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SEC baseball: 9 teams projected to make NCAA Tournament, 6 potential hosts
By Andrew Olson
Published:
The 2024 college baseball regular season is coming to a close. We’ve got one last weekend slate of Thursday-Saturday games in the SEC before the top 12 teams in the conference will head to Hoover.
Like in basketball, the winner of the SEC Tournament will get an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. The SEC will also be well-represented with at-large bids.
To get an at-large bid, a team cannot finish with a losing record. Conference wins are also important. It’s extremely rare for a 12-win SEC team to make the NCAA Tournament. A 13-win SEC team has a shot at making the field of 64, but isn’t guaranteed.
Ahead of the final regular-season weekend, D1Baseball and Baseball America shared their latest NCAA Tournament projections.
Kentucky: 37-11 overall (20-7 SEC)
Kentucky is atop the SEC standings. With a 20-7 mark through 9 series, the Bat Cats have a 1-game conference lead over Tennessee and Arkansas. Texas A&M is 3 games back at 17-10.
The SEC regular-season crown will factor into the seeding picture. Heading into a 3-game home series with Vanderbilt, both D1Baseball and Baseball America have UK in the top overall seed, pairing the Lexington Regional with Stillwater (D1) and Santa Barbara (BA).
D1 Baseball: No. 1 national seed, Regional host
Baseball America: No. 1 national seed, Regional host
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Tennessee: 43-10 (19-8)
The Vols have been one of the conference’s top teams all season, and could come away with an SEC title, depending on how things shake out elsewhere.
Entering the final series with South Carolina, UT is a projected national seed. For potential Super Regionals, Knoxville is paired with Charlottesville by both publications.
D1: No. 2 national seed, Regional host
BA: No. 3 national seed, Regional host
Arkansas: 42-10 (19-8)
After losing the series at Kentucky, and falling behind in the SEC title race, the Razorbacks bounced back with a home series win over Mississippi State.
The Hogs wrap up with Texas A&M, the club that’s two games behind in the SEC West. Both teams are projected national seeds, with publications differing on the order. Projections have the Fayetteville Regional paired with Starkville (D1) and Terre Haute (BA).
D1: No. 3 national seed, Regional host
BA: No. 5 national seed, Regional host
Texas A&M: 42-10 (17-10)
The Aggies stumbled on the road at Ole Miss and would need a chaotic weekend for a piece of the SEC title crown. Still, Texas A&M is a solid national seed as a member of the 40-win club before the Arkansas series.
Projections pair the College Station Regional with the Corvallis Regional, hosted by Oregon State.
D1: No. 4 national seed, Regional host
BA: No. 4 national seed, Regional host
Georgia: 38-12 (16-11)
It wasn’t too long ago that Georgia was projected to be on the road in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs have gotten hot, and their stock is surging.
The projections differ on just how high UGA will be seeded. D1Baseball has Georgia in the top 8, potentially hosting the Norman Regional winner in a Super Regional. Baseball America still has the Dawgs outside the top 8, paired with the Tallahassee Regional.
D1: No. 7 national seed, Regional host
BA: No. 10 national seed, Regional host
Mississippi State: 34-18 (15-12)
Georgia isn’t the only Bulldog team with differing projections. Mississippi State is out of the regular-season SEC title race, but the Diamond Dawgs have plenty to play for against Missouri over the next 3 games.
D1Baseball has MSU as a national seed hosting an NCAA Regional, potentially traveling to Fayetteville for a Super Regional. Baseball America, on the other hand, has Mississippi State outside of the 16 national seeds.
D1: No. 14 national seed, Regional host
BA: Stillwater Regional 2-seed (hosted by No. 15 Oklahoma State)
South Carolina: 33-18 (13-14)
The Gamecocks were projected to host an NCAA Regional not long ago, but their stock is down after being swept at home.
South Carolina has 13 SEC wins and the No. 19 RPI, making it a likely NCAA Tournament team with the chance to improve its stock against Tennessee and in the SEC Tournament.
D1: Clemson Regional 2-seed (hosted by No. 6 Clemson)
BA: Santa Barbara Regional 3-seed (hosted by No. 16 UC Santa Barbara)
Vanderbilt: 34-18 (12-15)
The Vandy Boys are used to competing for SEC titles. This year hasn’t gone as planned, and the current focus is on picking up a 13th conference win against Kentucky.
Vanderbilt looks to be playing away from home for the rest of the 2024 campaign.
D1: Winston-Salem Regional 3-seed (hosted by No. 8 Wake Forest)
BA: Charlottesville Regional 3-seed (hosted by No. 14 Virginia)
Alabama: 32-19 (12-15)
UA lacks a 13th SEC win, but it draws Auburn, the SEC team with the worst record, for the final series. With the No. 11 RPI, Alabama is on track to make the NCAA Tournament.
Projections have the Crimson Tide hitting the road the rest of the way.
D1: Chapel Hill Regional 2-seed (hosted by No. 5 North Carolina)
BA: Tallahassee Regional 2-seed (hosted by No. 7 Florida State)
Bubble Watch: LSU-Ole Miss battle it out; Florida on the outside looking in
Three more SEC teams are playing for potential NCAA Tournament bids, but have work to do. Two of them will face each other, as LSU hosts Ole Miss.
The Tigers are 33-20 overall and have the No. 35 RPI. But with just 10 SEC wins, they likely need a sweep to make the field of 64 as an at-large team.
Ole Miss is 1 game ahead in the SEC standing at 11-16. The Rebels are 27-25 overall but have the No. 24 RPI. Win the series, and Mike Bianco’s squad could be an NCAA Tournament team.
D1Baseball names Ole Miss one of the First Four Out heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Baseball America projects the Rebels in the Next Four Out at No. 70 overall.
Florida is missing from the D1 and BA projections after weeks of being included in the field of 64. The Gators are No. 30 in RPI at 26-25 overall and 11 SEC wins. UF needs to find a way to win 2-of-3 against red-hot Georgia, or it will suffer its first NCAA Tournament miss under Kevin O’Sullivan.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
