5 early thoughts on Auburn-Florida, AKA the most important SEC basketball game ever

It’s only fitting that it happened in 2025. SEC teams will face off in the Final Four for the first time ever.

After a year in which the SEC smashed regular-season records (14 teams appeared in the AP Top 25) and postseason records (7 teams reached the Sweet 16), it feels right that we’ll get the conference’s historically prolific regular-season champion against the conference’s tournament champion. For that reason, it’s the most important SEC basketball game ever. We know that an Auburn vs. Florida semifinal game in San Antonio means that the SEC will have a team in the Men’s Basketball National Championship for the first time since Kentucky reached the title game in 2014.

We don’t know who’ll get there or what it’ll take to do so. The FanDuel odds suggest that it’s anyone’s tournament to win with all 1-seeds in the Final Four for just the second time ever since the field expanded in 1985:

• Duke +110
• Florida +270
• Auburn +450
• Houston +450

So what should we know about this matchup?

Here are some early thoughts on Auburn-Florida, Part II:

1. Florida beating Auburn in Part I is significant … to an extent

Let’s start with the 2024-25 history of these 2 squads. In case you forgot, Auburn was 20-1 from Dec. 8-March 1. The lone loss? At home against Florida. That’s significant because you can dismiss every other loss on Auburn’s schedule.

Duke? That was all the way back in the first week of December. Texas A&M? That was after Auburn clinched the regular-season title. Alabama? Same story. The SEC Tournament semifinal loss to Tennessee? The No. 1 overall seed was already locked up.

With Florida, however, you saw the Gators beat Auburn when it was at its best. In a game in which Florida didn’t even have Alijah Martin available and Will Richard picked up 2 fouls before the first media timeout, no part of that result was a fluke. The Gators went into one of the toughest places to play against the hottest team in America, and they never trailed after the 4:24 mark of the first half. It wasn’t even as close as the 9-point margin suggested. Does that matter for Saturday’s rematch? To a certain extent, it does. If this is simply about which team has the higher ceiling, you can’t definitively say that Auburn owns that title.

At the same time, it’s been nearly 2 months since that showdown. Both teams have endured plenty of adversity and have had to dig deep in all-or-nothing moments after trailing by 9-10 points in the second half of an NCAA Tournament game. That matters.

Maybe it also matters that it was a master vs. disciple victory for Todd Golden. The former Auburn assistant and current Florida coach found the right formula to attack Bruce Pearl’s normally solid half-court defense, which ranks No. 8 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Golden might’ve also had the right mix of coverages without fouling against All-American Johni Broome, who needed 19 shots to get a team-high 18 points in that first meeting.

Speaking of Broome …

2. Don’t ignore the Johni Broome injury just because of that made-for-Hollywood shot after he returned

I don’t want this to sound like I’m discounting Broome draining an epic 3-pointer after returning to the game post-injury. This could be the new leader for “best Auburn basketball moment ever.”

That was cinema. Regardless of what happens in the Final Four, nobody can take that away from Broome or Auburn.

But as it relates to the Final Four matchup, I don’t think that shot means he’ll be at 100%. If you watched those final 5 minutes after he made his triumphant return to the floor, Auburn did plenty of offense-defense substituting with the southpaw. Banging in the post with a limited right arm wasn’t necessary for Broome in the final 4 minutes of that game. If it had been a 2- or 3-point game instead of a 9- or 10-point game, perhaps that would’ve been felt more.

Negative X-rays and an “I’ll be good to go” from Broome were positive developments. Also working in Broome’s favor is that he’s got until Saturday to recover for what’ll likely be a relentless attack on both sides of the ball from Florida’s bigs. That means Dylan Cardwell’s presence will be magnified, especially if Florida wants to attack the rim early with a potentially limited Broome. Cardwell can’t afford to pick up a couple of cheap fouls.

The good news for Auburn is that playing without Broome for that 2-week stretch in January should prevent any sort of panic if he’s not his usual effective self. The bad news is that anything less than an A+ performance against a team like Florida could be all she wrote.

3. Auburn had better have a (better) plan for Thomas Haugh

He’s a problem. Well, for Florida, his impact down the stretch against Texas Tech was the solution.

Outside of maybe Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, there’s not a more versatile player remaining in this tournament than Haugh. Period. His minutes never seem to go to waste. Whether it’s flying in to crash the offensive glass and extend a possession or draining a 3 with a post player that gives him too much airspace, Haugh has been an essential piece of this Florida run. His motor is second to none, and if Auburn’s bigs aren’t up for the task, he can make them pay on both sides of the floor.

In the first matchup, Auburn couldn’t handle Haugh. That game served as a coming-out-party of sorts with a 16-point performance that saw him shoot a career-high (at the time) 8 free throws. He also had 3 blocks, 3 offensive rebounds and 3 assists during his 29 minutes of action.

Auburn has to find ways to get Haugh to put the ball on the floor. If there’s an area where Haugh can be a bit of a liability at times, that’s it. That’ll be easier said than done, especially if the aforementioned Broome injury is a factor. Don’t be surprised if we see Cardwell try to send a message early against Haugh. Maybe that’s a hard (but clean) foul on an instance in which Haugh swoops in on the offensive glass. Whatever that plan is, Auburn has to execute it, or else Haugh can be the difference-maker once again.

4. The Denver Jones-Walter Clayton Jr. matchup will be fantastic

Before you remind me that there’ll be plenty of instances in which we see Chad Baker-Mazara, Chaney Johnson or Miles Kelly switch on screens and be tasked with containing Clayton, save your breath. I’m aware of that. But I’d expect to see plenty of Jones matched up on Clayton, who has been hitting big shot after big shot all year for the Gators. That’s no secret. Airspace hasn’t been an issue, even when seemingly everyone in the building knows who the offense is running through during winning time. There’ll only be so much that Jones can do to limit that without fouling.

What’ll be more interesting is seeing how Jones defends Clayton when he attacks the basket. When Florida needs to answer a run, those are the looks that Golden turns to. It’s a big reason why Florida hasn’t been held to less than 77 points since that 44-point dud at Tennessee on Feb. 1. Jones has been at the center of Auburn’s remarkable defensive showing during the NCAA Tournament, which saw all 4 opponents held to 70 points or less.

For a Final Four-bound team, Clayton and the Gators have been a bit careless with turnovers at times. If Jones can initiate that — or even just force Clayton into difficult 2s late in the shot clock — it’ll have a major impact.

5. Whoever wins this game is plenty capable of challenging Duke

I don’t mean that as a shot at Houston, who I had in the national championship in my original bracket, but Duke is the clear favorite to advance to the title game. Whether or not that plays out remains to be seen. But if Duke can find answers to navigate the full Houston experience, there’s no world in which the Auburn-Florida winner should be a significant underdog. I won’t remind anyone of the lack of depth in the ACC because that’s well-documented.

I will, however, remind the masses that as dominant as this Duke run has been — 1 post-November loss is absurd — the last time it faced a team ranked in the top 25 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency was the Auburn game on Dec. 4. Every team in San Antonio ranks in the top 10 in both of those key metrics. Auburn would have the obvious benefit of adjusting to what didn’t work in that matchup at Cameron Indoor while Florida would have the benefit of forcing Duke to adjust to the most versatile offensive attack it faced all year.

Will that matter? Maybe, maybe not. But anyone who dismisses that possibility will be in for a surprise come Monday night.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.