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10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to in SEC Basketball: This is March Edition
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This. Is. March.
One of the greatest sporting events in the world is just a little over 2 weeks away now, with Championship Week underway and the SEC Tournament and Selection Sunday looming.
For hoopheads like yours truly, it’s tough to say goodbye to the most electric regular season in SEC history. The bittersweet farewell to knowing exactly what my Tuesday and Wednesday night television habits looked like gives way to the thrill of March and the most wonderful time of the year in this sport.
Congratulations are in order to Bruce Pearl and Auburn, who clinched the SEC Championship outright last Saturday with a dominant 94-78 win at Rupp Arena. Even after a flat performance at Texas A&M on Tuesday night, the Tigers are 27-3, one of the 10 most dominant teams of the KenPom era in Net Rating, and on track to be the # 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Not bad for a team led by a trio of midmajor transfers and a coach who wasn’t told he couldn’t win big at Auburn.
From the crowning of a champion to frenetic finishes to awards season, here’s a fresh batch of things I’m overreacting to as SEC play enters March.
1. Auburn is already the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament
Yes, Auburn looked uncharacteristically listless in Tuesday night’s 83-72 loss at No. 22 Texas A&M.
But it’s hard to win on the road and even more difficult on a night the Aggies honored several seniors, including Wade Taylor IV, one of the best players in Texas A&M program history. Credit the Aggies, too, who had lost 4 in a row but clearly were locked in for Auburn, dominating the Tigers on the glass 41-25 and forcing 13 Tigers’ turnovers. That’s the thing about playing in the best conference in the sport: sometimes, when you lose, the other team is really, really good.
Despite the defeat, Auburn remains a lock 1-seed and likely top overall seed come Selection Sunday. The Tigers’ résumé is simply that much better than everyone else in contention. Auburn has 15 Quad 1 wins, just 2 short of the record set by Kansas in 2023, and Pearl’s team is 21-3 in Quad 1 and 2, giving them 5 more wins in quadrant 1 and 3 more wins against quadrant 1 and 2 than every other team in contention for the top overall seed.
Auburn won the league title in the best college hoops league in the KenPom era with 2 games to spare, crushing Kentucky on its home floor on Saturday in a game that pushed them to a staggering 16-2 in Quadrant 1 (Auburn is now 15-3 in that quadrant, as the NET giveth and taketh away).
Auburn’s final regular season game is a Quadrant 1A battle with Alabama on Senior Day at Neville Arena. Even if the Tigers lose that game (unlikely, on Johni Broome Day), they will still have won the SEC outright. They’ll still be the top seed at the SEC Tournament and assuming they win the 8/9 game quarterfinal on Thursday in Nashville, they’d likely add yet another Quad 1 win. A SEC quarterfinal win, even with an Alabama loss, would put Auburn at 28-4 overall with win quality no one in the field can touch. A special season, deserving of a special seed.
2. Frenetic finishes fitting for March
Three frenetic finishes to SEC basketball games over the past week were a fitting “Welcome to March”, where desperation gets dialed up and every possession can feel momentous.
Alabama at Tennessee
The first came on Saturday at the Food City Center, where then No. 5 Tennessee won one of the best games of the year against then No. 6 Alabama. The Crimson Tide led by 8 with 9:30 remaining and by 4 with just 36 seconds remaining. That’s when Jahmai Mashack made 3 enormous plays that will rightly live forever in Tennessee lore.
First, Mashack competed on the glass, earning a foul on a push by Alabama’s Jarin Stevenson. Mashack then buried 2 free throws to tie the basketball game at 76 with just 30 seconds remaining. Then, after helping force a late Alabama turnover, Mashack went the length of the court—despite Rick Barnes pleading for a timeout—and made this jump shot to keep Tennessee firmly in the NCAA Tournament 1-seed conversation.
Dickie V said it best, as he often does: “Are you serious?”
Texas at Mississippi State
Tuesday night’s finish in the Texas-Mississippi State game in Starkville won’t factor into the 1-seed conversation but certainly had an impact on the bubble picture as the season enters the final weekend.
Texas arrived in Starkville losers of 6 of its last 7, having fallen out of the field per Bracketmatrix.com, which aggregates bracket projections from across the basketball internet. The Longhorns left Starkville with Quad 1 win number 5, very much still alive in the at-large conversation.
Texas nearly lost the game in the final 30 seconds of regulation, when it coughed up a 4-point lead with silly turnovers against a makeshift Mississippi State press. I feel for Riley Kugel. The Florida transfer was especially impactful down the stretch for State, scoring a game-tying layup to force overtime and making a gutty hustle-play tip to help State score on a run-out and erase a 5-point deficit in the extra session. Kugel then scored on this and-one to tie the game at 82, and he was fouled on the ensuing possession, with 2 shots at the line to give State a lead. Kugel missed both, going from hero to goat in a blink. That’s a shame given State wouldn’t have even been in the game but for Kugel. Star Josh Hubbard was 0-4 from the field in OT with a foul.
Texas, behind the latest massive game from freshman Tre Johnson, who leads the SEC in scoring, and a hot Tramon Mark, who scored 24 points on a ruthlessly efficient 9-13 from the field off the bench, escaped with a huge 5-point win. Hook ‘Em was in the First Four Out grouping heading into the midweek game at State. It now feels like a win over rival Oklahoma on Saturday should be enough to send the Horns to the Big Dance.
Tennessee at Ole Miss
Tennessee was on the losing end of a frenetic ending on Wednesday night in Oxford.
The Volunteers led by as many as 8 points in the second half before Jaemyn Brakefield took the game over. The senior playing his last game in Oxford scored all 19 of his points in the second half, including this game winning putback with just under 10 seconds remaining in the game.
The win was a masterclass in coaching by Chris Beard, who kept attacking with Brakefield downhill in isolation. Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes threw the kitchen sink at Brakefield, switching from Felix Okpara to Chaz Lanier to defensive stopper Mashack—but no one could put the brakes on Brakefield.
Igor Miličić Jr. missed a bunny at the tin to send the game to overtime, sending the Pavillion into raptures and likely knocking Tennessee off the 1-seed line it had grabbed on Saturday by beating Alabama.
Welcome to March, y’all.
3. Team of the Week: Georgia Bulldogs
Left for dead by most in mid-February, Mike White and the Dawgs might be the best story of the last 2 weeks in SEC hoops. After storming to a 26-point lead over Florida at home, they held on to hand the Gators their only loss of the last month. They capped that off this week by winning 2 huge SEC road games, including a dominant performance in a Quad 1 bubble battle at Texas on Saturday.
Silas Demary Jr. has been revelatory for Georgia over the past month.
A load of physicality and size who can get into the paint at will, Demary Jr. has been plagued by turnover issues throughout his first 2 seasons at Georgia. He’s cleaned those up over the past month, committing just 5 turnovers in his last 3 games despite a usage rate among the highest in the SEC. Demary Jr. is also making shots—he’s 9 for his last 21 from distance—giving this Georgia team a reliable option beyond Blue Cain from the perimeter. That’s changed the way people have to guard Georgia.
With viable outside shooting, the Dawgs can better space the floor, opening the paint for brilliant freshman Asa Newell, who won’t win the SEC scoring title like fellow freshman Tre Johnson of Texas but is the most impactful SEC freshman nonetheless, stuffing the stat sheet with efficient rim scoring, pick and pop capability, and tenacious rebounding. Newell ranks in the top 20 in the SEC in offensive rating, free throw rate, offensive rebounding, effective field goal percentage, and defensive box/plus minus. He deserves to win SEC Freshman of the Year next week, and along with Demary Jr., gives the Dawgs two stars capable of a nice run in March.
4. No, it isn’t just “Auburn or Duke” for the national title…
A common refrain over the last month has been that this season is about 2 historically good teams—Auburn and Duke—and then everyone else.
Yes, Auburn, led by one of the best 2 players in the sport and a Hall of Fame Coach, is awesome. Yes, Duke, despite playing in perhaps the worst version of the ACC in modern history, is pummeling all comers behind a Wooden Award worthy freshman and a team loaded with future NBA talent.
I hate to be the narrative-buster on my SEC soapbox but instead of telling a story that March is a battle between 2 great teams, the data tells a story of a generationally good season, one with 5 and perhaps 6 elite teams all capable of winning 6 in a row in the NCAA Tournament.
The data also tells that story.
The KenPom era began in 1997, and since that time, there have been 5 or more teams with a NET Rating of 30 or above in the same season just 3 times: 2015 (6), 2019 (5), and this season, where Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, and Tennessee all boast NET ratings above 30. In other words, this year is a historical outlier in terms of the number of elite teams, rather than a season where 2 teams are in fact overwhelmingly better than everyone else.
To provide even further context, Duke (39.37), Auburn (36.46), Houston (35.05), and Florida (34.28) all have NET ratings higher than all but 3 of the past 27 national champions.
In other words, if you are a KenPom and analytics believer, there are actually 5-6 (Alabama’s NET rating is near 30) elite teams this season, and 4 teams (Duke, Auburn, Florida, and Houston) that are generationally good.
5. And Florida proved that last night against Alabama
Outside of Auburn, is there a team in America with 3 wins as good as Florida’s trio of Tennessee (by 30!), at Auburn, and at Alabama? Florida’s win over Auburn was already the best résumé win of the 2024-25 campaign. Wednesday night’s 99-94 takedown of Alabama in Tuscaloosa is a top 5 résumé win this year.
The Gators did it by playing to the identity they’ve built in 3 seasons under Todd Golden, dominating Alabama 50-35 on the glass and 16-10 on the offensive glass and relentlessly attacking the Crimson Tide’s drop coverage offensively with a series of deep paint drives, flex, and baseline cuts that punished help defense.
Alex Condon was sensational for Florida, pouring in 27 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Not bad for a sophomore who had just 3 Division 1 scholarship offers.
Walter Clayton Jr. added 22 points and 8 assists for the Gators, ending any reasonable debate over whether he should be a First Team All-American. The ballots come out next week, and Clayton Jr. is one of the best 5 players in America.
Golden merits both SEC and National Coach of the Year discussion. A disciple of Randy Bennett and Bruce Pearl, Golden is a combination of both. His defensive scheme is straight out of Randy Bennett’s book, as the Gators run you off the three-point line and make you shoot over their bigs in the paint. But Golden gives his players the freedom that has made Pearl one of the best coaches in the sport, and Florida’s sterling backcourt of Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, Will Richard, Denzel Aberdeen, and Urban Klavžar play with zero fear of failure and tremendous confidence, a testament to their head coach’s ability to instill belief.
Florida is absolutely good enough to reach the program’s 6th Final Four and win the national championship next month.
6. All Glue Guy Squad
These are the guys who might not swipe All-American or All-SEC honors, but who are the heart and soul of the hard work that wins basketball games, especially in March. These are the guys that fans of your favorite team love, the guts and effort kids who get misty-eyed standing ovations on Senior Nights. These are the guys who dive for loose balls, guard the opposing team’s best player, fight for the decisive rebound, and make the chase down block in transition. In the end, while star players steer the sport, glue guys are often the linchpins that key deep runs in March.
Here’s the inaugural SDS “All-Glue Guy” Squad:
- Denver Jones (Auburn)
- Denzel Aberdeen (Florida)
- Mark Mitchell (Missouri)
- Jaemyn Brakefield (Ole Miss)
- Lamont Butler (Kentucky)
*I could have gone with Florida’s Tommy Haugh and Tennessee’s Jahmai Mashack on the “All-Glue” team as well, but both players are honored below.
Either way, I’ll ride with these 5 guys to make winning plays this month.
7. Hero Baller of the Week: Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)
The fearless freshman struck terror in the hearts of Mizzou Wednesday night, scoring 31 points to help the Sooners win a game essential to their NCAA Tournament hopes. Fears can score at all 3 levels and was ruthlessly efficient on Wednesday, making 9 of 13 shots in pacing the Sooners offense to 96 points, their best effort in SEC play this season. Fears ability to consistently get in the paint ultimately opened things up for his teammates, and 3 of Fears’ 5 assists came in the second half.
Fears’ ability as a scorer is why he’s a projected lottery pick, but he’s impactful even when he isn’t filling up the bucket. Fears stuffed the stat sheet (13 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds) in a tight loss at Ole Miss on Saturday afternoon.
Just 5-12 in the SEC, the Sooners likely need at least 1 more win to feel good about their name being called on Selection Sunday. A date with rival Texas- in the ultimate bubble clash- awaits. You can bet Fears is ready to be the hero.
8. Where I am eating on a SEC Basketball Weekend in… Knoxville, TN
SEC lifers have their staples when they go to the Scruffy City. Calhoun’s on the River, site of many famed Jon Gruden sightings over the past 2 decades. Sweet P’s, where you can get Carolina-style BBQ better than anything you’ll taste in say, Charlotte, and if you hit up the Downtown Dive location, there’s a garden for adult beverages and a fine craft beer collection (21 and up, of course). But the best place I’ve eaten in Knoxville is JC Holdway’s, and it might be the best place to eat in the SEC. Chef Joseph Lenn is a James Beard Award winner (this is the Heisman for cooks) and he cooks every dish on a wood-fired grill, adding smoky flavor to an establishment that’s part-homage to Appalachia meals at the family dinner table, part modern southern culinary triumph. A carefully thought cocktail menu and wine list complement the innovative menu, which changes seasonally. Highlights from my visit include a surprisingly delightful chicken liver pate on sourdough bread and a handmade bacon Bolognese that came covered in a parmesan, cornbread crumble—a dish almost good enough to have me humming ex Rocky Top.
9. The SEC’s Record-Breaking 13 (Yes, 13) NCAA Tournament Teams Will Be:
Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas, and the winner of the Texas/Oklahoma game.
10. SEC Awards Snapshot, End of February Edition
Best 5:
Johni Broome (Auburn)
Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida)
Zakai Ziegler (Tennessee)
Mark Sears (Alabama)
Collin Murray-Boyles (South Carolina)/Chaz Lanier (Tennessee)/Otega Oweh (Kentucky)
Player of the Year: Broome
Defensive Player of the Year: Jahmai Mashack (Tennessee)
Sixth Man of the Year: Thomas Haugh (Florida)
Freshman of the Year: Asa Newell (Georgia)
Coach of the Year: Bruce Pearl (Auburn)
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
