Ad Disclosure
Welcome to Champ Week!
Kalshi is currently offering conference tournament championship markets for all major leagues across the sport. Kalshi is a federally-regulated predictions market that is legal in all 50 states. In addition to college basketball, users are able to make predictions on everything from politics to movie reviews to the weather.
Here’s a brief explainer on how Kalshi works: Users purchase “contracts” for the prediction market of their choosing. If the prediction is accurate, each contract will be paid out at a rate of $1 per contract purchased. Also worth noting: Users can sell contracts in their portfolio before the prediction has been settled at the current market rate.
Here are 3 Kalshi predictions to consider for conference tournament week:
Florida to NOT win the SEC Tournament
One differentiator between Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks is users can make predictions against certain outcomes. In this case, a $50 prediction on the Gators to lose in the SEC Tournament would pay out 63 contracts.
In a previous piece, I gave out Florida to win the SEC Tournament. However, Kalshi’s marketplace had the Gators at just a 16% chance to win the conference tournament at that point. The price has increased significantly since then and is now at 24%. The primary reason I’m opting to fade Florida now is the bracket, however. The Gators are 1 of 5 SEC teams who are top-10 in the country in schedule-adjusted efficiency since Feb. 1, per BartTorvik. The way the bracket broke, Florida would likely have to face 3 of them — barring any upsets, of course — in order to win the title. Mizzou and Alabama are both on Florida’s side of the bracket and Auburn or Tennessee will be heavily favored to reach the title game from the other side.
Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Tournament
Michigan State was the standout team in the Big Ten for most of the regular season, but I like where the Badgers are coming into Champ Week. Yes, they’ve lost 3 of their last 5 — including a road game in East Lansing. But per BartTorvik, no Big Ten team has been better than Wisconsin in terms of schedule-adjusted efficiency since Feb. 1. Wisconsin is 12th in the country over that span, just edging out No. 13 Michigan State for that honor.
But according to Kalshi’s marketplace, the Spartans have a 30% chance to win the Big Ten Tournament title while the Badgers are down at just 11%. Not earning a double-bye hurts, but Wisconsin made the title game of this tournament from the exact same position (a No. 5 seed) last season. I don’t view the Big Ten as having a clear top dog, so taking a chance on a dark horse with an elite statistical profile makes sense. And for as good as Tom Izzo’s reputation is in March, this is not a tournament Michigan State has dominated during his tenure. Izzo has made the Final Four (8) more often than he’s won this tournament (6). The last time Michigan State even made the title game was 2019.
As for Wisconsin’s recent losing streak, that’s not enough to scare me off. Starting guard Max Klesmit has missed Wisconsin’s last 3 games and was sorely missed in the loss to Penn State over the weekend. However, he is expected to be cleared to play for the Big Ten Tournament. A $50 prediction for Kalshi to win the Big Ten Tournament would pay out 349 contracts.
Duke to win the ACC Tournament
Duke is a heavy favorite to win the ACC Tournament, and deservedly so. Per Kalshi’s marketplace, the Blue Devils have a 75% chance to get the job done this week. That price has been well-earned — and I think still might be selling the Blue Devils short. Duke has been the No. 1 team in the country in adjusted-efficiency since Feb. 1, per BartTorvik. Only 1 other ACC team (Clemson) is in the top 20.
The Tigers handed Duke its only ACC loss of the season back on Feb. 8. That result was a bit flukey, though. The Blue Devils had a terrible game from 2-point range, shooting just 12-of-31 (39%) from inside the arc. Duke is 12th nationally in 2-point percentage for the full season, so that was a very uncharacteristic performance. I think the Blue Devils will be prepared to exact their revenge should they meet Clemson in the final. And if it’s anyone else, it would require a major upset to beat Duke.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
