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We have a full slate of SEC action in college basketball on Saturday. Eight games stretch from noon to 9 p.m. ET. The schedule features 3 ranked-on-ranked matchups. Two ranked teams are going on the road to face unranked opponents. And then there’s the return of coach John Calipari to Rupp Arena.
Below are the 3 bets I’m making on Saturday’s SEC action.
2024-25 record: 5-7
Missouri team total over 70.5 points (-140 via DraftKings)
Over the last 2 weeks, Mizzou has 2 of the most impressive results you’ll find on any résumé in the SEC at this point. The Tigers went to Gainesville and beat Florida 83-82 on Jan. 14. Last weekend, they welcomed Ole Miss to town and won 83-75. The 83 points Mizzou scored were the second-most Ole Miss has allowed in regulation all season. The Tigers have an exceptional offense, one that ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency and 25th in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom. Mizzou is phenomenal at getting to the free throw line. Nearly a quarter of the Tigers’ points come from free throws this season. The Tigers are also wonderful at turning teams over, with a steal rate that ranks sixth nationally. Against a Mississippi State team that loves to take 3s and crash the glass, Mizzou should have plenty of opportunities to run — be it off of misses or giveaways — and attack the basket. It’s worth pointing out that Mississippi State coach Chris Jans has a quick hook when his guys get into foul trouble, so that’ll be an area to watch as the Bulldogs try to defend a team that relentlessly hunts foul shots. Mississippi State had 2 strong defensive performances against 2 so-so offenses in Tennessee and South Carolina. Alabama scored 88 on the Bulldogs. Ole Miss scored 81. Kentucky scored 95. All 3 did so in Starkville. This will also be Mizzou’s only game of the week, so the rotation should be rested and the gameplan should be dialed in.
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South Carolina +5.5 vs. Texas A&M (-110 via bet365)
Since getting flattened by Alabama on Jan. 8, South Carolina has been excruciatingly close to its first league win. The Gamecocks lost to Auburn by 3 at home on Jan. 11, then by 3 to Vanderbilt on the road 4 days later. They lost by 1 point at home to Florida on Jan. 22 and then lost by 5 in overtime to Mississippi State on Jan. 25. They’re back home on Saturday against the Aggies, who have won big games and blown big leads in recent weeks. Texas A&M really struggles on offense, yet still manages to sit inside the KenPom top 35 for offensive efficiency thanks to the nation’s leading offensive rebounding rate. They get a ton of shots blocked, shoot horribly from 3, shoot poorly at the foul line, and turn the ball over at a relatively high rate. If the Gamecocks can hold up on the boards, they have a chance to keep this game within striking distance. The offense is going to be laborious, it just can’t turn the basketball over. South Carolina is top-100 in rebounding rate this season. So long as that holds, the Gamecocks will find themselves with another chance.
Kentucky -10.5 vs. Arkansas (-115 via ESPN Bet)
The John Calipari Bowl arrives at long last. Kentucky comes into the matchup roaring after scoring 78 points in Knoxville during a 5-point win over Tennessee. And maybe more impressive was the fact the Wildcats did so without Lamont Butler and with just a single minute from Andrew Carr. Jaxson Robinson, Otega Oweh, and Koby Brea combined for 49 points, 13 assists, and 3 blocks. They were outstanding. Before the loss to Kentucky, the Volunteers had faced 3 SEC opponents at home and allowed an average of just 55 points a game. But the Vols looked broken on offense and Kentucky took full advantage. The same could very well happen Saturday in Lexington against an Arkansas offense that ranks 100th in efficiency, per KenPom. The Razorbacks were ill-fitting as a unit before guard Boogie Fland was lost for the season to an injury. Now, they have to lean on athleticism and rebounding to have a chance. If Andrew Carr (who is off the injury report entirely for this game) looks closer to 100%, Kentucky will be better for it on the glass. Arkansas will have a tough time guarding the actions Mark Pope runs and I think the former Kentucky guys who are also coming back — Adou Thiero, DJ Wagner, and Zvonimir Ivisic — might come out looking to force the issue. Kentucky has had issues this season playing down to competition — 0-5 ATS against unranked power conference opponents — but given everything surrounding this game, the Hogs should get Kentucky’s full focus.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
