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Cooper Flagg of Duke celebrates during a win over North Carolina.

College Basketball

ACC Tournament: Preview, odds, picks to win the tourney

Derek Peterson

By Derek Peterson

Published:


ACC Tournament action begins on Tuesday with the first round from Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. We’ll see 3 games on the ACC Network on Tuesday, 4 games on the ESPN family of networks on Wednesday, and 4 more on Thursday before the field is whittled to 4. 

After winning its 22nd regular-season title, Duke grabbed the top seed in the tourney and a double-bye. Louisville, Clemson, and Wake Forest each grabbed double-byes as well. But after a regular season that saw them win 19 of their 20 league games, can anyone stand in the way of a Blue Devil sweep?

Last season’s ACC Tournament was the site of NC State’s historic run. The Wolfpack lost 4 straight games heading into the conference tournament, then won 5 straight games in DC to swipe a spot in the NCAA Tournament. NC State upset Duke and North Carolina along the way to its first ACC Tournament title in nearly 40 years. 

Duke won the ACC tourney in 2023, but before that, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech lifted trophies. In recent years, the ACC Tournament has been about surprises. 

Is another in store this season?

Below, you’ll find a full preview of the 2025 ACC Tournament, along with how to bet on the action.

ACC Tournament odds

TeamOdds
Duke-325
Louisville+450
Clemson+550
North Carolina+2200
SMU+5000
Wake Forest+6000
Stanford+20000
Pitt+20000
Georgia Tech+25000
Florida State+25000
Virginia+25000
Virginia Tech+25000
Syracuse+25000
Notre Dame+30000
Cal+30000

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The Favorite — Duke

Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils started 12-0 in league play before running into a speed bump in Clemson on Feb. 8. The Tigers won 77-71 that day, limiting National Player of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg to just 18 points on 17 shots. Flagg had a costly turnover late in the game that loomed large, but it was never easy for the freshman phenom. He took just 5 shots in the first half and finished the game with just 1 assist and 5 boards in 38 minutes. 

Flagg’s brilliance has been the driving force behind Duke’s season. The Blue Devils are able to skate by without a true point guard because of Flagg’s feel for the game. His 4.2 assists per game lead the team, as do his 7.6 rebounds. 

The presumptive No. 1 NBA Draft pick has more than lived up to his billing in his first season with Duke. Despite his youth, he leads all Division I players in win shares per 40 minutes and box plus/minus. He’s also top 5 nationally in PER despite one of the highest usage rates in the ACC. 

Everything runs through him, and the shoulders have been broad enough to handle that burden all season. Flagg had a quiet 15 points in the regular-season finale, but he also provided 9 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 blocks. 

He has scored 20 points in 14 games, and exploded for 42 against Notre Dame back in January. He has 7 double-doubles and 14 games with at least 5 assists. Flagg enters the postseason shooting 37.7% on 3s and 53.8% on 2s. You can’t double him because he’ll find the right pass to beat it. And you can’t defend him 1-on-1. 

And around one of the most skilled players in the country is a collection of lethal shooters, Duke has 3 players taking at least 4 attempts from beyond the 3-point line per game — Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor, and Isaiah Evans. Each of them shoots the 3-ball at a 40% clip. 

Evans is knocking down 44.4% of his triples off the bench. Proctor makes 40.1% on nearly 6 attempts a game. Knueppel makes 40.0% on the same volume. Guard Sion James has only taken 54 3s all season, but even he has made 42.6% of his attempts. 

Per KenPom, Duke has the second-best adjusted offensive rating in the country and the fourth-best adjusted defensive rating. The Blue Devils rank third in effective field goal percentage for and second against. The don’t turn the basketball over (top 20) and rebound nearly 36% of their misses (top 30). They’re the tallest team in the country and still defend the 3-point line as well as anyone. 

RELATED: Not only is Duke the favorite to win the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils are also among the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament at most major betting apps. Saturday Down South will have you covered on all the latest odds to win March Madness all month long.

Who will win — Duke

Following the Clemson loss, Duke won each of its final 8 games by an average of 29.5 points per game. That included 4 straight victories by at least 33 points. The Blue Devils took a break from beating the ACC to a pulp and, on Feb. 22, beat the Giordano’s out of Illinois in a neutral-site game. Duke had absolutely no equal in the ACC during the regular season. Clemson won by 6 (at home), but beating Duke a second time doesn’t seem likely. According to Bart Torvik, the Blue Devils have a 73% chance to win the ACC Tournament title. No other power conference favorite has better than a 52% chance to win their respective league tournament. 

Bet to consider: Duke -320 to win the ACC Tournament via Caesars

A 5-8 seed that can make the title game — SMU

The Mustangs went 13-7 against league competition, beat an SEC team in out-of-conference play, and almost beat another. They did, however, get hammered by Duke and go 0-4 against the top 4 finishers in the league. Clemson won by 11 in Dallas. Wake Forest won by 11 in Dallas. Louisville won by 25 in Dallas. And Duke won by 27 in Dallas. At no point this season has SMU shown it can beat top-rated teams. 

But the Ponies do several things quite well. They have a top-35 offense in KenPom’s efficiency metrics thanks to elite 3-point shooting (38%, 16th nationally) and outstanding offensive rebounding (37.2% rate, 10th). SMU is quite selective with its 3s, but knocks them down at a high enough clip to make opponents respect them from distance. 

The Mustangs have an experienced roster (27th in D1 experience) and enough height to bother teams. They also have 6 players averaging double-digit points on a nightly basis. The rotation is fairly limited, with 6 guys all averaging north of 20 minutes and only 2 more clearing 10 per game, but the points come from everywhere. Boopie Miller averages 13.4 points and 5.7 assists per game.  

SMU is +6500 to win the tournament at bet365.

A 10-15 seed that can make the title game — Pitt

Jeff Capel’s group went just 8-12 in league play to finish with the 13-seed in the ACC tourney. They lost 4 straight league games after a 3-0 start, a slide that began with a 29-point beatdown at Duke. They lost 4 more in a row from Feb. 1-11. They suffered through another 4-game losing streak before ending the season on a high note with a 93-67 win over Boston College. 

But even with a losing record in a bad ACC, the Panthers have a top-60 net rating, per KenPom. They took Clemson to overtime, lost to Louisville by 4, lost to Wake Forest by 2, and lost to North Carolina by 1. Of the 14 losses this season, seven of them came by 6 points or less. Pitt also won 7 games after entering the halftime break trailing. Pitt’s potential opponents through the quarterfinals — Notre Dame, North Carolina, Wake Forest — went 3-1 against the Panthers this season, but the Panthers had a plus-1 point differential in those 4 games. 

Two guards lead the way for the Panthers — Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett. Both play 35 minutes a game. Both score 16 points a game. Lowe has at least 15 points in 6 of his last 8, including 20 against NC State on the road and 25 against Georgia Tech. Leggett was the ACC’s Sixth Man of the Year last season and landed a spot on the all-tourney team after scoring 30 points in Pitt’s opening game. 

In the win over Boston College, Capel inserted 6-foot-3 freshman guard Brandin Cummings into the starting lineup and the result was a positive one. Cummings produced 16 points and 5 assists, helping the Panthers jump out to an early 15-4 lead. Lowe had 15 points and 10 assists. Leggett scored 14 points while knocking down 4 of his 7 triples. 

That 3-guard look could inject some energy into what’s already a top-40 offense, according to KenPom.

Pitt is +25000 to win the tournament at DraftKings.

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.

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