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College Basketball

A New Year’s Resolution for every SEC basketball team

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

Bowl season is almost over, and with Alabama and Georgia set to meet again in National Championship Game next Monday night, the eyes of most college sports fans are still firmly fixed on college football.

None of that changes the fact, of course, that conference play in SEC basketball began Dec. 29. It was a solid nonconference slate for the SEC, which ranks 3rd in the KenPom Adjusted Efficiency ratings as a conference, behind only the B1G and the Big 12 among Power 6 leagues. The SEC features 5 teams in this week’s AP Top 25, and as many as 7 SEC teams have been ranked during the season to date. The league also features 3 teams in the NET Top 10, more than any other conference, and 7 in the NET Top 50, second only to the B1G among all conferences. The SEC also features 8 teams in Joe Lunardi’s Latest ESPN Bracketology, the second-most among all leagues.

In other words, the league should be fiercely competitive, with wins — and the difference between a league title and no SEC Tournament bye, or an NCAA bid and settling for the NIT — all happening at the margins.

The SEC’s competitive equity and parity make finding difference makers and maintaining what was worked, or correcting what’s gone wrong, all the more important as the calendar turned to 2022.

With that in mind, here is a New Year’s Resolution for every SEC basketball team entering 2022.

Alabama: Shoot the 3 more consistently

It’s tempting to suggest the Crimson Tide need to rebound better as they enter SEC play. After all, the Tide were ranked 200th in defensive rebounding, per Ken Pom. But the reality is that thus far, the difference between Alabama this season and last year’s SEC Champion is shooting.

The Crimson Tide finished 30th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in 2020-21, per KenPom, a very good, but not quite elite, number. They did that shooting an extremely high volume of 3s, but making their fair share of them, ranking 100th nationally in makes.

This season? The Tide are actually a more efficient offense than last year! They rank 9th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

So why do they need to shoot better? Because they are still taking a huge volume of 3 point jump shots, but making less — ranking 156th nationally in 3-point field goal percentage.

That wouldn’t have been a huge issue a season ago, when Alabama was masterful defensively. But this year, without Herb Jones, Josh Primo and John Petty, the Tide are who they are a bit on defense. They are going to give up points, and Nate Oats isn’t going to stop playing man defense just because the other team scores a few more points.

What Oats needs to happen — and what would offset their defensive issues — is to make more shots. Case in point? Here are Alabama’s 3-point shooting percentages in their 3 losses: 5-17, 29% vs Iona; 10-33, 30%, vs Memphis; 12-36, 33% vs. Davidson.

Contrast those numbers with the Tide that beat Gonzaga (13-34, 38%) or toppled Houston (7-18, 39%) — and you get the idea.

They outlasted Tennessee in their SEC opener despite not shooting particularly well, but as long as the Tide shoot 3s at a high clip, they’ll win games.

Arkansas: Get JD Notae and Chris Lykes to play like they are capable

Speaking of teams that need to make more shots: Arkansas is another preseason SEC favorite that simply isn’t making enough jump shots right now. The Razorbacks rank 279th in the country in three-point field goal percentage and that’s led to a nonconference resume that features only 1 quality win (a neutral floor win over Cincinnati) and a head-scratching loss (to Hofstra in Little Rock).

The biggest reason for the Razorbacks’ shooting woes?

Instant bucket JD Notae’s senior year is off to a slow start. A career 35% shooter from deep, Notae has hit just 29% of his looks from beyond the arc this season, despite record volume (Notae is shooting 2 more 3s per game than he’s ever attempted). Notae is scoring — and his effective field goal percentage at the rim is the best of his career. But if he’s going to shoot almost 8 3s a night (7.7 currently), he needs to make more. Otherwise, he’s better off attacking the tin.

Chris Lykes, meanwhile, is a super senior who shot 35% from deep in 4 years at Miami. He’s shooting 2 points below that (33.3%) at Arkansas, despite deferring more to his teammates. His issues are less about shooting, though, and more about creating. A devastating drive and kick player with otherworldly speed on the ball, he originally seemed like an ideal fit for Eric Musselman’s “space and pace” offense. That just hasn’t been true yet in 2021. Lykes averages just 1.7 assists per game, nearly 4 per night below his Hurricanes averages in the ACC. Lykes is best when the threat of his penetration and his speed disrupts defenses and creates opportunities in space for teammates.

The Hogs need to unleash that side of Lykes to be an NCAA Tournament team in 2021-22.

Auburn: Grind out a 4-1 start to SEC play

Auburn has a legitimate shot at a 2 or 3 seed (or even a 1) and should be considered one of the favorites, if not the outright favorite, in the SEC entering league play. Two transfers, KD Johnson of Georgia and Walker Kessler of North Carolina, have provided a spark to a team that will only get better when brilliant scorer Allen Flanigan gets back into game shape. The Tigers rank 10th in the NET and with 2 Quad 1 wins and two more Quad 2 victories, Auburn collected plenty of scalps ahead of SEC play.

The league office wasn’t particularly kind, however, when it created Auburn’s January slate. Only Florida has a tougher opening month in the country, per KenPom. If the Tigers manage an opening 5-game slate that includes games against 4 KenPom top 100 foes (they crushed LSU at home, at South Carolina, home vs. Florida, at Alabama, at Ole Miss) with a 4-1 record, they’ll go from potential SEC favorite to prohibitive favorite.

Florida: Find an offensive identity

The Gators are one of the more curious cases in the SEC entering conference play. At times, say, in routing a talented FSU team or winning the Rocket Mortgage Fort Myers City Tip-Off, beating B1G favorite Ohio State in the process, Florida looks like a contender in the SEC.

At other times, say in a 2-seed line type bad loss at home to Texas Southern, or in a rock fight with a mediocre South Florida, the Gators look like they may have trouble extending their SEC-best NCAA Tournament appearance streak to 6.

The biggest reason for Florida’s inconsistency?

The Gators lack an offensive identity. The 5 out offense looks good at times, but Florida is too turnover-prone when left to its own devices. Instead, they’ve been much better in set offense, even if they aren’t making a ton of shots.

Mike White would be wise to get this team in more sets — finding ways to create extra points for a team that defends well enough to stay in most every game it will play.

Georgia: Find the money for Tom Crean’s buyout

Georgia has 0 wins over Power 6 opponents in 2021, and that number won’t increase by much during SEC play in 2022. The Dawgs don’t defend, they are too turnover-prone to take advantage of a roster that can score, and after upsetting a good Memphis team, they promptly lost 2 of their next 4 games, including an embarrassing loss at home to East Tennessee State.

Tom Crean’s buyout was $7.2 million a year ago. It is now $3.2 million. That’s not terrible, but it’s still expensive for a school with less institutional commitment to basketball than its SEC brethren. Maybe a little College Football Playoff money can be spared? However it happens, Crean has to go. Hiring a coach who failed at a blue blood to build a program that considers basketball an afterthought was odd to begin with, but the results have been even worse than anticipated.

Kentucky: 15 Oscar Tshiebwe double-doubles in league play

Fifteen? That seems like a tall order, you might say.

It is. But Tshiebwe is capable. He has 10 in Kentucky’s first 13 games, and recently posted his most remarkable stat line of all in a 14-point, 28-rebound (yes, 28-rebound) performance against a quality Western Kentucky team heading into Christmas break.

Kentucky’s offense is lethal because they can simply crush you on the glass, largely thanks to Tshiebwe. The Wildcats rank 1st in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, which means even when they aren’t finishing drives or Kellan Grady isn’t burying you in a sea of triples, they create second possessions.

The vast improvements offensively aren’t just about rebounding, of course. Kentucky is older and smarter this year, and they share the ball. The Cats had 20 assists on 38 made baskets against UNC and 27 assists on 38 made baskets against WKU, both impressive wins.

But Tshiebwe stirs the drink. If he is dominating the glass and scoring enough to keep teams honest against the Cats talented guards — this is a balanced offense that will be able to impose its will during the physical grind of SEC play.

LSU: Will Wade’s defense to be as great in SEC play as it was in the non-conference

Have you heard the joke about Will Wade being allergic to defense?

Yeah, we haven’t heard it much either this season, as the trolls have crawled back under their bridge.

After 2 seasons where LSU’s ceiling was limited by defenses that finished well outside the top 100 in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Wade has assembled a roster that ranked No. 1 in the country in total defense as SEC play begins. The Tigers ranked No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage defense and steal percentage, 4th in block rate, and 8th in turnover percentage. That’s exceptional, and a big reason LSU started 12-0.

Auburn dented some of those stats — most notably the unbeaten record — in the SEC opener last week.

Still, LSU’s triumvirate of Mwani Wilkinson, Tari Eason, and Darius Days, rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive box plus/minus too — a testament to just how elite the Tigers have been at preventing buckets.

Eason and company should be good in SEC play defensively regardless of opponent.

But if there’s any reason to pause right now about LSU defensively, it’s that while LSU has scheduled smart, challenging itself against a host of quality mid-major opponents, the Tigers have faced just 3 teams in either Quad 1 or Quad 2. That’s the least of any SEC team that has been ranked this year — and as a result, we aren’t entirely sure just how elite this defense is yet. Auburn scored 70 points — the most LSU has allowed this season.

One thing that’s clear? It’s better than it’s ever been under Wade — and that’s good enough for LSU to be unbeaten to date.

Mississippi State: Continue to allow the high profile transfers to shine

If there’s an SEC team that has quietly had a strong nonconference run and could be a surprise contender, it’s Ben Howland’s Mississippi State squad.

For one, the Bulldogs simply shoot it better than they have in years. Mississippi State ranks in the top 100 in 3 point field goal percentage for the first time since Howland’s 2018-19 team was a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Howland teams always defend — when they score, they tend to be really good.

For two? Transfers Garrison Brooks (UNC) and DJ Jeffries (Memphis) have been outstanding. Jeffries leads the team in blocked shots, averages 5 rebounds per contest, and is hitting 35.7% of his triples.

Meanwhile, Brooks has given Howland a true power forward to complement Tolu Smith. The duo have paired to be one of the SEC’s more formidable frontcourts, with Brooks averaging 11.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per contest. More important? Brooks is making it hard to collapse on Smith, as he’s burying 3-pointers at a high clip (12-for-28 before a rare poor showing in the SEC opener, which MSU still won easily over Arkansas) — a skill he didn’t have in Chapel Hill and one that makes this Mississippi State team hard to guard.

So long as these two transfers keep showing out, Mississippi State is absolutely a team that can be a top 4 seed at the SEC Tournament.

Missouri: Defense has to be our identity

There’s no sugarcoating it: Missouri can’t score at a high clip. The Tigers shot 24% from deep in nonconference action and have broken the 70-point barrier in just 5 of their 13 games. They don’t shoot well and, having lost elite frontcourt piece Jeremiah Tilmon from last year’s NCAA Tournament team, the Tigers don’t have the size to bully you underneath anymore.

Martin’s teams have long been known for their fundamentally sound, physical defenses, and though he has yet to engineer a top 40 unit at Missouri (per KenPom AdjDE), he’ll need to rediscover those traits if Missouri wants to sniff the NIT.

In Missouri’s best games this year — a surprise 83-75 win over a solid Utah team or an 80-75 win over a quality SMU squad — the Tigers have held their opponents to under a point per possession. They haven’t done that enough in any other contests, and rank what would be a Martin-worst 143rd in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as conference play opens. 

Without any sort of a post-up threat and awful perimeter shooting, the Mizzou offense has shown us a frightening downside. If they don’t defend better, they’ll push Georgia for the league cellar.

Ole Miss: Find help for Jarkell Joiner offensively

Speaking of teams with frightening offensive downsides, Ole Miss enters SEC play ranked 191st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom. That’s 1 spot better than Missouri, which is last in the SEC in that metric. The biggest reason? No one outside of senior guard Jarkel Joiner is playing well on offense. Joiner is playing above his career averages: shooting 35.5% from deep, making 41% of his field goals, and connecting on an impressive 85% of his free throw attempts on high volume.

Unfortunately, he’s had little help.

McDonald’s All-American Daeshun Ruffin’s entrance into the fold appears to have helped some — and Ruffin was key in the Rebels big win over Dayton this month. Ruffin has a great burst and gives the Rebels someone who can create for others simply by getting into the paint:

But for this team to reach its NCAA potential, they need Luis Rodriguez to get back to his late 2020-21 form that made Ole Miss a “Last Four Out” type squad. They’ll also need Matthew Murrell, a highly regarded shooter and high 4-star out of high school, to end his nearly 2-year long shooting drought. The former seems more likely than the latter, but if it happens, Ole Miss should have help on the way for Joiner in league play.

South Carolina: Get Jermaine Cousinard healthy and scoring

One of the more impressive things that Frank Martin’s Gamecocks did in the non-conference was beating FSU on a neutral floor without star guard Jermaine Cousinard. The junior has missed 4 games battling a muscle injury, and last played in the Gamecocks 14 point loss to Clemson on Dec. 18.

As usual, South Carolina defends like an NCAA Tournament team. The Gamecocks rank 47th nationally in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, led by Washington transfer Erik Stevenson, who has been a steal machine for Carolina. AJ Wilson, another player who has missed time due to injury, also gives South Carolina an elite rim protector.

But the Gamecocks do struggle to score, especially in the halfcourt. The only real roster solution to that problem is Cousinard. He’s shooting at a 37% clip from deep, nearly 7 points above his career average, and continues to be able to create his own look off the dribble. The Gamecocks are, as ever, very reliant on what they can create in transition. They play fast and like to score off opposing mistakes.

This league is too good to do it that way throughout league play, however, and Cousinard is the one guy they have that can create something from nothing when South Carolina needs a bucket. They have to get him healthy and scoring in 2022.

Tennessee: Keep the John Fulkerson that dominated Arizona and you might finally make a Final Four

Prior to the Arizona game, Tennessee’s early-season schedule essentially boiled down to this: if Kennedy Chandler played well, the Vols won. If he didn’t, the Vols lost.

Enter former 1st Team All-SEC selection and super senior John Fulkerson against Arizona.

It isn’t just that Fulkerson went for 24 and 10 in helping the Vols collect a second Quad 1 victory on the young season. It’s that Fulkerson did it on an evening Chandler, the jitterbug freshman guard who stirs Tennessee’s drink offensively, was mediocre. Chandler went 2-for-14 from the floor, coughed the ball up three times, and finished with just 4 assists. In Tennessee’s prior 2 losses — games where Chandler was, to be fair, worse than “mediocre” — the Vols simply couldn’t survive without their freshman point guard.

John Fulkerson reminded everyone that he is an all-SEC caliber player and, in the process, the Vols should have gained the belief that they can win even when their point guard isn’t at his best.

Keeping that guy around for SEC play could result in Rick Barnes winning another league crown. It could also lead to something Vols fans covet even more: a first Final Four.

Texas A&M: Get 2 quality wins in January 

The Aggies are 11-2, which is a strong start, but there’s just one little problem for Buzz Williams’ team. They haven’t beaten anybody. The Aggies are 0-2 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, with a perfect mark against Quad 3 and Quad 4. The good news? The SEC is a deep league and quality win opportunities litter the league schedule. For Buzz and the Aggies to merit serious NCAA Tournament consideration in Williams’ 3rd season in College Station, they’ll need some resume-boosting victories in January.

Two great opportunities? How about a Jan. 8 home date with Arkansas, which would give Texas A&M a Quad 2 win, and a Jan. 19 Quad 1 opportunity at home against Kentucky? The Aggies also play at Arkansas and at LSU in January, and draw South Carolina at home, meaning they’ll have 5 opportunities to get Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins in the first month of league play. Claiming 2 of those games should be a resolution for a program that really needs a momentum boost after making a splash hire bringing in Williams 3 years ago.

Vanderbilt: Find a 3rd option on offense

Jerry Stackhouse has an All-American in Scotty Pippen Jr. and a strong secondary scoring option in forward Jordan Wright. Collectively, they average 31 points per contest. But Vanderbilt ranks just 103rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, and a huge reason for that is the lack of a true third scoring option. Myles Stute, a highly recruited wing who can shoot and has plus athleticism if you can get him downhill, is likely the best option. However, Quentin Millora-Brown has proven to be the team’s best rebounder, and while he lacks much in the way of post moves, he could be an effective rim runner or good for putback buckets. He has to be considered as the other likely option.

But for Vanderbilt to surprise folks and potentially qualify for a postseason tournament, they have to get someone else going offensively.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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