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Two spots in this year’s Final Four. That’s what’s on the line Saturday when Alabama meets Duke and Florida faces Texas Tech. The top 2 seeds in the East Region are still standing, and the West Region will pit No. 1 against No. 3.
Below are 4 DFS picks for Saturday’s games that can be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code (SDS) that will help you earn up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you sign up!
Florida G Walter Clayton Jr. more than 23.5 points + assists
Johnell Davis scored 30 on Texas Tech in the Sweet 16. Bennett Stirtz put 21 and 8 on Tech in the second round. Arizona’s Caleb Love had 27 points on 10-of-15 shooting against the Red Raiders in the Big 12 Tournament several weeks ago. Lead, high-usage guards have been torching the Red Raider defense for weeks. And following Walter Clayton Jr.’s quiet performance in the Sweet 16, I’m looking for a bounceback.
Clayton had just 13 points in a 16-point win over Maryland. He shot 3-for-9 from the field and 2-for-6 from 3 against what was an outstanding Maryland defense. Texas Tech doesn’t have the same caliber of defense. There’s a huge scoring burden on big men JT Toppin and Darrion Williams, and neither of those guys do much to protect the paint at the other end. Tech is outside the top-200 in block rate and gives up 53% of its points on 2s. Teams get to the foul line at a high rate against Tech as well. Be it attacking to score or driving to set the table for teammates, I think Clayton gets back to his dynamo ways. Prior to the Sweet 16, Florida’s star guard had scored at least 22 points in 6 of his previous 7 games.
Texas Tech F JT Toppin lower than 10.5 rebounds
According to KenPom, Texas Tech is 289th in average height. Florida is 78th. The Gators are a top-5 offensive rebounding team and rank 10th nationally in total rebounding rate. The Red Raiders have been solid rebounders all season, but the burden falls squarely on the 6-foot-9 JT Toppin and the 6-foot-6 Darrion Williams. Toppin has double-digit boards in 6 of his last 7 games, but this is asking a lot. Toppin played 37 minutes against Arkansas on Friday — his third straight game with at least 30 minutes of PT. Depth isn’t a strong suit of the Red Raiders, and Florida’s size has the potential to cause problems on the boards.
Duke G Tyrese Proctor lower than 2.5 made 3-pointers
For all its faults, Alabama’s 3-point defense has been excellent this season. According to KenPom, the Tide have the 13th-ranked 3-point defense in the country, giving up just 30.1% shooting to their opponents. The Tide run teams off the 3-point line effectively, allowing a 34.9% 3-point rate. Math isn’t just deployed on the offensive end of the floor for coach Nate Oats. BYU scored 88 points against the Tide, sure, but the sharpshooting Cougars only made 6 of their 30 attempts from 3. No one made more than 2 triples.
I wonder if Alabama’s plan to stop the Blue Devils involves heavy emphasis on smothering those around Cooper Flagg. The dynamic freshman forward has been downright destructive all season. Few teams have the personnel necessary to take him out of his game. Alabama can trade 2s with 3s and feel good about its chances at the end, but that means holding guys like Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel in check. Proctor was on an absolute heater heading into the Sweet 16, with 19 makes from 3 on 30 attempts over his previous 3 games. Arizona held him to 1-of-4 shooting. Proctor has the ability to pop off, but he hasn’t consistently done so this year. Over the 4 games prior to the aforementioned 3-game run, he hit just 3 of his 20 attempts.
Alabama F Grant Nelson lower than 10.5 points
Nelson scored early buckets against BYU and still finished with just 6 points in 26 minutes. It was the fourth time in the last 5 games that Nelson had scored fewer than 10 points. Nelson was ultra-aggressive in the win over Auburn to close out the regular season, but that game looked like more of an exception than a rule. He has been under 10.5 points in 10 of his last 13 games and taken double-digit shot attempts only 3 times since the start of February. And Nelson will have his hands full on the defensive side of the floor dealing with Duke’s Cooper Flagg. The Flagg assignment won’t fall exclusively to Nelson, but he’s going to have to hold up. Duke, the tallest team in the country, demands a level of physicality that will take its toll this deep into the tournament. Alabama isn’t going to shoot 51 triples again, but I don’t think the gameplan shifts that far away from the perimeter guys.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
