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After a 5-7 start to the hoops season, we’ve found our form a bit. Kentucky running out of steam on the road against Texas was all that stood in the way of a 6-0 week. It was an informative data point, though. I’m having a horrible time betting on Kentucky over the last month. The Wildcats have appeared in this space in 4 of their last 6 games and I’m 1-3 on those plays.
But Kentucky has also just been extremely volatile over the last 2 months. Mark Pope’s bunch is 3-5 in its last 8, with a pair of wins over Tennessee, a near upset of Alabama, and a 10-point loss to Arkansas at home. Over its last 8, Kentucky is 3-1 against the spread as an underdog and 1-3 as a favorite.
I’m going to be avoiding Kentucky until it gets healthy.
The midweek SEC slate this week features 3 games on Tuesday and 3 on Wednesday. It is remarkably balanced, with a ranked-on-ranked game each night, the No. 2 team in America hitting the court on Tuesday, and the No. 1 team in America playing on Wednesday. Here’s how I’m betting on the fixtures.
2024-25 record: 12-9
Last week: 5-1
Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred sports betting apps. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.
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Florida -15 vs. Oklahoma (-110 via bet365)
The Gators have won 4 straight, all of them by at least 9 points, to rise to No. 2 in the latest AP poll. In Saturday’s 88-67 win over South Carolina, Thomas Haugh scored a career-best 20 points on 6-of-10 shooting. Reuben Chinyelu pitched in 10 points on 5-of-6 shooting in 26 minutes. Center Micah Handlogten played his first minutes for Florida since a devastating leg injury in the SEC Tournament title game almost a year ago and finished with 2 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in 20 minutes.
Even without Alex Condon (ankle), Florida’s bigs dominated the Gamecocks.
Condon will not play against the Sooners on Tuesday, but I see no reason why Florida’s frontcourt can’t have a similarly overwhelming performance. Oklahoma doesn’t have the personnel to handle bigger teams.
LSU‘s Daimion Collins scored a career-high 22 points in 23 minutes while making 8 of his 10 shots against OU on Saturday. It was the fourth-year forward’s first career 20-point game.
In OU’s loss to Mizzou on Feb. 12, Mark Mitchell scored 25 points in 31 minutes while making 6 of his 12 shots from the field and 13 of 18 foul shots. Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell combined for 23 points, 6 assists, and 6 blocks on 8-of-12 shooting in Auburn‘s win over OU on Feb. 4. Vanderbilt‘s Devin McGlockton scored 22 points in 25 minutes on 8-of-13 shooting against the Sooners. All throughout SEC play, bigs have had big games against an Oklahoma rotation that just doesn’t have a ton of size.
The Sooners are reeling, having lost 4 straight. They’ve been largely uncompetitive in games against KenPom top-15 teams this season, with a 1-6 record overall and an average margin of nearly 18 points in the 6 defeats. The closest OU has come to a signature win in league play was a 2-point home loss to Texas A&M, a game in which Brycen Goodine scored 34 points off the bench thanks to a 9-of-11 day from 3. Florida has the third-best 3-point defense in the country. This should be a blowout.
Texas A&M +3.5 at Mississippi State (-115 via ESPN Bet)
The Aggies have won 5 straight and 7 of their last 8. Five of those wins across the 8-game stretch have been of the “grind it out” variety. A&M has topped 70 points only twice. Buzz Williams’ group is a poor first-shot offense, but it is finding a groove of late. The Aggies keep opponents on the perimeter on defense and then hammer teams on the offensive glass to rebound their own misses. Over the last 8, A&M has outscored 7 opponents in the paint and won the rebounding battle every time. They’re a road underdog here, but A&M already has wins over 4 other KenPom top-30 teams away from home this season, so I’m not worried about backing them. Mississippi State gives up 10.5 offensive rebounds per game and really struggles to hit the kinds of shots Texas A&M forces teams to take. The Bulldogs take 3s on 41.9% of their overall shot attempts (111th nationally) but only hit them at a 31.5% clip (306th). I don’t think either of these teams are really capable of separating from one another and staying that way, so I’m looking for a tight game in the high 60s, low 70s.
Mizzou-Alabama total over 171 (play to 175)
The battle between Mizzou and Alabama on Wednesday will be a stark contrast to the one between A&M and Mississippi State on Tuesday. The Tigers rank 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Crimson Tide rank third. And both of these defenses rank outside the top 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Mizzou doesn’t operate at the same break-neck pace that Alabama does, but it does have shooters who will thrive in a free-flowing kind of game. The Tigers also do well to force live-ball turnovers, something that has been a persistent issue for Alabama all year. Mizzou’s 4-man lineups with Anthony Robinson II (40% 3-point shooter), Caleb Grill (47%), Tamar Bates (39%), and Mark Mitchell are pulverizing opponents (plus-51.1 net rating, per EvanMiya) and we should see those guys working together a ton against the Crimson Tide. Alabama has scored at least 85 points in 18 of its 25 games this season, including each of the last 5. Alabama has also given up 85 or more points 8 times. We should see 2 outstanding offenses get after it.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
