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The Sweet 16 begins on Thursday. All 4 of the top seeds in the field are still alive, as are 3 of the 4 2-seeds.
March Madness has provided us with a power conference who’s who in the regional semifinals. The SEC has a record 7 teams through to the round. The Big Ten and Big 12 have 4 each. And the ACC has its bona fide title contender still trucking. Three of the 8 games have point spreads north of 7. We have a game with a total in the 130s and a game with a total in the 170s. Are we going to see heavyweights trading blows? Are we going to see the 1-seeds flex and advance?
I broke down the 6 SEC games on Tuesday. Below are my best bets for the Sweet 16.
2024-25 record: 22-22
Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred betting apps. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.
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Alabama team total over 88.5 points (-155 via BetMGM)
This matchup between Alabama and BYU should be one of the most electric games of the entire postseason. Both want to push the pace, fire off 3s, and get to the rim. Alabama doesn’t need any help scoring, but BYU will offer some all the same. The Cougars give opponents 3s on 45% of their shots and give up 35% shooting on those attempts (248th nationally). The defense rebounds well, but it doesn’t force turnovers, nor does it have an elite shot-blocker.
The Tide have scored 170 points in their 2 NCAA Tournament games thus far and that’s with Mark Sears shooting just 10 for 27 from the field. Sears has only made 1 of his 9 attempts from 3 in the tournament and the Tide are still rolling on the offensive end. They’re averaging 1.223 points per possession in the tourney. BYU is coming off a defensive performance that surrendered 12 triples in regulation. With a spot in the Elite Eight on the line, this feels like the perfect spot for Sears to bust out of his shooting slump.
Florida -6.5 vs. Maryland (-110 via ESPN Bet)
The Gators are 0-2 ATS to begin the tournament and that has led to some action on the Maryland side of this matchup. I actually think the 0-2 start provides the perfect opportunity to jump on the Gators here. Prior to the tournament, Florida covered the number in 6 straight games. Maryland, meanwhile, is coming off a 1-point win over Colorado State that featured a game-winner from Derik Queen at the buzzer. The Terps have virtually no depth and rely almost exclusively on their starting 5, dubbed the “Crab Five.” Florida has an unbelievable offense, yes, but the Gators can flex their defensive improvement in this matchup. Florida has the size in the frontcourt to give Queen problems. Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten, and Thomas Haugh can all make life tough on Queen. And Florida’s physicality will test the Terps’ ability to defend without fouling. I still have the Gators as the best team in basketball, and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walter Clayton Jr.
Houston-Purdue total over 132.5 points (-110 via BetMGM)
Purdue’s turnover issues and bad shot defense are going to force the Boilermakers to chase here. And that’ll mean Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer will need to make 3s. Both of these teams move at a snail’s pace, to be clear. According to KenPom, Purdue’s adjusted tempo ranks 299th in the country while Houston ranks 359th. The possessions are going to be low, but Purdue’s defense gives up a ton of looks from 3 and Houston makes 3s at a better clip (39.8%) than any other team in the country. The Boilermakers have also been fast and loose with the basketball in their previous 2 tournament games. They had 17 giveaways against McNeese and 7 in the opener against High Point. Houston ranks 18th nationally in forced turnover rate, so defense-to-offense might be fruitful for the Cougs in this matchup. And LJ Cryer is hot, which presents another problem for the Boilers. In the second round against Gonzaga, Cryer scored 30 points while making 6 of his 11 shots from 3 and all 8 of his attempts from the foul line. Cryer rips the nets from 3 and drives to score. Purdue doesn’t block anything and gives up better than 56% shooting on 2s. Tendencies suggest a low-scoring game, but I’m not sure Purdue is going to get many stops.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
