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It’s a bad time to root against SEC baseball.
If that’s your deal, you probably didn’t like that the selection committee put a record 11 SEC teams into the NCAA Tournament, including a Florida team that was 1 game above .500. You also probably didn’t like the way that things have played out during the 2020s, wherein all the national titles have been awarded to SEC squads. The last time that a non-SEC team won it all was 2018, when Oregon State beat … Arkansas.
But let’s be honest. If you’re here, you’re probably not rooting against SEC baseball. Smart.
You came here for questions, not answers. No, really.
I have 1 question about all 11 SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament:
Alabama — Will a rough few weeks lead to an early exit?
When May started, Alabama had hope of continuing its impressive 2024 campaign by hosting the postseason in Tuscaloosa. Then a 5-6 run to end the regular season, including a 1-and-done showing in the SEC Tournament, changed that. As a result, a trip to the Florida State Regional will make it a tricky road if the Tide wants to reach the College World Series for the first time in the 21st century. Rob Vaughn’s first season in Tuscaloosa has been a success, but it’d be a frustrating end if it didn’t at least include a trip to the Super Regional.
Arkansas — Is this finally Dave Van Horn’s time?
Copy and paste that question in any given year, I suppose. In Year 22, it still applies. The Arkansas skipper’s team has the best ERA in America, yet 3 consecutive losses entering the NCAA Tournament isn’t ideal. Now, the question is whether the Hogs can avoid the same fate as last year when they failed to get out of their Regional after suffering a pair of blowout losses to TCU. On the bright side, at least Arkansas doesn’t have to deal with the added pressure of being the No. 1 overall seed as it had in 2021 (more on that later).
Florida — Will that No. 1 strength of schedule pay off?
If the Gators don’t win a game in the NCAA Tournament, many will shout that they shouldn’t have been selected after finishing just 1 game above .500. Plenty of folks would like to see the defending national runners-up get bounced in the Oklahoma State Regional. Alternatively, Florida would be playing with house money if it navigated through that and reached a Super Regional. Facing Jac Caglianone in an all-or-nothing scenario would be daunting for the winner of the Clemson Regional.
Georgia — Can Charlie Condon continue to put on his cape?
Sure, Georgia’s rise wasn’t just the work of Condon. UGA ranks No. 1 in the field and No. 2 in America with 2.59 home runs per game, and Georgia’s pitching staff excelled at getting whiffs with the nation’s No. 8 strikeouts-per-9 innings rate. But if UGA is going to make a run to Omaha for the first time in 16 years, it’ll be because Condon hit like his All-American self and he set the table for the rest of the lineup. He leads the country in average (.443) and home runs (35). UGA has a special talent in Condon, who is in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick in this summer’s MLB Draft. Anything short of a run to Omaha would feel like a disappointment.
Kentucky — Is history on the horizon?
UK technically already made history by earning a program record 22 SEC wins and consecutive NCAA Tournament berths for the first time. But more pressing for the Wildcats is that they never made it to Omaha. Now, they have a juggernaut squad that appears poised to change that with the No. 3 overall seed. SEC Coach of the Year Nick Mingione ran into a buzzsaw against LSU in last year’s Super Regional. This year, there’s not an SEC team standing in the way of UK’s path to history.
LSU — Are the defending champs the scariest team in the field?
I believe so. Watching the Tigers figure things out in May should be a scary sight. It’s not just that teams have to deal with Tommy White. It’s an LSU lineup, which got a shot of life from Michael Braswell’s move to the leadoff spot, that averaged 11 runs in its first 4 SEC Tournament games. Plus, an established 1-2 punch on the mound from Gage Jump and Luke Holman could prove to be the best asset for LSU’s title defense. Even without a Regional host, the Tigers have the makings of a “never say die” headache in a double-elimination format.
Mississippi State — Will the host snub fuel a run to Omaha?
There was hope that a bounce-back season in Starkville would be rewarded with a Regional host in front of the largest crowd in college baseball. For one reason or another — some bad losses didn’t help — that didn’t happen. So now, could that fuel the Bulldogs in their first NCAA Tournament since they won it all in 2021? It’s possible. One would think that path would include Virginia, which can light up the scoreboard. The Bulldogs could use some of that elite starting pitching, especially if the bats continue to be held in check.
South Carolina — Can the Gamecocks piece together some top-notch pitching?
An ERA over 5.00 isn’t ideal for a deep NCAA Tournament run, and neither is shaky defense, which doomed the Gamecocks in Hoover. But this isn’t a team with a true starting rotation. It’s an untraditional approach, though it helped South Carolina reach the NCAA Tournament in consecutive years for the first time since the early-2010s glory days. Can that keep teams off balance en route to a deep run? Or will that fluid cycle backfire like it did late in the season vs. SEC competition? That could determine whether South Carolina can escape the NC State Regional and set up a potential all-SEC Super Regional at Georgia.
Tennessee — Will the dreaded No. 1 overall seed curse resurface?
You know the stat. Tennessee is trying to become the first No. 1 overall seed to win a national title since 1999 Miami, which won it all in the first year of the expanded NCAA Tournament format. It speaks to the random nature of the sport. Tennessee knows that all too well after it didn’t even reach Omaha as the No. 1 overall seed in 2022. Tony Vitello’s squad has never turned away from the spotlight. All eyes will be on the Vols … especially if Chase Burns and Wake Forest await in the Super Regional.
Texas A&M — Will the Aggies live and die by their long-ball ways?
A&M’s loaded lineup ranks No. 5 in the nation in home runs with a trio of 20 home-run hitters, led by Jace LaViolette with 28 (2nd-most in program history). Whoever stands in A&M’s way will have to navigate that potential landmine. A&M was the No. 1 team in America, but then it went 5-7 down the stretch with a 2-and-out showing in Hoover. The good news for A&M is that it’ll open against a Grambling State squad that doesn’t have a win against a Division I/non-HBCU squad. Oh, and I suppose the other good news is that the road to Omaha goes through Blue Bell Park, where the Aggies went 32-3 in the regular season.
Vanderbilt — Will a healthy pitching staff end the Omaha “drought?”
Yeah, at a place like Vandy, consecutive seasons without a trip to Omaha is indeed a drought. Three Omaha-less seasons is an eternity. Avoiding that will come down to whether Vandy’s healthy staff can put it together. This feels significant:
Vanderbilt didn’t play a single SEC weekend series this season with all three of JD Thompson, Devin Futrell and Ethan McElvain available. The SEC tournament was the first time all three of them have been healthy at the same time since pre-conference play
— Aria Gerson (@aria_gerson) May 26, 2024
In the SEC Tournament, Tim Corbin’s squad only allowed an average of 4 runs and lost once in the SEC Tournament. That was a 6-4 defeat to No. 1 overall seed Tennessee in the single-elimination semifinals. Mind you, that was after Vandy clubbed Tennessee 13-4 in the Vols’ first game in Hoover. Omaha drought or not, the Vandy Boys showed that they can play with anyone. A fully available set of arms could be the X-factor.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
