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MLB Draft best bets: Prop picks for Jac Caglianone, Hagen Smith and more
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The 2024 MLB Draft will take place this weekend, with several of the college game’s top stars expected to be picked in the first round.
Georgia’s Charlie Condon, Florida’s Jac Caglianone, Texas A&M’s Braden Montgomery and Arkansas’ Hagen Smith are amongst those expected to be picked in the top 10 on Sunday night.
Several sports betting apps have released props for numerous projected first-round picks. There are also odds available for the No. 1 overall pick race — with Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and West Virginia’s JJ Wetherholt leading the way there.
Here are 5 bets for the 2024 MLB Draft:
JJ Wetherholt to be the No. 1 overall pick (+200 on FanDuel)
The consensus seems to be split between Wetherholt and Bazzana. Wetherholt is an underdog here, as Bazzana is widely viewed as the better prospect. But over and over again, we’ve seen teams in the top-5 go bargain-hunting in that range. Most recently, the Pittsburgh Pirates did this in the 2021 draft when they took catcher Henry Davis with the top pick.
Wetherholt is an elite prospect in this class, but he’s likely to fall out of the top 5 if he doesn’t go No. 1 overall. That could make his camp be more willing to accept an under-slot bonus. Cleveland also has 2 other picks in the top 50, so any money it saves at No. 1 overall could go toward swaying a high-potential high school prospect to accept their offer rather than opt for the college route.
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Jac Caglianone to be picked ahead of Charlie Condon (+230 on DraftKings)
Charlie Condon has long been the favorite to go No. 2 overall to Cincinnati, as many draft analysts and scouts have him as the top prospect in this class. However, the Reds’ pick seems to be somewhat uncertain with just a couple of days to go before the draft.
In ESPN’s latest MLB mock draft, analyst Kiley McDaniel projected Caglianone to the Reds. McDaniel reports that Caglianone and Wake Forest ace Chase Burns are now the “leading options” to go in this spot.
Over at FanDuel, you can bet Caglianone at +650 to be the No. 2 overall pick.
Chase Burns over pick 3.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
Burns has been viewed as a strong possibility to be picked at No. 3 overall to the Colorado Rockies throughout this process, but it’s far from a guarantee. McDaniel’s latest mock draft update has Burns falling all the way to No. 6 overall to Kansas City. Perhaps more importantly, his intel suggests that Colorado would only take Burns at No. 3 if both Condon and Caglianone are both off the board when they pick. That scenario seems exceptionally unlikely at this point, given that Wetherholt and Bazzana are the runaway favorites at No. 1 overall.
Colorado has frequently selected starting pitchers in the first round, including Chase Dollander as recently as last year. But getting a double-plus power bat in Condon or Caglianone would make a lot of sense in the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field — and is not an opportunity the Rockies have very often.
Hagen Smith under pick 6.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
The case for Hagen Smith is pretty simple: He absolutely dominated the SEC this season in a year where hitters were unstoppable against almost anyone else. Smith posted a 2.04 ERA in 84 innings of work this year while striking out a whopping 161 batters. That equates to more than 17 strikeouts per 9 innings. That’s elite at any level of competitive baseball, let alone a league as strong as the SEC.
The Kansas City Royals at No. 6 have been repeatedly linked to Smith. In Jim Callis’ latest mock draft for MLB Pipeline, he notes that “everyone knows” the Royals are interested in Smith and high school shortstop Bryce Rainer. Kansas City has taken a left-handed pitcher 3 times in the last 6 drafts, so this pick would fit its track record.
Also over at DraftKings, you can get Smith +160 to be picked before Chase Burns. Burns’ range starts earlier (at No. 3 overall), but if the Rockies don’t take him, there are realistic scenarios where he goes after Smith.
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GET THE APPKonnor Griffin under pick 9.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Along with Bryce Rainer, Konnor Griffin is considered to be one of the elite high school prospects in this class. This class is college-heavy at the top, but someone in the top 9 will presumably be willing to take an upside swing on Griffin.
A Mississippi native, Griffin is known for his plus power and double-plus speed. He also has the athleticism and defensive profile to stick at shortstop, which makes him even more valuable to a team who is looking for upside at the top of this class. The Athletic, ESPN and MLB Pipeline all mentioned Griffin as a possibility at No. 5 overall to the White Sox in their respective mock draft updates.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
