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O’Gara: Ranking each SEC team’s chances of winning the College World Series
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Omaha!
Sorry. Had to get one in. I realize that joke is about a decade old. I actually lived in Nebraska when that first became a thing, so it feels even older to me whenever that gets used to reference the College World Series.
But you know what? Peyton Manning had good reason to shout “Omaha.” Getting to this point is a benchmark among the best in sports. Even in the SEC, where Omaha is the standard for the majority of its programs, reaching this point of the NCAA Tournament is special.
It has the makings of a particularly special College World Series for the SEC, who tied the record with 4 teams in the field (Kentucky, Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee). Of course, the ACC matched that with 4 teams of its own. The question isn’t just who’ll win the SEC-ACC challenge; it’s who’ll win the whole thing and be the last team standing.
I ranked the SEC teams in order of the least likely to most likely to win it all:
4. Kentucky
I have nothing but respect for Nick Mingione’s program. The job he did to lead UK to Omaha for the first time in program history should be celebrated. That’s no small feat, and to do so by sweeping both the Regional and the Super Regional is a testament to just how impressive this 2024 Kentucky team is.
Having said that, do we believe a team making its first-ever trip to Omaha will win it all? It’s been done before. Coastal Carolina pulled off that feat in 2016, but that’s the only instance since the format expanded in 1999. In a field that’s loaded with 7 teams who hosted Regionals — one of them being UK — it’s a star-studded group that awaits.
Of course, UK got to this point with a mix of quality starting pitching, timely hitting and some opportunistic moves on the basepaths. All of those things will play at Charles Schwab Field.
Related: Looking to stay on top of all the College World Series action? SDS has you covered with its CWS homepage!
3. Florida
At this point, nobody should be shocked if Florida just pulls a 2022 Ole Miss and wins the whole thing. The way that the Gators responded going back to the final regular season series against Georgia should have everyone on high alert. The meat of the order — not just Jac Caglianone — has been on a tear and the pitching has been good enough to find a way. Kevin O’Sullivan has been pushing all the right buttons, which isn’t something that’s often said about a coach with 28 losses entering Omaha.
If there’s a lingering question, it’s about the pitching depth. Brandon Neely has been an indispensable machine in the postseason. One would think he’ll need more help from a young pitching staff if Florida wants to avenge last year’s CWS final loss.
Florida is the only non-Regional host who reached Omaha. It’s strange to say the Gators are the underdogs with last year’s runner-up finish and the biggest star in the sport in Caglianone. But hey, maybe that mindset was exactly what was needed to let the Gators get hot.
2. Texas A&M
If not for the Aggies starting off with Florida, AKA the ultimate Omaha wild card, I’d be tempted to have the Aggies at No. 1. Getting around Florida in that first game and staying in the winner’s bracket will be huge for the Aggies. Take it for what it is, but the Gators took 2 of 3 from them in Gainesville to kick off SEC play. A&M is only 12-10 away from the friendly confines of Blue Bell Park, where they won all 5 games of the NCAA Tournament. Plus, the season-ending injury to Braden Montgomery couldn’t have come at a worse time.
But you could argue that their style of play is perfect for Charles Schwab Field. They rank No. 6 in Division I in ERA, they hit for power but aren’t as home-run reliant as Tennessee and they field exceptionally well. They’ve also got a coach in Jim Schlossnagle who is making his 7th CWS appearance.
A&M is the type of battle-tested, never-say-die team that can emerge from the SEC and win it all.
1. Tennessee
I know, I know. The No. 1 national seed hasn’t won it all since 1999 Miami (FL). Everyone is aware of the history that the Vols are facing. Shoot, they’re facing even more history than that as a program that has never won the College World Series. There’ll be reminders of that at every turn for Tony Vitello’s squad, whether it wants to hear it or not. Tennessee earned that kind of conversation by sweeping the SEC regular season (the SEC said it was a shared title) and conference tournament.
But man, if there was ever a favorite that could break through and get it done, it’s Tennessee. The Vols have been all about embracing that target by being aggressive at the plate (9.2 runs/game) and attacking hitters (10.1 strikeouts/9 innings). That target will carry into Omaha, where Vitello has just 1 victory and an average of 2.6 runs scored in 5 games. He does, however, have the best team in the sport.
While much of the discussion has been on the Vols’ chase of 1997 LSU’s record for home runs in a season, they produced the No. 3 ERA in America. Doing so with the majority of their games at a hitter-friendly ballpark like Lindsey Nelson Stadium speaks to how good that staff has been. That’s the key for the Vols in Omaha.
Now is as good a time as ever to end a couple of droughts.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
