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10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after the first weekend of March Madness in the SEC
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After 4 furious full days of basketball in the NCAA Tournament, one thing is clear: the SEC is king, and any other take is contrarianism for contrarianism’s sake or plain, old-fashioned cope.
The first weekend proved that, ending with the SEC advancing 7 teams to the Sweet 16, the most by a single league in the history of the NCAA Tournament.
Don’t say you weren’t warned.
Heck, I tried to warn folks back at SEC Media Days, when I wrote that this would be the best league in America in 2024-25 on this very website. My editors raised an eyebrow or two, and asked if I was sure, but the signs were all there. Old, grizzled teams. Elite star power like Johni Broome of Auburn, Mark Sears of Alabama, Walter Clayton Jr. of Florida, and Zakai Zeigler at Tennessee. Hall of Fame coaches and rising star coaches who may one day become Hall of Famers. Widespread investment in winning. The tea leaves weren’t lying, were they?
The SEC proved its mettle in the regular season, breaking the single-season KenPom record for NET Rating by a league and finishing nonconference play winning a preposterous 89% of their games. Yeah, I know, the SEC only won 50% of its games in conference play (wink, wink). But to the extent there were doubters entering the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, there shouldn’t be any now.
What a performance, especially in the second round, when the SEC went a staggering 7-1 overall. That sets up a busy Sweet 16 for the league, with one head-to-head Sweet 16 matchup and 5 other games featuring SEC programs.
But before we dive into all of that, here are 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
1. Arkansas! Are you kidding me?
Full transparency time? This is the one that stunned me. Arkansas was 0-5 in the SEC, finished league play with a losing record, and opened March with a thud of a loss to league cellar dweller South Carolina in a game that wasn’t even as close as the 19-point final margin.
Arkansas was decimated by injuries throughout the regular season, and it was so bad at times that John Calipari couldn’t practice with 5 in November. But the Hogs had Boogie Fland for the first 5 league games and lost them all anyway, and Johnell Davis, the top-ranked player in the transfer portal in the offseason, seemed to lack both confidence and a defined schematic role until February. This team was a mess.
For the Hogs to beat Bill Self’s preseason No. 1 Kansas and then Calipari mortal enemy Rick Pitino and St. John’s on the first weekend to advance to the program’s fourth Sweet 16 this decade? That’s incredible.
Recency bias is to blame for suggesting this is one of Calipari’s best coaching jobs. With a team full of NBA players (Fland, D.J. Wagner, Zvonimir Ivišić, and Adou Thiero will all play in the NBA, at a minimum) and college stars (Davis, Jonas Aidoo), this was always a team that had second weekend potential.
They just seemed terribly unlikely to cash in on their talent. Now they have, and even without Thiero — who remains sidelined with a knee injury — the Hogs are more talented than Texas Tech, the team they’ll play in on Thursday in San Francisco. Pig Sooie.
2. Kentucky’s recent March Trauma gives way to Big Blue Heaven
After falling behind 5-4 early in the contest, Kentucky never trailed again, steamrolling 6th seeded Illinois 84-75 in Milwaukee to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time this decade.
Kentucky’s offensive firepower entering the NCAA Tournament was well-known. The Wildcats fell just 1 point short of their 85 points per game average on Sunday, scorching the Illini with 23 points from Kolby Brea, who made 3 3-pointers but also showed the propensity to score inside the paint, connecting on 7-8 field goals inside to showcase an improved wrinkle to his game that makes Kentucky even harder to guard.
The real story with Kentucky, though, is the health of Lamont Butler and how he changes the way they guard. After a lopsided loss to Ole Miss where Kentucky surrendered 98 points on February 4, the Wildcats ranked outside the top 100 in KenPom defensive efficiency. They now rank 45th, fielding a top 25 defense over the past 6 weeks (12 games) according to Bart Torvik. That number would likely be even higher if Butler hadn’t missed time — again — due to a torn labrum he’s played through for the past month-plus.
Mark Pope singled Butler out for praise yesterday, citing his toughness and telling the media “Courage is real,” given Butler continues to battle through an injury that would end the season of many players. Kentucky is a bona fide Final Four contender with Butler on the floor, which is dreamland material for Big Blue Nation after the traumas of so many Marches late in the Calipari era.
3. As in 3-straight Sweet 16s for Tennessee: is the Final Four breakthrough coming?
Long lamented for folding in March, the narrative on Rick Barnes is sorely outdated.
Tennessee advanced to its third-consecutive Sweet 16 this weekend, dominating Wofford and dispatching of a mirror-image, lesser version of itself UCLA in the Round of 32.
Tennessee being elite on the defensive end is a conversation we’re accustomed to having. What we haven’t discussed enough with this Volunteers team is how much it has improved offensively. The Vols ranked outside the top-30 in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, following a 30-point beating at Florida that knocked them from the No. 1 spot in the polls in early January. Since, they’ve improved to 17th, buoyed by Zakai Zeigler’s best year yet as a distributor and timely shooter, the sharpshooting of Chaz Lanier (more below), and the unsung heroics of Jordan Gainey, who can do things like drop 24 in the SEC Championship Game to keep the Vols within striking distance of Florida or other things like hit 3 timely triples in Tennessee’s 67-58 win over UCLA.
While Dalton Knecht’s ability to get a bucket at any time made Tennessee frightening last season, the Vols are harder to guard than they were last year, one SEC assistant told me this weekend. Lanier is less ball-dominant than Knecht, and that makes it easier for Barnes to space the floor and run the flex cuts, bruising pin down sets and floppy actions that have long been his signature. With a more versatile offense and the same old tenacious defense, this is Tennessee’s best shot at their program’s first Final Four.
They just need to get past Kentucky for the first time this season to play in their second consecutive Elite Eight and a shot at San Antonio.
4. I was wrong about Alabama
After Alabama escaped a knock down, drag out fight with Robert Morris on Friday afternoon, I wrote in this space that it was officially time to worry about the Crimson Tide.
Shame on me for doubting Nate Oats.
In Sunday’s 80-66 second round win over 29-win Saint Mary’s, Alabama showed it was more than capable of winning the toughness battles that define March basketball. Cliff Omoruyi dove for loose balls, Alabama out-rebounded one of the best rebounding teams in America by 5, and the Tide held the Gaels to just a 25% shooting percentage in the first half, building a 13-point advantage.
A little defense and hustle is the perfect complement to what remains one of America’s best offenses, thanks to an embarrassing amount of riches (6 players scored in double figures against Saint Mary’s) and silky actions like this one:
Alabama absolutely has the goods to return to the Final Four this weekend in Newark.
5. Rumors of Auburn’s demise were greatly exaggerated
Fifth-year Auburn big man Dylan Cardwell has seen it all and he’d seen enough after Auburn’s sleepy opening round win over Alabama State to call his teammates out.
“It was me, the walk-ons, Denver Jones and Addarin Scott,” Cardwell told the media on Saturday, explaining why he called out Auburn’s fight and heart publicly at a Friday afternoon media session. “Everybody else no-showed (for the team breakfast). I was like, ‘We don’t care anymore. We’ve lost our fight and our care,’” Cardwell said. “I had enough. I called it out.”
Auburn responded with its best half of basketball since clinching the regular-season SEC title with a dominant win at Rupp Arena on the first day of March. Down 2 at the break, Auburn outscored plucky Creighton 47-33 in the second half, behind the clinically efficient offense that helped Auburn to a 27-2 record before it dropped 3 of 4 entering the Big Dance. Tahaad Pettiford was magnificent, scoring 23 points and grabbing 6 rebounds off the bench to life the Tigers, who also received a nice game from much-maligned glue guy Chad Baker-Mazara (17 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist).
This group looked much more like the Auburn team that was a prohibitive national title favorite in February, a club with an answer to every hard question, even when Johni Broome has the rare off-night (8 points on 4-13 shooting, just 1 assist) as he did against the Bluejays.
Auburn’s sluggish first round win and slow finish to the regular season had many questioning the ceiling for Bruce Pearl’s best team yet at Auburn. And yes, Dylan Cardwell confirmed this weekend that the vibes certainly weren’t to his liking, at least on Friday. And then Saturday happened, and Auburn looked like Auburn again.
That’s a scary proposition for America.
6. Chris Beard shows again he’s one of the best basketball coaches on the planet
Beard has Ole Miss in the Sweet 16 for just the second time in school history after the Rebels upset 3-seed Iowa State 91-78 in Milwaukee on Sunday night. Not bad for a guy in just his second-year on campus, but then again, Beard has won everywhere he’s coached. He’s simply one of the best coaches on the planet. After this weekend, Beard has now led 4 Division I programs to at least the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
This might be the most surprising. Ole Miss is old, grizzled, and smart. The Rebels don’t beat themselves (third nationally in turnover percentage on offense). They aren’t big—Malik Dia, generously listed by Ole Miss as 6-9, is the tallest rotation player—but they are quick and disruptive on defense, ranking 33rd in turnovers forced and 21st in defensive efficiency.
They are also exceptionally well-balanced. Six players average double figures in scoring, and five of them — Sean Pedulla, Jaemyn Brakefield, Malik Dia, Matthew Murrell and Jaylen Murray scored in double digits against Iowa State on Sunday. Another, Dre Davis, scored in double digits in a thrilling opening round win over North Carolina. In other words, the collective is better than any individual piece. That’s the sign of a Chris Beard team, and this one has the feel of his second Texas Tech team, which used tenacious defense and a share-the-ball mentality offensively to overcome a lack of size and reach the Elite Eight. This team could match that feat in Atlanta this weekend, where they’ll undoubtedly have immense crowd support in Friday’s matchup with Michigan State.
7. The Gators send UConn and Danny Hurley home with a championship level final 4 minutes
For the second time this season in the state of North Carolina, Florida entered the final media timeout trailing a basketball game to a storied opponent.
In December at the Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte, Florida trailed North Carolina by a bucket before outscoring the Tar Heels by 9 over the final 3 minutes and change to win in a sold-out Spectrum Center. On Sunday afternoon in Raleigh, the Gators trailed back-to-back defending national champion UConn by 3 points, 61-58, with just 3:41 to play.
Once again, and this time with their season on the line, the Gators delivered with the championship resolve they’ve flashed all season on their way to the SEC Tournament title and 32 victories.
Walter Clayton Jr. scored 8 points in the final 3 minutes, including this stupendous 3 against outstanding defense, which earned the first “ONIONS” call from Bill Raftery during this edition of March Madness. Clayton Jr.’s shotmaking was enough to help the Gators erase what was a 6-point second-half deficit and end UConn’s reign of NCAA Tournament terror at 13-consecutive wins.
Florida also won because of the sturdy defense constructed by Todd Golden and his staff this offseason. The Gators held UConn without a field goal for nearly 5 minutes down the stretch, suffocating Danny Hurley’s offense with great rim protection and physicality. Solo Ball broke the drought to tie the game at 64 with just 2:15 to play, but the Gators scored the next 8 points to seal the victory and advance to the program’s 12th Sweet 16 and first since 2017.
Hero Ballers of the First Weekend:
These are the players who guided their teams when their backs were against the wall this weekend:
8. Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida)
One more note on the Florida star, who finished Florida’s win over UConn with 23 points on 5-8 from bonus land? Clayton Jr. became the first NCAA Tournament player since Steph Curry — yes, Steph Curry — to score at least 15 points and make 3 3-pointers in his first 4 NCAA Tournament games. Just Walt doing First Team All-American things for the Gators.
9. Chaz Lanier (Tennessee)
The Volunteers’ offense is more diverse this season than last year, when it was Dalton Knecht or bust, but that doesn’t diminish Lanier’s importance. The Volunteers’ best scorer dropped 24.5 points per game in his first 2 NCAA Tournament contests, connecting on a staggering 10 of his 18 3-point attempts in 2 comfortable Tennessee wins.
If Tennessee cuts down the Midwest Regional nets on their way to the program’s first Final Four, Lanier’s explosive March will be the largest reason.
10. Pour One Out for…
Texas (and Rodney Terry), Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M.
Mizzou deserved better, but you can’t fall behind a Ben McCollum- and Bennett Stirtz-led Drake team by double digits.
Texas is off to greener pastures with Sean Miller on the way to Austin. I’d say Rodney Terry deserved better, but no team underachieved more in college basketball this season relative to talent than Hook ‘Em.
Georgia has a massive rebuild ahead once Asa Newell hits the draft, but Mike White took a positive step forward by getting Georgia to the Big Dance for the first time in a decade.
Mississippi State collapsed down the stretch. It’ll need to find some offensive balance beyond Josh Hubbard if it wants to breakthrough to the second weekend under Chris Jans.
Oklahoma and Vanderbilt ran into better basketball teams, fighting valiantly to the end. Porter Moser and Mark Byington remain 2 of the best coaches in the business and brighter days are ahead in Norman and Nashville.
Finally, Buzz Williams and the Aggies couldn’t hang on down the stretch on Saturday against Michigan. It’s a shame to see the career of Wade Taylor IV come to an end without a trip to the second weekend, but his legacy as an all-time A&M and SEC great is secure. There are harder questions for Williams and Texas A&M, though, who must rebuild the roster after another second-round exit for one of the NCAA’s most experienced teams.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
