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Duke and Alabama are on a collision course to meet in the Elite Eight in Newark on Saturday, with the winner earning a trip to the Final Four.
But first, both teams have a little business to get out of the way.
The Crimson Tide are 5.5-point favorites against BYU, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, for Thursday’s first East Region semifinal matchup at Prudential Center. The top-ranked Blue Devils are an even more solid favorite, giving up 9.5 points to Arizona.
But if March Madness has taught us anything over the years, even in a year like this in which chalk has prevailed more than usual, there’s no such thing as a sure thing. So it’s entirely possible for one or both of the region’s top-2 seeds to get sent home before their time.
The question is, which one should be on the highest level of upset alert?
Let’s take a look at the matchups and break it down:
Why Alabama Should Be Worried
The Crimson Tide have an SEC pedigree, Final Four experience and a dynamic leader with the clutch gene in Mark Sears. Add to that the fact that Grant Nelson’s knee, in the words of coach Nate Oats, is “about as close to 100% as it can be at this point in the NCAA Tournament.”
Slam dunk, right?
Not so fast.
In BYU, Alabama isn’t just playing a dangerous opponent that has won 11 of its last 12 games since early February, with the only loss coming to second-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Tournament championship game. It’s playing a team that will feel right at home playing the high-scoring, high-octane kind of pace the Crimson Tide will want to dictate.
Alabama is the highest-scoring team in the nation at 90.8 points per game and ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo rankings at 75.0. But Kevin Young’s Cougars aren’t far behind in either category at 81.2 ppg and 67.4 in adjusted tempo. They’re also the top 3-point shooting team among the 16 that are still alive in the tournament, averaging just under 11 per game.
They’re deep, long and balanced, with only 2 players in their 9-man rotation – junior guard Richie Saunders and 6-9 freshman point guard Egor Demin – averaging in double figures.
That’s why, in Oats’ estimation, how his team plays on the defensive end of the floor will likely be the determining factor in whether it advances or not.
No matter what it does offensively.
“Hopefully we continue to play well on offense, but our defense is going to have to be at an elite level with BYU,” Oats said at a pre-Sweet 16 media availability on Wednesday. “They’re in transition, they’re good in the halfcourt, they’re good on the boards. They’re pretty much good at everything. So our defense will get tested against these guys.”
While BYU comes into the game playing its best basketball of the season, Alabama has been trending in the opposite direction. It’s not as if the Crimson Tide have been playing poorly. They did win at then-No. 1 Auburn in their regular-season finale.
But since starting 21-3 and being ranked No. 2 in the nation, they were just 4-5 heading into the NCAA Tournament while allowing at least 90 points 5 times. They also trained 15th-seeded Robert Morris well into the second half of their Tournament opener before rallying to win by 9.
Bama might not be so fortunate if it has to play catchup against BYU on Thursday.
Why Duke should be worried
If Cooper Flagg plays his usual Cooper Flagg game and Tyrese Proctor keeps making 6-7 3-pointers a game at a 90% clip as he did in the Blue Devils’ first 2 NCAA Tournament, it doesn’t matter who they play.
Lights out. They’re going to win.
Even if Proctor does cool down from his heater, Jon Scheyer’s team has any number of other ways to beat you. Especially with the potential for injured defensive specialist Maliq Brown to return for Thursday’s game against Arizona.
That, along with the fact that Duke has already beaten the Wildcats hy 14 this season – in Tucson, no less, is why FanDuel is giving the Blue Devils the lowest odds (+210) for cutting down the nets in San Antonio next week.
So what, if anything, can Arizona do to slow down Duke and pull off the upset? It can start by showing the Blue Devils a little Love.
That’s Love, as in the Wildcats’ leading scorer Caleb Love.
The fifth-year guard has experience breaking Duke’s heart. In 2022, while playing for rival North Carolina, he scored 22 points to help spoil Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game at Cameron Indoor Stadium before delivering an even more painful blow by going off for 28 in the Final Four rematch that sent Coach K into retirement.
But while Love is fully capable of shooting this Duke team out of the tournament as well, he’s just as likely to bring his own team down as he did by going 0-for-9 from 3-point range against Clemson in last year’s Sweet 16 elimination. Love was also 1-of-9 from beyond the arc and 3-of-13 overall in Arizona’s 69-55 loss to the Blue Devils on Nov. 22.
Aside from shooting better than it did in November – not just Love, but everyone – the Wildcats’ best chance is getting Flagg into early foul trouble and keeping him on the bench for long stretches. Junior forward Tobe Awaka will likely draw the assignment of guarding the National Player of the Year favorite. But it will take a team effort to contain a Duke team that has won its first 2 Tournament games by 20 or more points and put the young Blue Devils under some game pressure with their season on the line.
Who’s in greater danger?
The bottom line is that both Duke and Alabama should take care of business and set up an epic Elite Eight showdown. But given the matchups and the trends, the Crimson Tide figure to be in greater upset danger.
Then again, this is March. So it’s just as possible that both teams could end up at home watching BYU and Arizona instead of playing one another with the Final Four on the line.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
