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We have just 3 more days of regular-season SEC basketball before the conference tournament gets rolling. Selection Sunday is less than 2 weeks away, and there are still quite a few SEC teams fighting for their postseason lives. Someone’s bubble could quite literally burst during the midweek slate this week, which will see 5 games on Tuesday and 3 on Wednesday.
Here’s how I’m betting on the window.
2024-25 record: 19-11
Last week: 5-1
Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred betting apps. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.
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Texas A&M-Auburn total under 149.5 points (-110 via BetMGM)
While Auburn does give up its fair share of offensive boards (10.8 a game), good luck scoring on the Tiger defense. Auburn ranks 10th nationally in effective field goal percentage against, swarms the perimeter to force contested 3s, and blocks a ton of looks at the rim. Auburn allows 29.4% on 3s this season (eighth nationally) and blocks 17% of its opponents’ shots (third nationally). Teams don’t get in-rhythm looks (fourth in assist rate allowed) and have to lean heavily on 2s and foul shots. Texas A&M, an atrocious 3-point shooting team, might be able to get to the line a ton, but there’s no guarantee those shots will go down. A&M ranks 272nd nationally in team free throw percentage. At home, the Aggies are going to have to lean on their defense to muck the game up and keep it low-possession. Auburn is comfortable playing any type of way. The Tigers make enough plays on the offensive end of the floor to create some distance late. I’m looking for a 76-69 kind of game.
Georgia +1.5 at South Carolina (-115 via FanDuel)
Georgia faces a dangerous South Carolina on the heels of its biggest win this year. The Gamecocks had looked dangerous at home leading into Saturday’s matchup with Arkansas, but they hadn’t been able to consistently translate that into results. Conference play opened with 13 straight defeats before a win over Texas on Feb. 22. The Gamecocks hammered the Razorbacks for their second win of the season, holding Arkansas to just 3 points through the first 10 minutes of the game while getting 35 points from Collin Murray-Boyles. Georgia isn’t quite as limited as Arkansas was, and you best believe coach Mike White has told his team — who is fighting to get off the bubble just like Arkansas — to take South Carolina seriously. Georgia has won 2 straight. It followed up a huge win over Florida with a lopsided win over Texas on the road. Georgia’s offense is challenged, but South Carolina’s penchant for turnovers should provide some easier looks. I like the Bulldogs in this spot as the surging team with everything still to play for. South Carolina followed up its first conference win of the season with a 30-point loss 3 days later. The win over Arkansas was nice, but I think it said much more about Arkansas.
Mizzou -3.5 at Oklahoma (play to Mizzou -5.5)
Oklahoma has had a problem with aggressive bigs all year, so I’m not entirely sure how the Sooners slow down Mark Mitchell. The 6-8 forward scored 31 points against Alabama on Feb. 19 and is coming off a 20-point performance in the overtime loss to Vanderbilt. Mizzou has lost 2 of 3 since that massive victory over the Crimson Tide and now it’ll play a second consecutive road game. The Tigers are a little wobbly, but they’re still more trustworthy than Oklahoma, which has lost 7 of its last 9. The Sooners have answered a 6-point win over Mississippi State by taking and then blowing last-minute leads against Kentucky and Ole Miss. Despite being on the bubble, there likely won’t be much of a homecourt advantage for OU inside Lloyd Noble Center with Porter Moser’s squad sitting at 4-12 in conference play. OU lost by 24 points the first time these 2 teams met, and Mitchell scored 25 points while making 13 of his 18 free throw attempts. The Tigers were bad from 3 that day (4-of-12) and still won by 20-plus.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
