1 nightmare matchup for every top SEC basketball team in March Madness

The 2024-25 college basketball season is inching closer and closer to March Madness.

While the SEC could break the record for the most bids from a single league in this year’s Big Dance, the NCAA Tournament is always unpredictable. This story will attempt to identify a ‘nightmare matchup’ for each of the SEC’s 9 teams who are currently projected to received at least a top-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The nightmare scenario will not be an equal comparison for every team. For example, there’s likely no obvious bad matchup that Auburn could draw before the Sweet 16 — or perhaps even the Final Four. But for teams like Texas A&M and Tennessee? The danger could start early. Ole Miss and Mississippi State should be on the lookout starting in Round 1.

Matchups identified will also ignore teams who are clearly better than the program in question — you don’t need this story to tell you that Tennessee drawing Duke would not be ideal for the Vols, for example.

Without further ado, here’s a nightmare matchup in the NCAA Tournament for all the top SEC teams:

Alabama

Projected seed: 2

Nightmare matchup: Saint Mary’s

For Alabama, I went searching for a profile that mirrors the last team to knock off Nate Oats’ bunch before the Final Four: San Diego State in 2023. That Aztecs team, which made it all the way to the title game, was elite in a couple of key areas. They were top-5 in both adjusted defensive efficiency and 3-point defense, per KenPom. Crucially, that San Diego State team was also outside of the top-250 nationally tempo. The Aztecs were able to play a plodding game to contrast Alabama’s 16-seconds-or-less style. 

The standout candidate: Saint Mary’s. The Gaels have power-conference wins over Nebraska, USC and Utah on their résumé this season. They’ve also beaten Gonzaga twice already. They rank 8th in schedule-adjusted defense and are 358th in tempo. Saint Mary’s could easily end up as a 2nd-round matchup for the Crimson Tide — and it would be a tricky one. 

Auburn

Projected seed: 1

Nightmare matchup: BYU

It’s going to be extremely difficult for Auburn to be upset by a lesser team in the NCAA Tournament. Perhaps a team like Houston or Duke could have a great game and catch Auburn on a bad night and pull off a win. To be clear, I think that’s the most-likely outcome for Auburn should it lose at all in March Madness. 

But if we’re hunting for upset potential, I’m looking for teams who take and allow a high volume of 3-point attempts. Injecting more deep shots into the game will increase the number of possible outcomes, which is a bad thing for Auburn — particularly in the early rounds. That’s how I landed on BYU. The Cougars, particularly since Jan. 1, have taken a ton of 3-pointers and allowed plenty of 3-point attempts on the other end. BYU also has the nation’s No. 7 most-efficient offense over that span (adjusted for opponent), per BartTorvik. Wins over Baylor, Kansas and Arizona prove that BYU can play with a certain level of competition. On its absolute best day, maybe that level includes Auburn. 

Florida

Projected seed: 1

Nightmare matchup: Marquette

While Houston, Duke and Auburn capture most of the headlines, Florida is in some rare air as well. The Gators are 1 of 3 teams in the country this season who rank top-8 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. If that holds, it would be rather historic. Over the past 4 seasons, there have only been 3 teams total to accomplish that feat (pre-tournament): 2021 Illinois, 2021 Michigan and 2022 Gonzaga. 

The Illini were ousted in the Round of 32 by Cameron Krutwig and Loyola Chicago. Michigan made it all the way to the Elite Eight before losing to UCLA in a forgettable 51-49 affair. Finally, a Chet Holmgren-led Gonzaga team lost to Arkansas in the Sweet 16. A common through-line between all 3 of those teams is that they were rotten at forcing turnovers (all outside the top-290 in that category). Florida isn’t quite that bad at forcing turnovers, but it’s not really a strength, either. 

With that blueprint in mind, I’ll single out Marquette as a team that Florida should want to avoid.  The Golden Eagles are a possible Sweet 16 matchup for Florida. They never turn it over (6th in offensive turnover rate) and are top-35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency for the full season. They also take a high-percentage of their overall attempts from 3-point range, which is another part of the profile we’re looking for in this exercise. 

Kentucky

Projected seed: 3

Nightmare matchup: UC San Diego

For Kentucky, I went looking for a team that defends the 3-point line well and doesn’t turn the ball over offensively. That profile attacks Kentucky’s biggest strength on offense (perimeter shooting) and underscores the Wildcats’ biggest weakness on defense (forcing turnovers). The latter is particularly a problem as UK ranks near the bottom of the country in havoc. The Wildcats even had a game earlier this season where they only managed to force 1 turnover against Ole Miss. 

Forcing turnovers in March is extremely important, historically. Not doing so can lead to first-round upsets. Since 2009, there have been 74 teams seeded 3 through 5 who have lost the turnover battle in their 1st-round matchup. That seed range is where UK is most likely to end up, according to BartTorvik’s latest projections. Of those 74 teams, just 52 went on to win. That may seem like a decent percentage (70%). But it’s notably-lower than the overall 1st-round win rate for those seeds (76%) over that same span. 

The team in the potential seed range to face Kentucky in the 1st-round to be wary of is UC San Diego. The Tritons are 10th nationally in offensive turnover rate and 1st nationally in turnover margin per game (+7.2). They could very well end up as a No. 13 or No. 14 seed despite being ranked 35th nationally, per KenPom. For context, that’s ahead of SEC teams like Arkansas, Georgia, Texas and Oklahoma who are all on the at-large bubble. If UC San Diego makes the big dance, they’ll likely be under-seeded and a big stylistic issue for Kentucky to solve. 

Mississippi State

Projected seed: 7

Nightmare matchup: Gonzaga

Mississippi State has sort of been its own worst enemy so far this season. The Bulldogs have shot just 28.6% from 3-point range this year in SEC play, and yet they continue to take a high volume of attempts from long range. However, the Bulldogs have survived that math problem because they’re very good from 2-point range (north of 55%) and they get a lot of steals (14th in steal rate). 

Gonzaga fits the bill as a team who would be a troublesome matchup for Mississippi State in the 1st round. Despite being top-15 in the nation in some of the predictive metrics like KenPom and BartTorvik, Gonzaga is likely to be closer to a 10-seed due to its lackluster résumé — if it makes the Big Dance at all. Gonzaga is top-10 in the country in offensive turnover rate and certainly has the 3-point shooters to win that battle against Mississippi State. 

Mizzou

Projected seed: 5

Nightmare matchup: McNeese State

I’m on the record as believing this Mizzou team has all the ingredients of a Final Four contender. But if the Tigers run into McNeese State in the 1st weekend of the NCAA Tournament, it could spell trouble for Dennis Gates’ team. And while things can certainly change, that’s the exact 1st-round matchup that ESPN’s Joe Lunardi predicted earlier this week in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 game. 

McNeese would be an extremely unfortunate matchup for the Tigers. Will Wade has the Cowboys playing like a top-60 team this season. McNeese’s schedule-adjusted defensive rating is 63rd nationally, per KenPom. That’s remarkable considering the Cowboys play in the Southland conference. The last time a team from that league had a top-60 schedule adjusted defense on KenPom was Abilene Christian back in 2021. That Abilene team was a No. 14 seed and ended up ending the Shaka Smart era at Texas with a massive 1st-round upset over the Longhorns. 

Ole Miss

Projected seed: 6

Nightmare matchup: Drake

Ole Miss has 2 pretty significant weaknesses on defense. The Rebels foul a lot (325th in opponent free throw rate) and they concede a ton of 3-point shots (306th in defensive 3-point attempt rate). If Ole Miss runs into an offense that gets to the charity stripe and makes 3-pointers at a high rate, it could spell trouble for the Rebels early on in the NCAA Tournament. 

Given Ole Miss’s projected seed, we’re looking for someone who fits that criteria who could be a 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Drake fits the bill. The Bulldogs are 26-3 this season and already have wins over teams like Vanderbilt and Kansas State. They’re 13th nationally in free throw attempt rate and are top-70 nationally in 3-point efficiency and attempt rate. That’s the kind of profile that Ole Miss does not want to see in Round 1.  

Tennessee

Projected seed: 2

Nightmare matchup: Michigan State

Rick Barnes teams at Tennessee often have similar statistical profiles: Elite defense with a slow, methodical offense that can run dry at times. The 2024 team with Dalton Knecht broke that mold, but it appears to be back in 2025 — albeit with an offense that’s more consistent than usual. Looking at some of Tennessee’s previous NCAA Tournament exits, a pattern starts to emerge. 

Excluding 2024, 3-point shooting has consistently failed the Vols in March. In 2021, they shot 5-of-26 in an upset loss to Oregon State. In 2022 they shot 2-of-18 in 2nd-round upset loss to Michigan. In 2023, they shot a slightly-better 6-of-23 from long range in a defeat to Cinderella-story Florida Atlantic. Three losses where Tennessee shot a combined 19% from 3-point range. 

Could that happen again? If Chaz Lanier has a bad night, absolutely. He’s Tennessee’s only efficient 3-point shooter on any real volume of attempts this season. With this in mind, I don’t think the Vols would be happy to see Michigan State. The Spartans are 4th in 3-point percentage defense in the entire country this season. Michigan State doesn’t shoot it well from 3-point range either, but Tom Izzo’s team gets its points in other areas. They get fouled a lot and they’re elite on the glass on both offense and defense. These teams almost certainly wouldn’t meet until the 2nd weekend, but this could be a problem for the Vols’ Final Four hopes if they end up in the same region. 

Texas A&M

Projected seed: 2

Nightmare matchup: Creighton

This Texas A&M team is quite easy to figure out on paper (actually beating them is another matter entirely). The Aggies are solid defensively but struggle on offense outside of 1 key area: offensive rebounding. A&M rebounds almost 42% of its misses, good for No. 1 nationally by a good margin. This has been the Buzz Williams blueprint for the last 3 years, although this is clearly the best team he’s had in College Station. A&M could be as high as a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance this year. 

Even in A&M’s recent NCAA Tournament losses to Penn State and Houston, the Aggies still got after it on the offensive glass. That’s not why they lost. They lost those games because their defense failed them. Houston shot over 72% from 2-point range in an overtime classic last March. Penn State made almost 60% of its 3-point attempts in a memorable 1st-round upset in 2023. 

Who could Texas A&M run into in the 1st weekend that could pose similar problems? Creighton is certainly an option. The Blue Jays are top-30 nationally in opponent field goal percentage. Their defense is even stronger, ranking in the top-15 in that category. They have high-level wins over Kansas, St. John’s, UConn, Marquette and more. Creighton is also No. 1 in the country in defensive foul rate, so the Aggies wouldn’t be able to count on many freebies at the foul line. Creighton would be a very live underdog in a hypothetical No. 2 vs. No. 7 match in Round 2. 

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.