conference mark and an overall record barely above .500.
But are you ready to lump the defending national runner-up, anchored by the Shohei Ohtani of college baseball – 2-way star Jac Caglianone – in with Super Regional newbies like West Virginia, UConn and Kansas State?
Florida is battle-tested, motivated by the criticism it’s received and is capable of scoring runs in bunches, a factor that could be a problem for Clemson’s streaky offense. The Gators enter the Super Regional with 125 home runs, No. 6 nationally and 4th among the 16 teams in the Supers. All things considered, the Tigers might have been happier seeing No. 11 national seed Oklahoma State coming to Doug Kingsmore Stadium than a hungry bunch of Gators who know what it takes to get to Omaha.
That postseason experience can’t be overestimated. It’s the reason the 8-team CWS field seems to have so many of the same teams every year.
Among those usual suspects is Virginia.
The Cavaliers have been to Omaha 6 times since 2009, including 2 of the past 3 years. They’re 1 of only 2 ACC teams to win a national championship, topping Vanderbilt for the title in 2015. And they got a huge break when No. 5 national seed Arkansas was upset in its regional, allowing them to stay home in Charlottesville for the Super Regional.
Their matchup against Kansas State appears to be as lopsided – at least on paper – as the seedings suggest.
UVa has 9 players in its order hitting .300 or better and rank among the top 12 nationally in batting average, runs per game and homers (114). The Wildcats, by contrast, are hitting just .273 as a team with only 66 home runs — by far the fewest of anybody still playing.
Super Regional teams are on a serious power trip as they try to slug their way to Omaha and the CWS … pic.twitter.com/d79DD9nWhN
— Saturday Down South (@SatDownSouth) June 6, 2024
Florida State’s matchup against UConn, the No. 3 seed in the Oklahoma Regional, appears to be just as slanted in the Seminoles’ favor. But the Huskies have a deep pitching staff that got the better of both top-seed Oklahoma and ACC Tournament champion Duke to get this far.
Even though anything is possible, there promises to be a crowd of ACC teams traveling on the road to Omaha by the end of the weekend.
They might want to go ahead and order that big bus.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
