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The hot spell is officially over. You knew it was coming. After a couple of 5-1 weeks that pushed the season record 8 games over .500, last week was a mess. All 3 weekend picks were a miss and we finished the week a dreadful 1-5. Such is life. But, like Nate Oats has been preaching in recent weeks, a little skid to end the regular season doesn’t necessarily foretell bad things for the postseason. The SEC Tournament offers a chance to rebound and get some momentum going into the start of March Madness.
Wednesday say a quartet of bubble teams playing in Nashville. Three of those 4 won their games to advance to the second round on Thursday. We’ve got 4 more games on March 13. Here’s how I’m betting the slate.
2024-25 record: 20-16
Last week: 1-5
Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred betting apps. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.
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Mississippi State-Mizzou total over 156.5 points (-110 via BetMGM)
All 4 of Wednesday’s first-round games in Nashville went over their projected point total. Overs are 19-12 in Mizzou games this season and they are 20-12 in Mississippi State games. MSU in particular has seen its defense trend in the wrong direction over the last month-plus. Six straight MSU games and 10 of the last 12 have gone over the total. Neither of these groups wants to defend much. Mizzou should hit a ton of 3s against a leaky 3-point defense. Mississippi State should find some success going inside against a Mizzou defense that fouls a ton, doesn’t block many shots, and gives up offensive boards.
Oklahoma +6.5 vs. Kentucky (-105 via DraftKings)
Kentucky’s defense rates 57th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. And the Wildcats have shown a tendency all season to let lesser teams hang in games. The last time these 2 sides met in Norman, Kentucky clung to life at the end and escaped with an 83-82 victory thanks to late-game heroics from Otega Oweh. I like what I’ve heard from Kentucky coach Mark Pope heading into the tournament, but I like even more what I saw from Oklahoma in its first-round game against Georgia. Jeremiah Fears got hot, hitting 8 of his 16 shots to score 29 points. As a team, the Sooners hit 12 of their 25 attempts from 3. They trailed earlier before taking control late in the first half, then trailed again by 6 with a little under 9 minutes to play before battling back in front. The Sooners are playing for extra March Madness security, and I think they give the rested Wildcats a game.
Kentucky F Amari Williams over 12.5 points (-125 via bet365)
While Oklahoma looked better against Georgia, the interior issues were still very much present. Mohamed Wague replaced Sam Godwin in the starting lineup and produced 12 points with 9 boards against only 2 personal fouls. But Georgia big man Asa Newell feasted inside. Newell had 21 points on 9-of-16 shooting and grabbed 17 rebounds. He became the latest in a lengthy line of skilled bigs who have had big days against OU. Amari Williams is one of the most skilled big Oklahoma has seen all year. He had 8 points and 3 boards in 19 minutes in Norman on Feb. 26, but foul trouble was a major limiting factor. Williams has at least 13 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Godwin isn’t listed on the pregame injury report, so he might be back for this one, but that shouldn’t change things for Williams. I like the matchup here so long as he stays on the floor. The Wildcats run a ton of what they do around Williams’ skillset and that should be a productive strategy against the Sooners’ interior defenders.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
