College basketball futures market: Conference title predictions on Kalshi

It’s officially mid-February, which means it’s a great time to check in on the college basketball futures market ahead of the home stretch of the regular season. 

Kalshi is currently offering conference tournament championship markets for all the major leagues across college basketball. As a federally-regulated predictions market, people in all 50 US states can legally use Kalshi to make predictions on everything from college basketball to politics or even the weather. 

Here’s a brief explainer of how Kalshi works: Users can purchase “contracts” to make a prediction on a particular event of their choosing. If the prediction is successful, each contract will be paid out at a rate of exactly $1 per contract purchased. It’s also worth noting that users can sell contracts in their portfolio — at the current market rate — before the prediction has a settled outcome.

For this piece, I’ll be comparing Kalshi’s college basketball prediction markets to projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model. By doing so, we can attempt to calculate the expected value of current prices in the Kalshi marketplace. 

With that process in mind, here are 4 predictions available on Kalshi that currently show positive expected value:

College basketball futures predictions for Feb. 14

ACC Tournament Winner — Louisville — Yes

• Kalshi contracts for $100: 725
• BartTorvik odds: 19.6%
• Expected value: $42.10

Louisville has quietly become a strong contender in the ACC — particularly if Duke were to stumble. The Blue Devils remain heavy favorites, but Pat Kelsey’s team has lost just once since Christmas. The Cardinals and Clemson are both 12-2 in ACC play entering the weekend, but Louisville has a head-to-head win — meaning it’s Louisville who controls its own destiny to the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament. 

Louisville takes a high volume of 3-point attempts, which could lead to the type of volatility that would be required to upset a team like Duke in the postseason. BartTorvik’s model gives the Cardinals roughly a 20% chance to win the conference tournament title, which appears to be a bargain at the current price on Kalshi. 

Big Ten Tournament Winner — Maryland — Yes

• Kalshi contracts for $100: 1,139
• BartTorvik odds: 12.1%
• Expected value: $37.82

Maryland has won 6 of its last 7 games and appears to be surging as it enters the home stretch. The Terps are led by one of the most-skilled bigs in the country in Derik Queen as well as a veteran guard in Ja’Kobi Gillespie. That’s a recipe we’ve seen work very well in the past in March, and it appears there’s some value on the Terps to make a postseason run of their own in 2025.

Since Jan. 17, Maryland has the 17th-best adjusted net rating in the country, per BartTorvik. The Terps are top-30 in both offense and defense over that span, giving balance to their statistical profile. It’s also worth noting that Maryland is led by coach Kevin Willard, who had a couple of strong runs in the Big East Tournament when he was at Seton Hall. Perhaps most-impressively, his Seton Hall team upset eventual-national champion Villanova in the 2016 Big East Tournament title game. 

Big Ten Tournament Winner — Michigan — No

• Kalshi contracts for $100: 134
• BartTorvik odds: 87%
• Expected value: $16.58

One benefit of Kalshi is users can predict against certain outcomes, which is what we’re doing here. The Wolverines are one of the frontrunners in the Big Ten Tournament prediction market on Kalshi, but BartTorvik’s model shows value in forecasting against that result. Michigan enters the weekend ranked just 22nd nationally in KenPom — good enough for only 5th in the Big Ten with a few other programs right on their heels as well.

Michigan has won 5 games in a row, but it’s benefitted from a relatively soft schedule over that stretch. Only 2 of those wins came against teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations (Purdue and Oregon) and both of those victories came at home. Michigan has also lost to the Boilermakers and a bad Minnesota team over the last month.

SEC Tournament Winner — Florida — Yes

• Kalshi contracts per $100: 625
• BartTorvik odds: 17.8%
• Expected value: $11.25

This year’s SEC is as loaded as any college basketball conference in recent memory, but no one should take a back seat to Florida. The Gators are currently tied for 3rd place in the SEC behind Alabama and Auburn. However, the Gators already have a head-to-head road win over the Tigers and will get their shot at the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa on March 5. Florida also has a win over Tennessee and blowout victories over programs like Texas and Georgia on its résumé.

The Gators enter the weekend in the top 10 of adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They’re 1 of just 3 schools in the country who can say that and the other 2 (Duke and Houston) reside outside the SEC. Florida is also getting a potentially-big boost this weekend as center Micah Handlogten returns from injury. Handlogten has yet to play this season, but the 7-footer started 32 games last season for the Gators before suffering an injury in last year’s SEC Tournament. Handlogten is a strong defensive rebounder, which has been one of Florida’s only weaknesses during SEC play.

Note: The listed price of Kalshi contracts in each market is as of approximately 1 p.m. ET on Friday, Feb. 14. Those prices are subject to change.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.