Betting Stuff: Best Bets for the SEC Tournament title between Florida, Tennessee

The SEC Tournament has been unkind to this column. Texas fouled to extend a 9-point game with 8 seconds left and lost by 11 when we had Texas +10.5. It has been one of those weeks.

From an entertainment standpoint, though, the SEC has put a product on display this week that is second to none. The basketball has been high level all throughout the tournament. The semifinal matchup between Auburn and Tennessee on Saturday had a Final Four kind of energy to it. The title fight between Florida and Tennessee on Sunday should have the same kind of atmosphere.

Florida is playing for its first tournament crown since 2014. Tennessee is playing for its second in 4 years.

Here’s how I’m betting on the game.

2024-25 record: 22-20

Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred betting apps. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.

Tennessee +4.5 vs. Florida (-110 via BetMGM)

I will state for the record that I believe Florida wins this game, but I also think this might be a spot to fade the Gators. At the time of writing, Florida was taking a little more than three-quarters of the moneyline bets and close to 70% of the spread bets at BetMGM. The darlings at the outset of the SEC Tournament have been outright dominant through their first 2 games. The catch: They’ve played 2 teams that don’t compare in any way whatsoever to the group they’ll face in the title game. Neither Mizzou (73rd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom) nor Alabama (30th) holds a candle to what Tennessee (third) does on the defensive end of the floor. Both outfits are content to play in high-possession games. Tennessee makes teams work for every single second of the shot clock. And Tennessee has the right kind of personnel to muck up Florida’s operation. The Gator guards — Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin — have been marvelous in the SEC Tournament. That trio has scored 53% of Florida’s points and they have combined to shoot 59% from the field. When they line up across from the Vols, they’ll see the Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC (Zakai Zeigler) and the guy who leads the SEC in defensive box plus/minus (Jahmai Mashack). On Friday, Mashack limited Tre Johnson, one of the best pure scorers in the country, to 11 points on 3-of-8 shooting. Zeigler helped hold Auburn’s 2 point guards, Denver Jones and Tahaad Pettiford, to 10 points on 1-of-14 shooting. Alex Condon hasn’t gotten rolling yet for Florida during this tourney run, but he hasn’t had to. If he has to take a larger role in the title game, Tennessee has answers for that too. The last time these 2 teams met, we saw Tennessee completely take the Gator guards away. Even when Florida demolished Tennessee in the first meeting, the guards were held in check. Florida is going to have to work for it.

Florida team total under 74.5 points (-135 via DraftKings)

Even in blowouts, neither of these teams have scored more than 73 points in the 2 matchups this season. Possessions have been aplenty through Florida’s first 2 games (146 total) while Tennessee has limited its opposition to 123 total possessions. The 3-pointer hasn’t been there for either Texas or Auburn. Florida is not a great 3-point shooting team to begin with, and if the guards are stymied by Tennessee’s perimeter defenders, the Gators are going to have to win this with their defense. KenPom projects 73 points for Florida. EvanMiya projects 73 points for Florida. Bart Torvik projects 71 points. The models are all saying the same thing, and that matches with what we’ve seen these sides do against each other in their 2 previous matchups.

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.