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A truly historic season in the SEC wraps on Saturday. While there isn’t much to play for at the top — the regular-season crown has already been awarded, and 3 of the 4 double-byes for the SEC Tournament are already locked up — there should be plenty of drama throughout the day. We get Pt. 2 of the Iron Bowl of Basketball. We get a ranked-on-ranked battle in CoMo. And we get several matchups with major bubble implications.
Here’s how I’m betting on the window.
2024-25 record: 20-13
Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred betting apps. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.
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Auburn -7.5 vs. Alabama (-112 via DraftKings)
Both teams are coming off a loss. While I’m not overly concerned about Alabama‘s recent slide — 2-4 in its last 6 — it does look like the Crimson Tide are coasting into postseason play a bit. Auburn‘s most recent defeat came in conjunction with an absence from Denver Jones — who is expected to be available. The Tigers won the first meeting in Tuscaloosa by 9 points and controlled the entirety of the game. At home, they’re seeking a record-setting victory to cap a title-winning regular season. Alabama just doesn’t have the same level of motivation, and that could be a problem in a particularly hostile environment. The Tide certainly don’t have offensive issues, but they’ve given up 90-plus points in 3 of their last 6 games. Auburn did it once. I think Auburn can do it again. And I’m not sure Alabama will get up if the Tigers jump out to a big, early lead.
Arkansas-Mississippi State total under 149.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Though it was once again missing Adou Thiero, Arkansas exploded for 90 points against Vanderbilt on Tuesday. While they’ve been mediocre on that side of the court all season, the defensive performance from the Commodores was particularly shambolic. In the previous game, Arkansas looked completely discombobulated on offense without Thiero’s skillset. I think we’ll see a Razorback offense that regresses back to the mean a bit. We’ve seen 2 extremes from Arkansas — on one end against a South Carolina team that plays particularly well at home, and on the other end against a Vandy team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency throughout conference play. (The Dores’ 116 defensive rating in league play would rank 333rd in the country if extrapolated over an entire season.) Mississippi State is better (though not great) and I expect a closer fight. Neither of these teams shoots the 3-ball well, and neither really wants to sprint up and down the floor. This game could be clunky at times.
South Carolina team total under 58.5 points (-129 via DraftKings)
This is Senior Day for Tennessee, which will honor Jordan Gainey, Chaz Lanier, Jahmai Mashack, Igor Miličić Jr., and Zakai Zeigler. Emotions will be high all throughout Food City Center as the seniors will want to go out on a high note and the crowd will be turned up despite South Carolina’s 2-15 league record. The Vols are 15-1 at home this season and have been grounding offenses all throughout league play. SEC opponents are averaging 64.9 points per game in Knoxville. All 8 SEC teams that have visited Food City Center have been held under their season scoring average, and 5 of them have been held under their season average by 15 points or more. South Carolina averages just 70.2 points per game on the season. The Vols cut off easy 2s and force opponents to jack 3s. Unless Tennessee takes the day off, I don’t anticipate the Gamecocks — an awful 3-point shooting team — to find much rhythm.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
