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DFS picks: Top Underdog plays for the second round of the NCAA Tournament (March 22)
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The second round of the NCAA Tournament gets rolling on Saturday. We’ll see top seeds Auburn and Houston, as well as first-round darlings Drake and McNeese.
Below are 4 DFS picks for the Saturday slate that can be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code (SDS) that will help you earn up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you sign up!
Arkansas G DJ Wagner more than 2.5 turnovers
The Johnnies have the best defense in the country, according to KenPom. Rick Pitino’s Red Storm force teams to poke and prod and use up one of the larger shares of the shot clock of anyone. They have the 10th-best 2-point defense and block shots at the ninth-highest rate in the country. They also force turnovers at a blistering rate — 21.6%, 16th-best. Kadary Richmond, a 6-foot-6 guard, is an outstanding on-ball defender who averages 2 steals a game over the course of his 5-year career. With Adou Thiero still out and Boogie Fland working his way back into form, DJ Wagner should once again handle a ton of playmaking/ball-handling responsibilities for Arkansas. Wagner has been a capable set-up man in recent weeks, but turnovers have been a constant issue. He has 13 turnovers in his last 4 games and averages 2.3 per game over the course of the entire season. He has at least 3 turnovers in 9 of his last 11 games. The only teams that didn’t turn him over with regularity during that stretch were Vanderbilt (49th in forced turnover rate) and Kansas (285th). With a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line, the pressure will be turned up and St. John’s will be looking to press the issue.
Texas A&M F Pharrel Payne more than 4.5 rebounds
Pharrel Payne was the star of Texas A&M‘s first-round victory over Yale, scoring 25 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in 25 minutes. The aggressiveness from Payne stood in stark contrast to his previous time out, when he took just 2 shots and grabbed just 4 rebounds in 23 minutes in the SEC Tournament. Though Henry Coleman starts, Payne has been the more frequently used 5 for Texas A&M over the last 5 games. And despite his minutes being limited, Payne has been a consistent source of rebounds. He has multiple offensive boards in each of his last 11 appearances, including 5 on Thursday against Yale. He has at least 5 total rebounds in 7 of his last 8 games. Perhaps Payne’s explosion in the first round was a one-time thing, but when the number is this low, I’m taking Payne without much hesitation. Both he and Coleman should rebound the basketball well against Michigan. Though the Wolverines have a pair of 7-footers in the frontcourt, they aren’t a great defensive rebounding team. Michigan allows opponents to rebound 29.7% of their misses, a mark that ranks 204th nationally. They’ve given up 10 offensive rebounds or more 17 times in 35 games.
Texas A&M G Zhuric Phelps lower than 11.5 points
I’m double-dipping in this 4-5 matchup. Zhuric Phelps was a microwave scorer at times throughout the regular season but his confidence seems to be M.I.A. right now. Following a disastrous 3-for-19 shooting performance in the SEC Tournament loss to Texas, Phelps took only 6 shots in the first-round win over Yale and saw just 25 minutes off the bench. He scored 5 points and had 1 assist. He has just 2 makes on his last 16 attempts from 3-point range and has more turnovers in his last 5 games than assists. Phelps needs to get himself going by getting downhill, but that’s not likely to happen against Michigan. The Wolverines have, as previously mentioned, a pair of 7-footers who hang around the rim and though they don’t block a ton of shots, they help anchor what is the nation’s 15th-best 2-point defense. Opponents only shoot 46% on 2s against Michigan and they don’t get to the foul line with much regularity. Phelps scored in double figures in 8 straight games from Feb. 8 through March 4. He moved to the bench for the first time in more than 2 months during that March 4 contest and hasn’t been the same since, averaging 6.3 points per game over his last 3. More than just a cold spell, Phelps seems to be in his head. I like Michigan’s perimeter defenders, and I think they’ll keep Phelps in a funk.
Wisconsin G John Tonje more than 1.5 made 3-pointers
Of the teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament, BYU has the second-worst 3-point defense. The Cougars give up 35% to opponents on 3-pointers, which ranks 250th in the country. Only Baylor allows a higher percentage. According to KenPom, BYU has a top-10 offense and the 69th-ranked defense. The defensive structure gives up a ton of 3-point looks — 26.1 a game, 336th nationally — and that’s a problem against a player like John Tonje who needs few excuses to let it fly from deep. Tonje is a career 38% shooter from 3. This season, 49.6% of his attempts come from beyond the arc, and he’s making 39% of them. Against Michigan State on March 15, Tonje scored 32 points while making 4 of his 10 triples. A day earlier, he scored 26 on a perfect 6-for-6 shooting from deep. He has multiple made 3s in 6 of his last 7 games and in 21 of his 36 overall appearances this season.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
