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DFS Picks: Top Sleeper plays for Saturday’s college basketball slate (Feb. 8)
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Everyone is gearing up for Super Bowl Sunday, but don’t overlook the schedule on tap across college basketball on Saturday. Eleven teams in the AP Top 25 are on the road facing unranked teams. The Big 12 has a ranked-on-ranked matchup in Tucson between Arizona and Texas Tech. The SEC has a pair of ranked matchups between Texas A&M and Mizzou in Columbia, and between Florida and Auburn inside Neville Arena.
Below, you’ll find 4 player props to consider across the slate. Each of the 4 plays below can be found within the Sleeper app. Use our exclusive Sleeper promo code SOUTHXL to unlock a sign-up offer that scores you $55 in bonus entries when you play your first $5 contest.
Mizzou G Tamar Bates higher than 1.5 3-pointers made
Bates just kept firing away from 3 against Tennessee on Wednesday, taking a season-high 10 3-pointers. He made 4 of them and cleared 20 points for the second time in his last 3 games. The Mizzou offense has been absolutely rolling of late. Even in a loss, 81 points on the road at Tennessee is sensational. The Tigers put 88 on Mississippi State and 83 on Ole Miss. On Saturday against Texas A&M, Mizzou will find a defense that will gladly surrender the 3-pointer. A&M ranks sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and it makes teams play outside-in. The Aggies’ 48.1% 3-point rate forced on defense is one of the 10 highest rates in Division I basketball. Bates has made multiple 3s in 6 of his last 8 games and I expect that to continue against the Aggies. He’s shooting 40% from deep this season.
Florida G Will Richard lower than 11.5 points
Even without Walter Clayton Jr., Florida bounced back from a 20-point loss to Tennessee with an 11-point win over Vanderbilt. Richard was big in that game, taking 7 triples, making 5 of them, and scoring 21 points to lead all scorers. Clayton is expected back for the game against Auburn but Alijah Martin was listed on the team’s injury report heading into the game. I’m curious if Auburn tries to deploy the same gameplan Tennessee used to shut down Florida’s offense last weekend. The Vols made a point to keep the Gator guards from taking over the game and gave the bigs 1-on-1s. Richard took just 2 shots that day and finished with 2 points. The 6-foot-4 guard relies on the perimeter shooting to get himself going, and when the shot has been cold, he has struggled to produce much. Since the start of conference play, Richard is averaging 18 points in games where he makes multiple 3s. In games where he makes fewer than 2 triples, Richard is averaging 7.8 points per game. Since conference play started, Auburn’s 27.9% 3-point defense is the best in the SEC. The Tigers run teams off the line and have the length to cause Florida’s guards issues.
Arkansas G Johnell Davis higher than 15.5 points
Davis has found his footing in the Arkansas offense since Boogie Fland went down with a season-ending injury. After back-to-back 18-point outings against Oklahoma and Kentucky, Davis went for 24 against Texas. Steals have been fueling his offense — with 10 swipes in his last 3 games — and the 3-pointer is starting to fall as Davis looks more and more like the player who carried Florida Atlantic in recent years. Alabama affords an opportunity to run; while Davis has been much more of a perimeter shooter this season with the Hogs, the Crimson Tide will try to funnel him inside. And guards have had big games against this Alabama backcourt in league play so far. Josh Hubbard scored 38 points against the Tide. Zhuric Phelps had 24 for Texas A&M in a loss. Otega Oweh had 21 for Kentucky in a loss. Jordan Sears had 21 in 29 minutes for LSU in a loss. And Jacobi Wright had 20 for South Carolina in a loss.
Duke F Cooper Flagg higher than 31.5 points + rebounds + assists
Since December, Flagg has cleared this 31.5 P+R+A prop in 11 of his 15 outings. In each of the 4 games when he failed to hit this mark, Duke blew out its competition by 20-plus points and Flagg played fewer than 30 minutes. I’m not anticipating a blowout on Saturday when Duke travels to face a Clemson team that grinds the pace of play to a crawl. Duke will need its star. Flagg is averaging 7.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists this season. Both will be important for the Blue Devils to avoid an upset. Clemson has to commit bodies to the boards to deal with Duke’s size. Clemson will also have to worry about Flagg at all times. Flagg’s ability to operate a 2-man game with Kon Knueppel should be a productive path to offense for Duke against the Tigers, but more than anything, his length and skill are going to cause issues for Clemson on defense. They have for everyone all year. Duke doesn’t even run a true point guard because Flagg is so adept at making smart plays when they need to be made. He’s seventh in the ACC this season in assists. Clemson has the physicality to hang in this game, but the skill gap is too much. Flagg is going to make plays.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
