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If the SEC goes 0-for-14 with getting a team to the Sweet 16, shut it down. The conference will have done the unthinkable twice in a week. The first unthinkable was the SEC smashing the NCAA Tournament record with 14 teams in the field (the Big East held the previous mark with 11 in 2011). The second unthinkable would be, well, going 0-for-14.
But that’s not happening. Not in a year in which the SEC has 4 teams seeded 1-2 with 6 teams seeded 1-4.
It is, however, interesting to think about what could prevent those teams from reaching the Sweet 16. Some of those things could be internal, some could be external and some can be a combination of both things.
Here’s 1 thing that can prevent each of the SEC’s 14 NCAA Tournament teams from reaching the Sweet 16 (in alphabetical order):
Alabama — The Grant Nelson injury
Nate Oats said that Alabama “dodged one” with Nelson’s knee injury in the SEC Tournament. The veteran could be available as early as Friday for Alabama’s first-round matchup vs. Robert Morris, but at minimum, Sunday’s potential Round of 32 matchup would be the goal. That’s significant for a team that needed Nelson’s emergence to reach the Final Four last year. Alabama entered the NCAA Tournament with a 4-5 mark in the last month. Not having a full Nelson (excuse that dumb reference) could be costly for a squad that’s been inconsistent defensively, especially if it’s the case in a Round of 32 game against a Saint Mary’s squad that limits possessions as well as anyone in the field.
Arkansas — Likely facing 2 of the 4 Mt. Rushmore coaches of the last 30 years
I could point to Arkansas‘s limited rotation — Boogie Fland returning will be significant — or the fact that John Calipari hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2019 when he was at Kentucky, but let’s focus more externally. The Hogs’ path to reaching the Sweet 16 for the 4th time in the last 5 years will go through Bill Self and likely Rick Pitino. The former has 52 NCAA Tournament victories, while the latter has 54. Yes, Calipari has even more than them with 57. He’s also in Year 1 and still trying to show that his 2020s woes from Kentucky are a thing of the past. Getting past Kansas — something his predecessor did 2 years ago — isn’t far-fetched considering how mediocre the Jayhawks have been in Big 12 play. Getting past a St. John’s team that ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and doing so on a quick turnaround would be Calipari’s most impressive feat of the 2020s decade.
Auburn — Playing in a potential road game in the Round of 32
Last year, Auburn was stunned to get a 4-seed and a West Coast destination after winning the SEC Tournament and being No. 5 in NET. This year, Auburn got the No. 1 overall seed with a historically great résumé — it’s why the Tigers are 3rd in the national title odds — but it also got potentially one of the most head-scratching Round of 32 matchups possible. Facing Louisville in Lexington would be similar to when Duke drew a Round of 32 matchup against South Carolina in Greenville, SC, in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The underdog Gamecocks fed off what felt like a home crowd en route to an upset win. Auburn is far more battle-tested than that 2017 Duke squad, but an under-seeded Louisville team could prove to be quite the challenge for Bruce Pearl’s squad, especially if the Cardinals get out to a quick start to get the crowd involved.
Florida — Dan Hurley
With all due respect to Oklahoma, who we’ll get to in a second here, the Gators would prefer to not see the man responsible for the last 2 national titles. Seeing Hurley on short rest would be daunting, even though his team appears to be a shell of its title-winning self. It’s easy to forget that his first title team in 2023 was a bit like 2006 Florida. It played extremely well down the stretch and made everyone forget that it wasn’t a top-2 seed in the field. Hurley’s ability to dominate this tournament — he would have 13 consecutive NCAA Tournament wins if UConn beats Oklahoma — wasn’t just the byproduct of 1 player or 1 magical team. Hence, why this is about Hurley and not just UConn. His teams typically don’t waste possessions and they make it extremely difficult to get high-percentage looks at the rim. As hot as Florida is, Hurley’s Huskies are the champ until they’re dethroned.
Georgia — The extremely high floor of Gonzaga in March
Ignore that 8-seed. Instead, pay attention to the fact that Mark Few reached the Sweet 16 in 9 consecutive NCAA Tournaments. Granted, none of those teams were dealt the path that this one was because of those 3 Quad 2 losses. Mike White’s squad will battle a program that ranks No. 8 in NET and No. 9 in KenPom. At the same time, UGA shook off that 4-10 start to SEC play by closing the regular season with a 4-game winning streak, including a monumental victory against surging Florida. The battle of the Bulldogs will be determined by who asserts their style. A game in the 60s or 70s? Advantage, Georgia. A game in the 80s or 90s? Advantage, Gonzaga. Georgia’s ability to prevent Gonzaga from getting high-percentage looks — the Zags only get 1/4 of their scoring via the 3-ball — will be paramount if it hopes to earn its first Round of 32 trip since 2002.
Kentucky — Anything less than the full Lamont Butler experience
We know that Kentucky will be without Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa after both were lost to season-ending injuries. The positive development ahead of the NCAA Tournament was that Butler’s shoulder injury vs. Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament wasn’t as serious as originally feared and that he was set to return for the first round. With limited depth, UK needs the former San Diego State transfer to look like he’s 100%, even if he’s not. His ability to lock down opposing guards was missed vs. Alabama in a blowout loss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. UK needs Butler’s Final Four experience to surface not just in the Round of 32, but also against Troy leading scorer Tayton Conerway. Kentucky fans know all too well not to overlook a prolific scorer in a first-round matchup. A healthy Butler gives UK the best chance to avoid disaster in consecutive years.
Mississippi State — A rested Cooper Flagg
All eyes are on the ankle of the Duke freshman sensation. Will he play in the Round of 64 game? Or will Jon Scheyer rest his All-American knowing that the Blue Devils just won the ACC Tournament even after Flagg wasn’t available because of an ankle injury in the quarterfinals? There’s a chance that even if Flagg plays in Round 1, he could be limited with his minutes. That would give him the opportunity to be closer to 100% for a potential Mississippi State matchup if it can get past a disappointing Baylor squad in the 8-9 matchup. Cameron Matthews’ size could present a unique matchup for Flagg, but when he’s been on the floor, Duke has been nearly invincible. He could end plenty of seasons in his first (and likely last) NCAA Tournament.
Mizzou — A pair of extremely slow-tempo teams
Drake isn’t just slow with its tempo. It ranks dead last in Division I in offensive possessions per 40 minutes and yet, it won 18 of its last 19 games because it shoots at a 48% clip. I know what you’re thinking. Mizzou also shoots at a 48.5% clip, and it doesn’t play at a particularly urgent tempo, either (No. 121 in tempo). The issue for Mizzou getting through opening weekend is that Texas Tech, who could await in the Round of 32, is also extremely effective at slowing a game down and forcing a team to capitalize on limiting scoring opportunities (No. 281 in tempo). Four of Mizzou’s 5 leading scorers are former transfers who played in the NCAA Tournament at other schools. That experience will be pivotal if possessions are at a premium.
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Oklahoma — Either the 2-time defending champs or the 2nd favorite to win it all … take your pick
A draw of UConn and Florida is unkind, but then again, a team that goes 6-12 in conference play should probably just be thankful to be in the field at all. That’s the good news for Porter Moser’s squad. It won’t carry the weight of trying to 3-peat like the aforementioned Hurley at UConn, and perhaps his squad can benefit from many circling in a potential passing-of-the-torch matchup between the Huskies and Florida in the Round of 32. The bad news is that even if the Sooners get through that daunting 8-9 matchup, it’ll face a Florida team that it got dismantled by a month ago, who also happens to be the hottest team in the field. Any world in which the Sooners survive the opening weekend would be worthy of “Cinderella” status.
Ole Miss — An “us against the world” UNC
There’s something to be said for having to face the winner of a First Four game when it’s a pair of true bubble teams. There have been 5 First Four teams to reach the Sweet 16 since it became a thing in 2011. Could UNC be next? Obviously, that matchup would be in the Round of 64 for Chris Beard’s squad, which reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. As scrutinized as UNC has been for reaching the field with 1 Quad 1 win, would anyone be surprised if the Heels turned around and looked like a different version of itself upon arrival? The good news for Ole Miss is that if it can get past that tricky Round 1 matchup, it’ll face an Iowa State team that’ll be without star guard Keshon Gilbert.
Tennessee — That dreaded second-half scoring drought
You’ve seen that movie before, Tennessee fans. It’s become the only true negative of the Rick Barnes era. In an NCAA Tournament game, the Vols look like they’re in control and frustrating an opposing team, only to endure a 6-minute stretch without a made basket, which totally flips the momentum. It happened against Michigan in 2022, it happened against FAU in 2023 and with the Vols in pursuit of their first Final Four berth ever, it happened against Purdue. Granted, the Vols’ ability to defend the entire floor is second to none. But if a Mick Cronin-coached UCLA team suddenly puts the clamps on at the perfect time, nobody would be surprised. The Vols, even with Dalton Knecht successor Chaz Lanier, aren’t immune to those rough scoring stretches. Any scenario in which Tennessee fails to reach the Sweet 16 — a place the Vols reached each of the last 2 years — would inevitably involve an untimely offensive drought.
Texas — Winning 3 NCAA Tournament games for a team that won 1 out of every 3 conference games is … daunting
That sounded mean. You get what I’m saying, though. If the pushback is “well, the SEC was loaded,” answer this. Was that a better barometer for Texas‘s NCAA chances than the nonconference slate? Yup. Yes, the Longhorns had 7 Quad 1 wins. They also endured 5 Quad 2 losses and were unable to put together a 3-game winning streak after the calendar turned to 2025. Speaking of the calendar turning, since March began, leading scorer Tre Johnson endured a shooting slump. He’s a combined 28-for-85 (33%) in those 6 games. Perhaps team inconsistency comes with the territory when the leading scorer is a true freshman. Whatever the case, Texas would have the benefit of knowing that a potential Kentucky matchup could await in the Round of 32, which was one of those Quad 1 wins in the regular season.
Texas A&M — The post-Michigan State fight version of Michigan
There’s a chance that we’ll look back on Michigan’s season and say that it turned around as a result of 2 players standing on Michigan State’s logo during Senior Day. Dusty May admitted that late-game altercation was a reset moment for his team, which then won the Big Ten Tournament after it lost 3 in a row to end the regular season. Make of that what you will. What’s clear is that if A&M draws the Wolverines — who might’ve been under-seeded with 12 Quad 1 wins — that’s going to be a physical, heavyweight fight for Buzz Williams’ squad. Alternatively, trendy upset pick UC San Diego could await A&M and make life difficult on Wade Taylor IV and Co. The Tritons haven’t lost a game in 2 months, and they didn’t allow 75 points once during that stretch. And of course, go ask 4-seeds from the SEC what happens when you overlook Yale … too soon, Auburn? Probably. Buzz Williams’ first Sweet 16 berth at A&M would be no small feat with the path that awaits.
Vanderbilt — The slow, unique matchup that is Saint Mary’s … and then potentially the complete opposite vs. Alabama
Here’s a wild thought. If Vandy gets past a Saint Mary’s team that ranks No. 359 out of 364 teams in tempo, it’ll likely face Alabama, who ranks No. 1 in that department. It’s a complete contrast of styles for a Vandy team that’s been a bit all over the place. A 3-game winning streak vs. AP Top 25 teams was sandwiched between a pair of 3-game losing streaks. The most daunting task will be getting high-quality looks against a Saint Mary’s squad that hasn’t allowed 70 points in a game since January. Vandy, on the other hand, hasn’t won a game while scoring less than 70 points since Jan. 15. That’s the only time that happened all year. Speeding up Saint Mary’s and slowing down Alabama — 2 things that rarely happened for either team — is Vandy’s path to reaching its first Sweet 16 since 2007.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
