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Here’s what’s at stake for the final regular-season weekend of SEC baseball
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The SEC baseball regular season will come to an end this weekend with one final series for all 14 teams.
There’s still plenty to be decided. The No. 1 seed, both division crowns, first-round byes and the final SEC Tournament berths are all still up for grabs entering the weekend.
Each series runs Thursday-Saturday: Here’s a quick look at the series schedule:
- Florida at Georgia
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky
- South Carolina at Tennessee
- Alabama at Auburn
- Ole Miss at LSU
- Missouri at Mississippi State
- Arkansas at Texas A&M
Here’s a look at what’s at stake at all levels of the conference:
The race for the No. 1 seed
Kentucky is in the driver’s seat to earn the No. 1 seed in this year’s SEC Tournament. The Wildcats are 20-7 this season in league play, a full game better than Tennessee and Arkansas (19-8).
UK is also facing a lackluster Vanderbilt team at home during the final weekend. The Commodores are just 12-15 in SEC play this year and have lost 3 straight series against SEC opponents. If Kentucky sweeps Vanderbilt, it will secure the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament.
However, if UK were to drop a game or 2 to Vanderbilt, things could get a lot more complicated. That could lead to a 3-way tie for the top spot between Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas. Here’s a look at the SEC’s tiebreaker procedures for a 3-way tie:
A. If all three teams are common opponents: Total won-lost percentage of games played among the tied teams.
B. Won-lost percentage of the tied teams versus the No. 1 seed and proceeding through the No. 12 seed, if necessary, using common opponents only.
C. If three or more teams still are tied, the Commissioner will conduct a draw.
Tiebreaker A doesn’t apply here, because Arkansas and Tennessee did not play during the regular season. With 3 teams tied at the top, presumably tiebreaker B would pick up with the 4th-place team in the SEC — which could be any of Texas A&M, Georgia or Mississippi State depending on the results of the final weekend. However, none of those teams faced all 3 of Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas during the regular season.
South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn are the only programs that have faced (or will face) all 3 of those potentially-tied teams this season. South Carolina has the best record of that group, although that would potentially change if the Gamecocks were to get swept by Tennessee this weekend.
A 2-team tiebreaker would be much simpler to sort out. Kentucky holds the tiebreaker over Arkansas, but the Vols have it over UK. If Arkansas and Tennessee end up tied for the No. 1 seed, it would come down to their performance against the No. 3 seed (likely Kentucky). In that case, the Vols would get the nod.
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The race for division titles
As noted, Kentucky enters the final weekend with a 1-game edge over Tennessee in the SEC East standings. However, Tennessee holds the tiebreaker over the Wildcats thanks to its series win in Lexington earlier this season.
The race for the SEC West crown is even simpler. Arkansas holds a 2-game lead over Texas A&M. As luck would have it, the Razorbacks and Aggies play in College Station this weekend. Texas A&M would need a sweep over Arkansas to secure the division title. The Razorbacks need just 1 win to repeat as SEC West champs.
Both division winners are guaranteed top-2 seeds in the SEC baseball tournament, which runs May 21-26 in Hoover, Alabama.
The race for a first-round bye
Four teams will receive a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament. That bye is crucial, as the first round in Hoover will be played under a single-elimination format before going to a double-elimination model in the second round (until the semifinals).
Entering the weekend, 4 teams are in good position to earn a bye: Kentucky and Tennessee out of the East and Arkansas and Texas A&M out of the West.
Georgia (16-11) and Mississippi State (15-12) could get into the mix depending on how Texas A&M performs this weekend. The Aggies (17-11) took 2-of-3 from Georgia and Mississippi State this season, so they’re in good shape from a tiebreaker perspective if it comes down to that.
Florida’s unusual predicament
Perhaps no SEC team has more on the line this weekend than the Gators, who will be facing a tough Georgia team in Athens. Florida enters this weekend with a 26-25 record, leaving the Gators potentially ineligible for an at-large bid depending on how the rest of the season unfolds. Teams must have a record above .500 (including the SEC Tournament) in order to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Despite the lackluster record, Florida is certainly in play for a NCAA Tournament berth if it’s able to finish the year with a record above .500. The Gators are currently 29th nationally in RPI and were one of the last 4 teams included in the field in Baseball America’s latest field of 64 projection.
Florida might need at least 2 wins over Georgia this weekend in order to feel good about its chances of finishing above .500. Going 1-2 (or worse) against the Bulldogs would likely mean Florida needs a deep SEC Tournament run in order to secure a spot in the field of 64.
Florida has lost 6 SEC series in a row entering this weekend.
The race for the final spots
Only 12 of the SEC’s 14 teams will make it to Hoover, which means a couple of programs will be playing their last game of the year this weekend.
Two teams won’t make the field. One is known: Auburn. The Tigers are just 6-21 in SEC play this season and have already been eliminated from the postseason.
Only 4 other teams — Ole Miss (11-16), Florida (11-16), LSU (10-17) and Mizzou (8-19) — haven’t clinched a spot. One of those teams also will be eliminated this weekend.
Missouri is next on the chopping block at 8-19, but it still has an opportunity to make it to the SEC Tournament if it can sweep Mississippi State in Starkville and get help elsewhere. That would put the Tigers at 11-19 on the year.
LSU is next up at 10-17 in SEC play. LSU has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Missouri, which means Mizzou must sweep Mississippi State in order to have a chance to get past LSU and into the SEC Tournament (either outright or via a 3-team tiebreaker). Ole Miss and Florida are 11-16 in SEC play entering this weekend and could wind up in a complicated multi-team tiebreaker scenario if they were to get swept this weekend.
To simply things, based on the SEC’s tiebreaking procedures:
— If Missouri, LSU and Florida all finish 11-19, Missouri and LSU would advance to the SEC Tournament and Florida’s season would be over.
— If Missouri, Florida and Ole Miss all finish 11-19, Missouri and Florida would advance and Ole Miss’ season would be over.
(LSU plays Ole Miss, so only 1 of those teams could potentially finish 11-19 and in any 3-way tie.)
All 7 SEC series will conclude on Saturday barring any schedule adjustments due to weather.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
